December Discussion

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. And it’s close. Good spot to be at d7 unless some think they wanna get jacked already.

I would definitely fear being the jackpot right now....

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Did it improve relative to 00z?

Not really, Maybe even a tic or two east of 0z, But its all relevant anyways for now, But shows the potential is still there at the very least.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

I would definitely fear being the jackpot right now....

I like where we stand at this juncture. Small improvements at h5 continue. This has a chance. 

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I like where we stand at this juncture. Small improvements at h5 continue. This has a chance. 

I think that once you start to see some of these pieces of energy get sampled up north, That's when we will start to see more in the way of bigger steps better or worse in the direction this will head in, There really isn't much to say down south as it looks pretty solid there no matter, Its up here where it really matters, Just look to see if we get more amped members of the ensembles to come onboard, That will be a decent indicator where we are going too.

[mikem81]

Using the NAVGEM rule would yield a good result. 

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2018120412&fh=144

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Using the NAVGEM rule would yield a good result. 

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2018120412&fh=144

The general rule, is don't use it.

[weathafella]

15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You drop that bad larry sooner down the backside of our southern streamer then watch the post count rise in here as well as the laptops.

Well played!

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I like where we stand at this juncture. Small improvements at h5 continue. This has a chance. 

They did? Jeff said it looked slightly worse at the service...but doesn't matter, anyway.

[WinterWolf]

Jan '16 and Jan 1996...both were slated as MA specials quite late in the game, and then they marched north enough to give Good results and Great results respectively in SNE.   

 

Ofcourse no two set ups are exactly alike, but you can see where this compares to those previous situations....we wait and watch.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think that once you start to see some of these pieces of energy get sampled up north, That's when we will start to see more in the way of bigger steps better or worse in the direction this will head in, There really isn't much to say down south as it looks pretty solid there no matter, Its up here where it really matters, Just look to see if we get more amped members of the ensembles to come onboard, That will be a decent indicator where we are going too.

There are so many s'w's in the flow. It's like when one thing improves, another s/w flies in to muck around. The good news is that the amount of time we have can allow for some corrections. I think they'll be a limit not only because of what's going on with the PV....but also the Pacific jet is acting up and will become a kicker.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Jan '16 and Jan 1996...both were slated as MA specials quite late in the game, and then they marched north enough to give Good results and Great results respectively in SNE.   

 

Ofcourse no two set ups are exactly alike, but you can see where this compares to those previous situations....we wait and watch.

Jan '16 was good south of the pike...I had like in inch or two in Wilmington.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There are so many s'w's in the flow. It's like when one thing improves, another s/w flies in to muck around. The good news is that the amount of time we have can allow for some corrections. I think they'll be a limit not only because of what's going on with the PV....but also the Pacific jet is acting up and will become a kicker.

Agree.

[weathafella]

Regarding the if it was good we’d be all over it.  Bullshirt.  Many times last week it looked great in 11-15 but ensembles were crap so we kept our mouths shut.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

They did? Jeff said it looked slightly worse at the service...but doesn't matter, anyway.

I thought h5 was better and with some notcieable pv interaction improvements, but outcome was relatively the same. But splitting hairs at this point. my bad. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

I thought h5 was better and with some notcieable pv interaction improvements, but outcome was relatively the same. But splitting hairs at this point. my bad. 

NBD...I usually don't look at work, just go by pbp.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Yes you're in N. SNE so Jan 16 sucked there I agree.  But it was Excellent on the CT Shore where 16 plus inches was common place....and even well inland at my location we picked up 10 plus inches out of that system.  But once a lil North of Hartford lat it dropped off very fast to almost nothing 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes you're in N. SNE so Jan 16 sucked there I agree.  But it was Excellent on the CT Shore where 16 plus inches was common place....and even well inland at my location we picked up 10 plus inches out of that system.  But once a lil North of Hartford lat it dropped off very fast to almost nothing 

I actually got about 7 inches and it was stormy with the wind.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NBD...I usually don't look at work, just go by pbp.

What scooter said is correct. One thing improves  while another poops on it. I think the first 72/96hr on the run was improved which I tend to lean more to as a positive rather than what happens with the nstream at say 144/168.

[40/70 Benchmark]

EPS should be interesting..

[Greg]

Did anybody take a look at the Euro? Just asking.

[Hoth]

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes you're in N. SNE so Jan 16 sucked there I agree.  But it was Excellent on the CT Shore where 16 plus inches was common place....and even well inland at my location we picked up 10 plus inches out of that system.  But once a lil North of Hartford lat it dropped off very fast to almost nothing 

Lots of confluence with that one and consequently a big gradient. Ray had an inch, while I had 6 in Cambridge and South Boston was like 8-9" and the south coast was a foot plus.

[EastonSN+]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jan '16 was good south of the pike...I had like in inch or two in Wilmington.

Yup. 27 in 96 in Norwalk and 11.5 in 16 in Easton 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Hoth said:

Lots of confluence with that one and consequently a big gradient. Ray had an inch, while I had 6 in Cambridge and South Boston was like 8-9" and the south coast was a foot plus.

My current place in northern Methuen must have smoked cirrus.

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, Greg said:

Did anybody take a look at the Euro? Just asking.

I think so...sounds like it was slightly worse, but just noise.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup. 27 in 96 in Norwalk and 11.5 in 16 in Easton 

Jan '96 was great at my old spot in Wilmington...I had like 18", but my new spot only had like 7" of sand. I'd be pissed.

[CoastalWx]

I would say the one thing that does look better(esp EPS) is how the srn s/w looks at, say, hr 120 compared to hr 132 at 00z. We'll need that sharper to get the low into an initial further north position. I think Will said that yesterday as well. So,, keep rooting for that.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I would say the one thing that does look better(esp EPS) is how the srn s/w looks at, say, hr 120 compared to hr 132 at 00z. We'll need that sharper to get the low into an initial further north position. I think Will said that yesterday as well. So,, keep rooting for that.

Pretty big difference noted between 12z hr 150 and hr 162 on the 0z run to that fact

[CoastalWx]

Good bump NNW on the EPS. That srn s/w is much sharper.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Good bump NNW on the EPS. That srn s/w is much sharper.

The pope's sne rainer taking shape. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Good bump NNW on the EPS. That srn s/w is much sharper.

Not surprised.