USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Models are getting more aggressive at H5, closes off the trough at H5 on the latest 6z NAM, trends continue towards a much more amped trough and a longer duration of closed upper level low presence. This will bring snow to SE MA and CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I mean really though...'O Canada, we stand on guard for thee. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Not saying it's definitely coming or anything, but another common NWP miss is too much focus on the southern stream (and convective latent heating) while the northern stream is often just as strong an influence. Some of our satellite estimate techniques tend to break down for the northern stream too. WV gets "washed out" because sampling cooler temps in general across the north tricks the satellite into thinking the features may be higher in the atmosphere (shallower) than reality. Say it. It’s coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Say it. It’s coming 6z GFS remains within its bias, progressive big time, I don't know if I should right now, but maybe later while using short-range guidance, we can see that it has a severe progressive bias within the first 48 hours of the forecast, so it bodes well that we see that bias occur in a 6 day forecast. Right now I would lean amped up a bit, but how much and how does that affect the forecast, i wouldn't know for sure. Wednesday storm is coming mightily close to impacts on Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro is perilously close to nuking us....there is a little northern lobe getting involved at the last moment on this run. Watch that moving forward....still think this may end up more n stream involvement. From your post to God's ears. The GEM is a thing of beauty. Bring it. In the meantime, we an at least enjoy our return to wintery temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: From your post to God's ears. The GEM is a thing of beauty. Bring it. In the meantime, we an at least enjoy our return to wintery temps. Nah, you already folded...can’t win the pot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nah, you already folded...can’t win the pot. He has Pot1 and Pot2 to pick from 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 That’s a missle on the eura. Tick tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: He has Pot1 and Pot2 to pick from It's a little bit of pot-luck, I suppose. GYX doesn't even drop a hint of anything possible at the end of the period (of course, it's the timing would be later for up here in the off-chance anything should happen). I might be seeing a couple places to replace Pit1 in ORH over the weekend. Maybe the evolution of this system will help me scope out a weenie spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 You don't want the EURO solution to verify, while the northern stream is more involved, there is no direct phase going on, we want a phase near 38N so the conveyor belt hits this area, not Maine. Plus I think the GFS is too progressive. I believe the Wednesday night storm will materialize to some degree, how much we won't know until the RAP and HRRR are in their ranges. The 39 hour RAP shows it much closer to an impact on Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: It's a little bit of pot-luck, I suppose. GYX doesn't even drop a hint of anything possible at the end of the period (of course, it's the timing would be later for up here in the off-chance anything should happen). I might be seeing a couple places to replace Pit1 in ORH over the weekend. Maybe the evolution of this system will help me scope out a weenie spot. Help a weenie out, where are pit 1 and pit 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, #NoPoles said: Help a weenie out, where are pit 1 and pit 2? Pit1 is in Shelburne, MA. Pit2 is in Bath, ME. We're selling the place in Shelburne and relocating into central Mass. In the meantime, I'm really happy to have dropped into the 20's. The walking paths at the dog park were a mud disaster yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 In a lot of ways, the midweek coastal setup is a lot like the weekend storm setup, in these terms, there are arctic and Pacific jet interactions that will determine the storm's fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: In a lot of ways, the midweek coastal setup is a lot like the weekend storm setup, in these terms, there are arctic and Pacific jet interactions that will determine the storm's fate. You are treating the mid week non event like it’s an event. Let it go. We’re probably not getting a triple phaser fwiw this week or next or maybe anytime this winter. They are exceedingly rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: You are treating the mid week non event like it’s an event. Let it go. We’re probably not getting a triple phaser fwiw this week or next or maybe anytime this winter. They are exceedingly rare. I was asking not telling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Fv3 Gfs with a pretty big jump north at 6z hmmm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: In a lot of ways, the midweek coastal setup is a lot like the weekend storm setup, in these terms, there are arctic and Pacific jet interactions that will determine the storm's fate. This doesn’t seem like asking. But thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Canadian seems more aggressive with heights over Greenland, squeezing that northern stream like a toothpaste tube. But, has Canadian ever scored a coup a week out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 27 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: You don't want the EURO solution to verify, while the northern stream is more involved, there is no direct phase going on, we want a phase near 38N so the conveyor belt hits this area, not Maine. Plus I think the GFS is too progressive. I believe the Wednesday night storm will materialize to some degree, how much we won't know until the RAP and HRRR are in their ranges. The 39 hour RAP shows it much closer to an impact on Cape Cod. Like hell we do. I'm here to steal snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: From your post to God's ears. The GEM is a thing of beauty. Bring it. In the meantime, we an at least enjoy our return to wintery temps. Doesn't have to mean all out blizzard/HECS, but we should see this come north some. I think the real big fish for us will be later this season... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 24 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I was asking not telling? Well, people have answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Debbies will be shocked this comes north inside d5. Yet, we see it over and over again. Some just never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Doesn't have to mean all out blizzard/HECS, but we should see this come north some. I think the real big fish for us will be later this season... I'm wondering if you're concerned at all about about the winds at 500mb spoiling things. The flow looks pretty compressed, which seems less than ideal for northern stream phasing. I think Tippy mentioned something about it the other day. Makes me wonder if this remains more southern stream dominant. At any rate, certainly worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Still think this is warm/wet outcome for most, on the 9th/10th. VT and ME in best spots for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Oz CMC is only pc of guidance without a -NAO look to it off the east coast, and therefore is beginning to make the most sense imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 18 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Oz CMC is only pc of guidance without a -NAO look to it off the east coast, and therefore is beginning to make the most sense imo. Are you speaking ex cathedra? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Ocean Effect Cloud Machine has ramped up, NWS has 20% slight chance of snow showers in the forecast from tonight through tomorrow night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 If the northern stream gets involved it will come, And it will come with a loaded gun, If it remains just a southern stream s/w, Then congrats DT and the Mid Atlantic crowd and maybe some up here gets some scraps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 This has zero chance of cutting inland lol. Like absolutely zero. Maybe less than zero., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Are you speaking ex cathedra? What’s your forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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