December Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Zero chance on this one

For SNE? You prob want to brush up on probabaility and uncertainty. 

Underdogs? Sure. But zero percent on a 6 day forecast shows unrealistic certainty. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The primary northern stream shortwave that phases on the euro doesn't come onshore near Juneau AK until 00z Friday. 

The kicker behind it doesn't come onshore until 12z Saturday in the PAC NW. 

The Arctic shortwave from the PV lobe that contributes to Quebec confluence is still over the central Arctic Ocean. It reaches Hudson Bay on Saturday...prob doesn't get decent sampling until it is near there since northern NW territories and the Canadian archipelago isn't exactly a poster child for a dense obs network...and satellite isn't going to be great there either with the extreme cold. 

Bottom line is that we have a lot of northern stream and Arctic jet shortwaves that will matter to this system that are more prone to large changes than usual due to their position. So don't be surprised to see large changes on some model guidance between now and Saturday. It doesn't mean the changes will always be good for us, but obviously we will want to see changes for a hit here. 

Good summary. We have a lot of time to sort this out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I'm emotionally overwhelmed.

Fyp

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The primary northern stream shortwave that phases on the euro doesn't come onshore near Juneau AK until 00z Friday. 

The kicker behind it doesn't come onshore until 12z Saturday in the PAC NW. 

The Arctic shortwave from the PV lobe that contributes to Quebec confluence is still over the central Arctic Ocean. It reaches Hudson Bay on Saturday...prob doesn't get decent sampling until it is near there since northern NW territories and the Canadian archipelago isn't exactly a poster child for a dense obs network...and satellite isn't going to be great there either with the extreme cold. 

Bottom line is that we have a lot of northern stream and Arctic jet shortwaves that will matter to this system that are more prone to large changes than usual due to their position. So don't be surprised to see large changes on some model guidance between now and Saturday. It doesn't mean the changes will always be good for us, but obviously we will want to see changes for a hit here. 

Fabulous summary....and very easy to understand.  Thanks!

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The primary northern stream shortwave that phases on the euro doesn't come onshore near Juneau AK until 00z Friday. 

The kicker behind it doesn't come onshore until 12z Saturday in the PAC NW. 

The Arctic shortwave from the PV lobe that contributes to Quebec confluence is still over the central Arctic Ocean. It reaches Hudson Bay on Saturday...prob doesn't get decent sampling until it is near there since northern NW territories and the Canadian archipelago isn't exactly a poster child for a dense obs network...and satellite isn't going to be great there either with the extreme cold. 

Bottom line is that we have a lot of northern stream and Arctic jet shortwaves that will matter to this system that are more prone to large changes than usual due to their position. So don't be surprised to see large changes on some model guidance between now and Saturday. It doesn't mean the changes will always be good for us, but obviously we will want to see changes for a hit here. 

Agreed ... I began emphasizing the assimilation vs physical sounding stuff like four or five days ago  -... That's not to toot horn, buuuut, too many posts don't appear to reflect those concepts are in the gears of the individual perceptions and mental processing before they make whatever post they are making. 

And so, it's not just me ... You, NCEP... Nick, Chris... Scott...    repeatedly over and over again becomes a valid mantra that this gunk is coming off the Pacific at shallow trajectories, such that all players really are not in the physical sounding (unfortunately.. ) until some three days lead.  I think people need their dystopian and/or drama drug and they channel the models for it.. I often wonder if the model animation movie is more important to many folks than even the event its self - ha. Be that as it may, ... in a situation like this, that "high" of opening the models and seeing a 7 isobar contoured hornet sting on E of the Del Marve with -10C of Logan ...doesn't get to happen for seven straight days of cycles...  So it's really quick similar in a lot of ways to perpetuating a withdraw syndrome. 

Anyway, ...I agree with your implicit suggestion that this may all come together ... late.  Boxing Day was a < 60 hour correction if I recall - not an analog in any stretch but just to show. I'm > 90% confident that the posting tenor in the 12 hours just before the come-back began, the nadir in mood in here was just ... fantastically depressing  

Or not... All this stuff could come into the soundings and it does nothing to modulate favorably...or even less - have seen that before. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Agreed ... I began emphasizing the assimilation vs physical sounding stuff like four or five days ago  -... That's not to toot horn, buuuut, too many posts don't appear to reflect those concepts are in the gears of the individual perceptions and mental processing before they make whatever post they are making. 

