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December Discussion


NorEastermass128
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3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Usually all it takes is for one good model run for many here to proclaim "cold and snow ahead" It's always the "bad" model runs that get tossed. 

Confirmation bias is a strong force.

OP runs really shouldn't even be looked at beyond D6-7 IMHO. Ensembles score so much better once out in that D9-10 and beyond range. When people look at OP runs out in that range, they are settling looking at a solution that is a lot worse than the ensembles. There's no point.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Confirmation bias is a strong force.

OP runs really shouldn't even be looked at beyond D6-7 IMHO. Ensembles score so much better once out in that D9-10 and beyond range. When people look at OP runs out in that range, they are settling looking at a solution that is a lot worse than the ensembles. There's no point.

All I wrote was that the GFS looked awful in the long term.  If I had written "the GFS looks ok in the long term" ...there wouldn't had been a single reply lol. 

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5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

All I wrote was that the GFS looked awful in the long term.  If I had written "the GFS looks ok in the long term" ...there wouldn't had been a single reply lol. 

I wasn;t disagreeing with you....that's why I made the note about confirmation bias...it's what causes people to comment on the OP GFS in the long range when they see what they want but not to make any comment when it shows something they don't want.

 

My point about the ensembles was that we'd probably avoid a lot of clutter if we just didn't look at OP runs beyond a certain timeframe. Or at least avoid taking them with any ounce of credibility.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I wasn;t disagreeing with you....that's why I made the note about confirmation bias...it's what causes people to comment on the OP GFS in the long range when they see what they want but not to make any comment when it shows something they don't want.

 

My point about the ensembles was that we'd probably avoid a lot of clutter if we just didn't look at OP runs beyond a certain timeframe. Or at least avoid taking them with any ounce of credibility.

Just let him go 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I wasn;t disagreeing with you....that's why I made the note about confirmation bias...it's what causes people to comment on the OP GFS in the long range when they see what they want but not to make any comment when it shows something they don't want.

 

My point about the ensembles was that we'd probably avoid a lot of clutter if we just didn't look at OP runs beyond a certain timeframe. Or at least avoid taking them with any ounce of credibility.

I understand and agree.

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12 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

All I wrote was that the GFS looked awful in the long term.  If I had written "the GFS looks ok in the long term" ...there wouldn't had been a single reply lol. 

Welcome to the weather forums dude, ha, I think that's how it's been since Day 1 back in the early 2000s.  

Bad news gets dissected to see if it can be proven wrong...good news means just roll along, throw a high-five, nothing to discuss here.

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Welcome to the weather forums dude, ha, I think that's how it's been since Day 1 back in the early 2000s.  

Bad news gets dissected to see if it can be proven wrong...good news means just roll along, throw a high-five, nothing to discuss here.

Keywords will always get responses on here, Be it negative or positive.

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Keywords will always get responses on here, Be it negative or positive.

The "negative" posts or perceived ones do get more replies but they also foster the most actual weather discussion.  They lead to more discussion about features we want to see change to get positive trends.  When stuff is all good it's less actual Met discussion.

Like this storm has work to do and there's plenty of good disco about what needs to happen.  If every model showed a hit, it would be more high-fiving than Met discussion.  It's not a bad thing, we learn more from the near misses and get better discussion IMO.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thank you for reeling it in. That was embarrassing 

As if your countless posts about window ac units...high dews...summer beginning in April....and your meltdowns aren't embarrassing????…oh gee I forgot your self imposed exiles from the forums because the weather wasn't delivering exactly what you desired. Something tells me you are already in a complete frenzy regarding the winter. 

BTW have you ever come up with one single post to prove that others were mentioning  a 1816 repeat for the summer of 17 or 18?? ….it was a made up fairy tale in your mind because you were depressed about not having a summer filled with high dews and heat. 

 

 

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Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

As if your countless posts about window ac units...high dews...summer beginning in April....and your meltdowns aren't embarrassing????…oh gee I forgot your self imposed exiles from the forums because the weather wasn't delivering exactly what you desired. Something tells me you are already in a complete frenzy regarding the winter. 

BTW have you ever come up with one single post to prove that others were mentioning  a 1816 repeat for the summer of 17 or 18?? ….it was a made up fairy tale in your mind because you were depressed about not having a summer filled with high dews and heat. 

 

 

I’d suggest you find another hobby. One that you can understand a little better, so as not to publicly humiliate yourself . It’s almost like you just got caught naked in the front picture window 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d suggest you find another hobby. One that you can understand a little better, so as not to publicly humiliate yourself . It’s almost like you just got caught naked in the front picture window 

Hmm I suggest you grow up and stop acting like a spoiled child when the weather doesn't deliver exactly what you want it to be. You constantly fret about the weather. I do not. You are just upset that things do not look so good in the long term. 

Once again, have you found a single post to prove you are correct about an 1816 repeat???

 

 

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