December Discussion

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I don't know if I'd be saying that at this lead time...GFS is notoriously bad with set ups like this, and it's a very complicated set up with many SW's all over the place in the flow...models are going to struggle for a while on this...it's far from figured out.

I was away all weekend and haven't paid much attention since Friday morning, but after a quick look...didn't see anything too bullish ATT.

[Greg]

As I stated in an earlier post, December looked coldish with storms (Miller A's) to track but wether they hit us or not is a different story.  Need that northern stream to dig a little deeper and a weak high to run out ahead of the SW down in the southern Mid-Atlantic. Then a further northern trajectory will occur for the SW.

[TJW014]

Need to hope that storm 2 that redevelops of the Florida/Georgia Atlantic Shore, goes right up the coast rather than getting kicked out-to-sea

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It just phases that one a little late and keeps it offshore, Way to early to get invested in any of these scenarios right now.

Pretty much. I'm just keeping a casual interest. Gonna need to improve that nrn stream timing to get a phase to bring it up here. Even then the airmass may be iffy by then. Probably just cold enough to snow for the interior. We'll see...needs work.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

17 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Suppression depression baby on the 12z GFS.  Climo temps and sun and then the AN temps surge in.  

If you like snow, may need to close the shades until after 12/24.

We just need active pattern to return

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

Pretty much. I'm just keeping a casual interest. Gonna need to improve that nrn stream timing to get a phase to bring it up here. Even then the airmass may be iffy by then. Probably just cold enough to snow for the interior. We'll see...needs work.

I just take a peek at ea run to see where were at, Definitely needs more work, Just seems were getting pushed out to around the 12th now instead of the 10th, A lot of moving parts in the flow and the models will struggle before it gets sorted out one way or the other, 12z GGEM's focus was on the first s/w around the 10th and got it as far north as the delmarva before heading NE from there and scraped the south coast of SNE, Will just continue to watch from afar.

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I just take a peek at ea run to see where were at, Definitely needs more work, Just seems were getting pushed out to around the 12th now instead of the 10th, A lot of moving parts in the flow and the models will struggle before it gets sorted out one way or the other, 12z GGEM's focus was on the first s/w around the 10th and got it as far north as the delmarva before heading NE from there and scraped the south coast of SNE, Will just continue to watch from afar.

It's hard to keep track of all of the s/w's...I'd have to look more closely to see if it's trying to speed up the trailing one on the GFS or slowing down the lead one of the GFS. I'm not going to overanalyze something like that 7d out though when the models are still ironing them out anyway. The threat is still there, but needs work...all you really need to know right now. If someone starts stressing over this storm today they need to immediately get to the fridge and find the spiked egg nog.

[ORH_wxman]

It's really not even worth looking at OP runs right now. 

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It's really not even worth looking at OP runs right now. 

How are the GEFS and EPS?  More bullish than OPs for this D7-8 threat?

(I know D7-8 is so far out, but it's the only interesting thing to track RN)

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

How are the GEFS and EPS?  More bullish than OPs for this D7-8 threat?

(I know D7-8 is so far out, but it's the only interesting thing to track RN)

GEFS look like a whiff to me. EPS last night were a lot healthier. They showed a lot of hits mixed in with the whiffs. 

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS look like a whiff to me. EPS last night were a lot healthier. They showed a lot of hits mixed in with the whiffs. 

Thanks...warrants keeping an eye on it.  

 

[dryslot]

No matter the case, Going to need some help from the northern stream for the northeast i believe anyways, Mid Atlantic can probably pull something off with the southern s/w's, But even there it depends on what lobe comes into play, Really need to see one of the two s/w in the northern stream dive further south but won't help if the southern wave runs out ahead of it other then act like a kicker, Lot of timing issues to be worked out, About all you can say for now.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's really not even worth looking at OP runs right now. 

But you took a quick peak, didn’t you?

[dryslot]

You wouldn't be doing your due diligence if you didn't look, Doesn't mean to run with what or what not you see though.............lol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You wouldn't be doing your due diligence if you didn't look, Doesn't mean to run with what or what not you see though.............lol

Kinda like women?

[Typhoon Tip]

The correct handling of the Pacific general circulation noise is crucial to the December 9 thru 12 range over eastern middle latitudes of N/A.. 

Right now there is a quasi closed important circulation being analyzed in the mid and upper levels situated ~ 120 to 130 W by ~ 35 N ... slated to cleave open and transform into an open southern wave. This feature(s) then boots through the lower western states and ends up 'squeezing' through the TV. 

The amount of squeezing is important. The flow is relatively compressed back east over the TV/ lower OV and MA already. It is not abundantly clear whether the wave can maintain more cohesive identity as it encroaches over these regions. 

the moving parts that determine that destiny - and I welcome other observations ... - are: 

1) the feature near 125 W/35 N, itself. If that is stronger, it can offset the background negative wave interference as described over TV/OV/MA ... how much/how little having distinct feed-backs on any cyclogen position/intensity etc.. 

2) the entire circulation medium west of said feature closer to the date-line and beyond...  WPO-EPO arc it you will; that region is sending subsequent full latitude wave spaces through the HA longitudes (which ...ultimately starts the booing process for 125 W')... If too aggressive, that has a transitive effect on 125 W ability to conserve it's own mechanical power as it comes E. because more amplitude doing the booting means that the wave lengths are also negatively interfering from the W as well... That would cause the 125 W to attenuate that much more.  This type of attenuation is sort of "invisible" for lack of better word, but is has to do with wave mechanics in a fluid medium - when one superimposes over the other, you may not 'see' the offset or reinforce. 