And so, it's not just me ... You, NCEP... Nick, Chris... Scott...    repeatedly over and over again becomes a valid mantra that this gunk is coming off the Pacific at shallow trajectories, such that all players really are not in the physical sounding (unfortunately.. ) only some three days lead.  I think people need their dystopian/drama drug and they channel the models for it.. I often wonder if the model animation movie is more important to many folks than even the event its self. 

Anyway, ...I agree with your implicit suggestion that this may all come together ... late.  Boxing Day was a < 60 hour correction if I recall - not an analog in any stretch but just to show. I'm > 90% confident that the posting tenor in the 12 hours just before the come-back began, the nadir in mood in here was just ... fantastically depressing  

Or not... All this stuff could come into the soundings and it does nothing to modulate favorably...or even less - have seen that before. 

 

Right. Just because these pieces are in a spot where large changes frequently happen, it doesn't mean the changes have to be large or that they have to favor a snowier scenario...hell, for all we know the changes will dampen the system out even more and the snow weenies in Virginia will have suppression depression. 

But...since we need some changes to get us a better hit, we will roll the dice on these and hope they turn out for the better. We do have some variables going for us...the steep angle at which the northern stream dives in will try and facilitate a phase/downstream ridging. We obviously need that. The PV starts to lift out rapidly to our northeast as well...so perhaps if that does so just a tick faster, we're in business.  

We have an eternity in model time in a setup that is more prone to model error than is typical...that's really the main point. 

[dryslot]

And i agree with everything just mentioned, When the sampling begins, You're probably going to see some larger changes on modeling in just a matter of a one run cycle, Then moving forward from there one way or the other.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

And i agree with everything just mentioned, When the sampling begins, You're probably going to see  you might begin to see some larger changes on modeling in just a matter of a one run cycle, Then moving forward from there one way or the other.

The strike-through still somewhat suggests a reliance to find some bigger solution when that happens, and that's not/should not be the impetus ...to do that.  

Also, if there is a substantive modulation that is destined to take place when these features of importance get physically sampled ... it may actually take a couple.. few runs actually, to fully mutate.  These features have dimension in free space ... and take time to pass through grid points ...  so it's not going to happen instantly.  Sometimes the changes can be seen in shorter amounts of time, sure... but a single cycle is unlikely. 

[CoastalWx]

I will also say that now that we are entering the period of relaxation (however you want to take it) we have a cutter, but the period after may be ok especially in the interior. It’s tough to say whether a low goes inland or just offshore, but it’s becoming clearer we can probably eliminate a torch for the northeast. It may be a torch over the border  which limits cold influx and cause AN here, but may be ok well inland. Looks like your typical December niño period with warm north, cooler south across the CONUS. Relative to normal. 

[Typhoon Tip]

43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Right. Just because these pieces are in a spot where large changes frequently happen, it doesn't mean the changes have to be large or that they have to favor a snowier scenario...hell, for all we know the changes will dampen the system out even more and the snow weenies in Virginia will have suppression depression. 

But...since we need some changes to get us a better hit, we will roll the dice on these and hope they turn out for the better. We do have some variables going for us...the steep angle at which the northern stream dives in will try and facilitate a phase/downstream ridging. We obviously need that. The PV starts to lift out rapidly to our northeast as well...so perhaps if that does so just a tick faster, we're in business.  

We have an eternity in model time in a setup that is more prone to model error than is typical...that's really the main point. 

Oh absolutely ... that's been part of the advises in recent days, too - not just the pump breaks and try to keep one's undy lumps from jumping out of their flies ... but, we've also been spending time elucidating what needs ...if perhaps "could" take place to make impact farther up the coast more likely. 

More N/stream earlier in the game would crucial in that (I think..) as you say, a steeper incline west would veer the deep layer over and off the EC ...such that whatever ultimately detonates there would lift up more.. .Plus, the feedback is that it's stronger -   

I also don't necessarily see the N/stream jet branch that is ESE through Ontario as a negative... pending it behaves of course. The flow in its self is really no different than the southwest arc of a "50/50 low" outlined by DT (also Kocin/Ucellinin) et al over the years... We just see it in the runs now as a L/W axis less a closed big maritime cold transporter - both serve the same sort of purpose. The key there (however) is that it needs to relent .. I've seen those do so like ...four hours before go time on coastals in the past, and then suddenly the shield surges in so it can wait to tape -

To your point(s) ... more N/stream perhaps a touch earlier and let's see if we can relay a bit more in situ mechanical strength over southern Cali

[Typhoon Tip]

Although subtle, there is a bit more total amplitude at 48 hours on this 12z run compared to the two prior cycles for that same time interval. 

