CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Invts before a major storm seem to be a thing, PWM invts usually means we get crushed soon here in SNE, so ACY congrats DC South seems to be the case so far. Euro has been locked in, unless we see a major change next 2 days....... I don't quite buy the sampling stuff with all the satellite data that the Euro assimilates, only area I would say is suspect is the Arctic with all the cold reflectivities as Will pointed out. Because the satellite data over the arctic is terrible. Why do you think we see jumps inside day 5 all the time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 one of the s/w's originates near the north pole. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Maybe santa's elves can assist with sending that further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Boy ... if these things ever had a conscious behind them, this one definitely doesn't want people predicting it i think we left out the 3rd hexagonal gyre over the south pole of Saturn... yeah, that'd real nail it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Because the satellite data over the arctic is terrible. Why do you think we see jumps inside day 5 all the time? Yeah the cold temps and the angle through the atmosphere (more atmosphere to sample and parallax issues) really degrades the data quality. I mean it’s better than nothing, but still leaves some room for sampling errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Lack of wiping on the euro I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Definitely looks worse in Canada than the 00z run. The southern stream is stronger but I don't think it outweighs what is going on to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: Maybe santa's elves can assist with sending that further south. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Not this run, Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The phasing is slower this run too. We'll see if that affects anything in later panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 It's a complete disaster in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah the cold temps and the angle through the atmosphere (more atmosphere to sample and parallax issues) really degrades the data quality. I mean it’s better than nothing, but still leaves some room for sampling errors. wouldn't it be funny if this whole mess turned out to be like ...90 % an N/stream deal ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 This one goes in the worse then 0z category, This won't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's a complete disaster in Canada. Pretty big difference from 00z and it's not for the better. The good news is that as long as the changes are kind of big, they can happen in the other direction too. But we will want to see some improvement by early Friday I think....so like 3 more cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Really sharp differences at H5 from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Ugly run. RIC smokes cirrus...ok maybe a flurry but damn.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty big difference from 00z and it's not for the better. The good news is that as long as the changes are kind of big, they can happen in the other direction too. But we will want to see some improvement by early Friday I think....so like 3 more cycles. Yeah, I hope. But it;s just one thing after the other. Sometimes it's one or two things we are waiting on to clear up, but there are s/w's everywhere it seems. We'll wait and see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 At least the mtns of NC will get snow. I was starting to feel read bad for them. Anxiously awaiting Boone NC webcam images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: At least the mtns of NC will get snow. I was starting to feel read bad for them. Anxiously awaiting Boone NC webcam images. Not Boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: At least the mtns of NC will get snow. I was starting to feel read bad for them. Anxiously awaiting Boone NC webcam images. Don’t worry, the charts will verify epocity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 We will most likely be watching this from the sidelines but I tip my cap to those weenies trying to will this north. The new GFS is a raging torch at the end of it's run. Grinch is getting ready. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Suppression followed by a cutter. Get the toasters ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 We'll wait for the 12z EPS to see if we get some more members west of the mean and cut down on the spread east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I am on the bubble here in Raleigh-Durham but most likely more of a sleetfest in this neck of the woods. West of I-85 including GSO to CLT could get a substantial hit for this region down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 18 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Suppression followed by a cutter. Get the toasters ready. Pac jet is ramping up by the middle of next week. In a twisted way it's kinda cool seeing that height gradient push into the pacific nw when looping H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 26 minutes ago, eyewall said: I am on the bubble here in Raleigh-Durham but most likely more of a sleetfest in this neck of the woods. West of I-85 including GSO to CLT could get a substantial hit for this region down here. Moved back to NC? couldn’t take the BTV snowhole anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 46 minutes ago, Hazey said: We will most likely be watching this from the sidelines but I tip my cap to those weenies trying to will this north. The new GFS is a raging torch at the end of it's run. Grinch is getting ready. I mentioned something similar yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I doubt we have a raging torch, revamp of the pattern, yes. Torch, NO. Look out a little further and chances of storms increase. So to write off December as a whole is premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Greg said: I doubt we have a raging torch, revamp of the pattern, yes. Torch, NO. Look out a little further and chances of storms increase. So to write off December as a whole is premature. This. We can't even figure out what it's going to do 5-6 days from now with regard to this potential system/storm or whatever it turns into, for whoever it may be for??? There's going to be a moderation for sure, but I wouldn't be too worried about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Meanwhile, enjoy the stretch of relatively dry weather. I know I am in the minority but I kind of enjoy cold and dry, probably get some raking done later this afternoon. Agreed. Dry is a good thing for now. The water table is insanely high in my area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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