40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: DC to BOS has had some good ones in the past where we have sat shaking a snow globe to get the same affect up here. Yes, different story for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 33 minutes ago, dendrite said: idk...this could still go either way depending on how the northern stream plays out. That lead northern s/w that really dug out ahead of the southern one on the GFS yesterday morning was a lot weaker/north overnight. It's moving the strongest confluence north and the southern system is a little stronger and slowing down a bit. That's letting the trailing s/w catch up just in time to make it interesting. But we still need an earlier phase. CMC would be nice...it goes bonkers with the trailing northern piece. Still casually interested. This is a good summary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, different story for you. Most definitely, Not often when those to locales get blitzed that it works out further north, That's why the northern stream involvement or lack there of will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 35 minutes ago, dendrite said: idk...this could still go either way depending on how the northern stream plays out. That lead northern s/w that really dug out ahead of the southern one on the GFS yesterday morning was a lot weaker/north overnight. It's moving the strongest confluence north and the southern system is a little stronger and slowing down a bit. That's letting the trailing s/w catch up just in time to make it interesting. But we still need an earlier phase. CMC would be nice...it goes bonkers with the trailing northern piece. Still casually interested. I agree with all this, And all this does not get sorted out for a few more days at the very least, Going forward, Just pay attention to the northern stream and how it interacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll bet if you researched the topic thoroughly, you would be hard pressed to unearth a major winter storm that heavily impacted the mid atl and whiffed sne in a weak modoki el nino season. Plenty were modeled to, sure....Jan 2005 one very notable one....Jan 2015 was supposed to fish. Northern stream will rule this season. Ponder that one for a bit... That’s good to hear. I’m not sure how I would begin researching it other than the KU books Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Most definitely, Not often when those to locales get blitzed that it works out further north, That's why the northern stream involvement or lack there of will be key. It's still a LONG way out. I had forgotten how far out this system is until I just looked at some models. Judging by post frequency I started thinking this was 3-4 days out, looks like 6 days away from New England impacts? Thats an eternity in model land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll bet if you researched the topic thoroughly, you would be hard pressed to unearth a major winter storm that heavily impacted the mid atl and whiffed sne in a weak modoki el nino season. Plenty were modeled to, sure....Jan 2005 one very notable one....Jan 2015 was supposed to fish. Northern stream will rule this season. Ponder that one for a bit... As a plausible beginning metric ...what was going on with the ENSO state leading all the PD events of last century. I think there were several - if memory is too bad ... heh - that did a sharp N cut-off near Long Island of southern NH latitudes... where they hammered PHL.. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: It's still a LONG way out. I had forgotten how far out this system is until I just looked at some models. Judging by post frequency I started thinking this was 3-4 days out, looks like 6-7 days away from New England impacts? At one point it would have been, Its still a long ways out as it went from showing up around the 8th to pushed back to the 10-12th time frame so its delayed on modeling........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 And I should have said a Cape Scraper/SRI, SCT deal seems doable, but "up and in" might be tough depending on the northern stream. Hopefully Ray's analysis bears fruit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: At one point it would have been, Its still a long ways out as it went from showing up around the 8th to pushed back to the 10-12th time frame so its delayed on modeling........lol Yup. Delayed, hopefully not denied. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It's still a LONG way out. I had forgotten how far out this system is until I just looked at some models. Judging by post frequency I started thinking this was 3-4 days out, looks like 6-7 days away from New England impacts? Yea true, long ways to go. but As tend be well formed beneath us for days. Just a matter of getting the n stream involved now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Yup. Delayed, hopefully not denied. We watch, We wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: As a plausible beginning metric ...what was going on with the ENSO state leading all the PD events of last century. I think there were several - if memory is too bad ... heh - that did a sharp N cut-off near Long Island of southern NH latitudes... where they hammered PHL.. interesting. PD I was neutral ENSO. PD II was moderate modoki el nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: And I should have said a Cape Scraper/SRI, SCT deal seems doable, but "up and in" might be tough depending on the northern stream. Hopefully Ray's analysis bears fruit. I'm not saying it can't whiff....but merely contending that past history should give one pause before resigning to such a fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6z EPS bumped NW again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not saying it can't whiff....but merely contending that past history should give one pause before resigning to such a fate. Most of us know what the outcome will be without any help from any northern stream interaction of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: Most of us know what the outcome will be without any help from any northern stream interaction of some sort. Sure, but most of us also know that a dearth of northern stream involvement in a season of this ilk would be exceptionally rare. Again, could happen.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sure, but most of us no that dearth of northern stream involvement in a season of this ilk would be exceptionally rare. Again, could happen.... Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 6z EPS bumped NW again It's going to take 5 to 7 bumps, a couple of nudges and a push or two for this system to be interesting for me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: It's going to take 5 to 7 bumps, a couple of nudges and a push or two for this system to be interesting for me.... The pope may make you convert if he’s onto the trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 As for this system tomorrow impacting the fishes, the GFS has been overwhelmingly progressive with the system in the southern stream. I would beg to side on the more amped solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: As for this system tomorrow impacting the fishes, the GFS has been overwhelmingly progressive with the system in the southern stream. I would beg to side on the more amped solutions. Create your own thread to beg for that system because everyone else has moved on days ago. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 One of the Miller A storms that I looked at last night in the KU book was the February 6-7 1967 Storm. Not saying it will happen and of course the SST's are NOT that of February, but, the baroclinisic zone is closer off shore at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Greg said: One of the Miller A storms that I looked at last night in the KU book was the February 6-7 1967 Storm. Not saying it will happen and of course the SST's are NOT that of February, but, the baroclinisic zone is closer off shore at this time of year. ENSO cool neutral....fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: ENSO cool neutral....fyi Oh, I know that it wasn't a weak El Nino like it is now but when you actually look at both weak La Ninas and Ninos you can get similar set-ups in a slightly different pattern. Just a thought, nothing etched in stone of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Sizable changes from 00z on the GFS. Overall the PV lifts out and energy in the high plains digging in. But, Lobe of PV in Ontario may try to keep it south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 GFS 12z is coming in north through 92hrs. what a beautiful looking storm. This has a lot of potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 That may give it the boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: That may give it the boot. We boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 That thing was coming north though before that PV hooked southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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