Unknown whether that means much down stream... but, this 12z cycle is the entrance for that relay coming over southern Cali - the first in the series. 

[NorEastermass128]

Nice panhandle of TX blizzard likely. 

[CoastalWx]

A small shift to the better, but boy there is an unlimited supply of Scooter sh*t stains in Canada, waiting to screw this up.

[LurkerBoy]

The relaxation looks like a few days of 40s/50 then back to avg. also nobody has mentioned how we have like 10 days of BBN before it lol

[CoastalWx]

Canadian made a nice move at 12z. fwiw.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Better but complicated mess up north. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, LurkerBoy said:

The relaxation looks like a few days of 40s/50 then back to avg. also nobody has mentioned how we have like 10 days of BBN before it lol

Because it was always after 12/10, now after 12/12. I think your assumption of a few 40s and 50s is generous, esp where you are in the tropics. 

[dryslot]

A shift to the NNW on the 12z GGEM

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A small shift to the better, but boy there is an unlimited supply of Scooter sh*t stains in Canada, waiting to screw this up.

I was going to say. Epic scooter sh*t streak over QC/NB by 12z Monday on the GFS. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

A shift to the NNW on the 12z GGEM

This needs a lot of work up here. The GFS really needs to be handling those couple of s/w's wrong just north of New England or else the confluence just keeps getting reinforced.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I was going to say. Epic scooter sh*t streak over QC/NB by 12z Monday on the GFS. 

At least I wiped better and pushed it north from 00z and 6z, 

[LurkerBoy]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Because it was always after 12/10, now after 12/12. I think your assumption of a few 40s and 50s is generous, esp where you are in the tropics. 

Doesn't look to be more than a workweek. And the deviation from normal seems tame at this time. What information is telling you otherwise? (Asking not to challenge you, but to further my knowledge/intuition)

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This needs a lot of work up here. The GFS really needs to be handling those couple of s/w's wrong just north of New England or else the confluence just keeps getting reinforced.

The s/w down south was much stronger this run too, But 0 help from the northern stream, We really don't need a full phase either but is going to need at least some, If not forget it up here.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least I wiped better and pushed it north from 00z and 6z, 

See what you can do about getting it north past the Gaspe.

[ORH_wxman]

That 2md shortwave diving in at 108-120 hours up in Quebec is the real key to keeping this south. It is there on the GGEM too which eventually shoves the storm east as it reaches NJ...that shortwave is currently on the Siberian side of the Arctic Ocean. It is in the southern route of the northwest passage by 00z Saturday and still only at the southern shore of Hudson Bay by 00z Sunday. That is an important piece that probably won't have good sampling even by satellites for a few days. 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

See what you can do about getting it north past the Gaspe.

Might have to switch to Charmin to get the improvements you need

[HoarfrostHubb]

It's still going to be a couple/few days before models really have a decent grasp on the shortwaves, and even then it will be tough

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That 2md shortwave diving in at 108-120 hours up in Quebec is the real key to keeping this south. It is there on the GGEM too which eventually shoves the storm east as it reaches NJ...that shortwave is currently on the Siberian side of the Arctic Ocean. It is in the southern route of the northwest passage by 00z Saturday and still only at the southern shore of Hudson Bay by 00z Sunday. That is an important piece that probably won't have good sampling even by satellites for a few days. 

That is the one we were referring to and i commented to get further north, That is the one that's keeping this southern stream s/w further south and its mostly all driven by its strength to how far north it gets, It was a few tics slower and NW of QUE on the GGEM instead of above Northern Maine this run before it kick it ENE

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It's still going to be a couple/few days before models really have a decent grasp on the shortwaves, and even then it will be tough

 Meanwhile, enjoy the stretch of relatively dry weather.   I know I am in the minority but I kind of enjoy cold and dry, probably get some raking done later this afternoon.  

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Doesn't look to be more than a workweek. And the deviation from normal seems tame at this time. What information is telling you otherwise? (Asking not to challenge you, but to further my knowledge/intuition)

Well a cutter would easily be in the 50s down where you are..maybe near 60 for a day. After, it just depends on storm track. I agree with 40s and 50s, but I think it's more than a few days as you surmised, where you are.