...from what I can see... the 00z operational Euro was the more conserved with the local mechanical layout of 125 W's vestiges as they come east.  The GFS and it's Parallel version were less in that regard...   However, perhaps owing more to #2 above, there have been runs in the last 12 cycles that showed more western N/A ridge popping polarward on the heels of 125 W's ejection E... as Pac influences may instruct/correct that direction, which consequentially gives/gave more positive feed back ..resulting more prodigious cyclogen/coverage ... Cannot rule that out. The corrections - if so - could be borne of both assimilation idiosyncrasies and/or just emergent. 

So I'd put the 'threat' (for lack of better word) greater than negligible for Dec 9-12 at this time, but that we'll abruptly enter a higher confidence time Wednesday morning.    

[Greg]

Boy, I sure need a hobby.  Something like weather.  Oh, wait!

[Damage In Tolland]

Has the Pope been seen recently?

[512high]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Has the Pope been seen recently?

Isotherm have any input? I think he is on NY site? Sorry cant remember

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, 512high said:

Isotherm have any input? I think he is on NY site? Sorry cant remember

Sensible weather wise -- no changes from my initial post on Nov. 23 which postulated the retraction/reset period in Dec 10th-16th, and thereupon, rearrangement of features with a rapidly improving hemispheric regime shortly after the mid month point +/- three days. I maintain that notion. The week period of December 12th-18th will likely feature warmer than normal temperatures; however, heights should neutralize in the East by the 17th-18th already, with normalizing temperatures. The retrogression of the GOAK trough will be occurring concomitantly in the December 14th-18th period, and as we approach the 20th, all disparate domains will be increasing in favorability (e.g., PNA, NAM, NAO), such that the final third of December is interesting winter weather wise.

 

The 9th period remains a distinct threat as well, as originally noted on the 23rd to monitor the 7th-11th period.

 

As an aside, a displacement event favors North America (compared to Europe) for "winter" weather, and even if the SPV is displaced away from the continent, that does not implicate "all the cold air" will be taken with it. Quite the contrary, actually, as the geopotential height structure would be conducive for tropospheric, high-latitude blocking.

[WxBlue]

29 minutes ago, Greg said:

Boy, I sure need a hobby.  Something like weather.  Oh, wait!

It's during quiet times like now that I appreciate my photography hobby that much more.

[NorEastermass128]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sensible weather wise -- no changes from my initial post on Nov. 23 which postulated the retraction/reset period in Dec 10th-16th, and thereupon, rearrangement of features with a rapidly improving hemispheric regime shortly after the mid month point +/- three days. I maintain that notion. The week period of December 12th-18th will likely feature warmer than normal temperatures; however, heights should neutralize in the East by the 17th-18th already, with normalizing temperatures. The retrogression of the GOAK trough will be occurring concomitantly in the December 14th-18th period, and as we approach the 20th, all disparate domains will be increasing in favorability (e.g., PNA, NAM, NAO), such that the final third of December is interesting winter weather wise.

 

The 9th period remains a distinct threat as well, as originally noted on the 23rd to monitor the 7th-11th period.

 

As an aside, a displacement event favors North America (compared to Europe) for "winter" weather, and even if the SPV is displaced away from the continent, that does not implicate "all the cold air" will be taken with it. Quite the contrary, actually, as the geopotential height structure would be conducive for tropospheric, high-latitude blocking.

Is Isotherm better than Raindance from New Mexico?

[jbenedet]

49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Has the Pope been seen recently?

What’s up?

[Toekneeweather]

How’s the euro look any northward movement?

[Hazey]

4 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said:

How’s the euro look any northward movement?

Looks to have made a move toward the GFS. Appears to be a whiff on the 12z run or at the very least, not as good a run as 0z

[Hoth]

9 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said:

How’s the euro look any northward movement?

Congrats DT.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sensible weather wise -- no changes from my initial post on Nov. 23 which postulated the retraction/reset period in Dec 10th-16th, and thereupon, rearrangement of features with a rapidly improving hemispheric regime shortly after the mid month point +/- three days. I maintain that notion. The week period of December 12th-18th will likely feature warmer than normal temperatures; however, heights should neutralize in the East by the 17th-18th already, with normalizing temperatures. The retrogression of the GOAK trough will be occurring concomitantly in the December 14th-18th period, and as we approach the 20th, all disparate domains will be increasing in favorability (e.g., PNA, NAM, NAO), such that the final third of December is interesting winter weather wise.

 

The 9th period remains a distinct threat as well, as originally noted on the 23rd to monitor the 7th-11th period.

 

As an aside, a displacement event favors North America (compared to Europe) for "winter" weather, and even if the SPV is displaced away from the continent, that does not implicate "all the cold air" will be taken with it. Quite the contrary, actually, as the geopotential height structure would be conducive for tropospheric, high-latitude blocking.

Nice post DIT. I knew you had it in ya.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Congrats DT.

It’s coming north, you can see this has Jan16 written all over it. It may not be enough for us but congrats DT never materializes. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nice post DIT. I knew you had it in ya.

You think he wrote all that?  

[CoastalWx]

That flow makes it awfully tough for this not to be a SE or MA special. It's just way to complicated and fast over the nrn tier. It's still early, but you don't need a doctorate degree in atmospheric science. A mere night at the Holiday Inn Express will do.