OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Where do people get the ECMWF mjo plots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Where do people get the ECMWF mjo plots? Here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Where do people get the ECMWF mjo plots? You can find it here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 You know, this isn't too far from something better for Wednesday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: You know, this isn't too far from something better for Wednesday: Yeah a little too far for us. Maybe James can get a flurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 hour ago, leo2000 said: Here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Any comfort from the 18z GFS is that it's still a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 LR looking better! Looks like a few AN days then a return to normal. I’m cool with that. That said I don’t know how to read telleconnectors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 18z GFS is el garbage for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: 18z GFS is el garbage for next weekend. Don't look at the results as much as the H5 setup, the pattern is favorable for a digging arctic jet, GFS is about 6-12 hours off on timing right now. That means it will take a few little corrections to get us to where we want to be. Plus, the Thursday front actually tries to develop something south of Long Island and we could get some enhanced snowfall on the coast as winds try to turn northeast. We need to watch the whole week period after Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Don't look at the results as much as the H5 setup, the pattern is favorable for a digging arctic jet, GFS is about 6-12 hours off on timing right now. That means it will take a few little corrections to get us to where we want to be. Plus, the Thursday front actually tries to develop something south of Long Island and we could get some enhanced snowfall on the coast as winds try to turn northeast. We need to watch the whole week period after Tuesday. Yeah. Right now it’s too little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Euro looked good at 120 hrs then 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 hour ago, LurkerBoy said: LR looking better! Looks like a few AN days then a return to normal. I’m cool with that. That said I don’t know how to read telleconnectors Thank god we can minimize the nice weather since the storm whiffs... phew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro looked good at 120 hrs then that is some scary s***!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said: 18z GFS is el garbage for next weekend. Para is further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Para is further north GFS was just sloppy at H5. Get some better digging and it will come NW. The confluence over NE heads out in time to allow this to come NW. Sloppy or missed phase and it’s OTS though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I just took a look at the GFS model. I'll tell ya, some of these storms that are suppressed right now are not so suppressed being 9-11 days out. Usually for our area storms that look suppressed in the medium range tend to correct themselves further northwest as you get closer. So this isn't all that bad considering some thought we would have a giant southeast ridge giving most of us 45-55F weather for almost the rest of the month. At least we have a pattern that looks cold enough for snow and storms to track. Hang in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 D10 EPS looked terrible....how does 11-15 look? Zach’s pop would like to know. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: D10 EPS looked terrible....how does 11-15 look? Zach’s pop would like to know. Turrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 42 minutes ago, dendrite said: D10 EPS looked terrible....how does 11-15 look? Zach’s pop would like to know. They look like your yard after you fed your chickens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 More power to those near the coast but I'm feeling whiffs for the deep interior. Kind of waiting for a kicker low to show itself wrt to next weekend. If we whiff, we dry and I'm ok with that for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 GEFS made another big step in the longer range....eps made a smaller step but the direction is ok. 12/21-31 could rock. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: GEFS made another big step in the longer range....eps made a smaller step but the direction is ok. 12/21-31 could rock. I love your thoughts, Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 26 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said: They look like your yard after you fed your chickens. Flooded? But that's before I feed my chickens too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 34 minutes ago, dendrite said: Flooded? But that's before I feed my chickens too. Flooded and fed chickens=septic tank? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Flooded and fed chickens=septic tank? heh...I actually clean their poo daily. They clean. Eek and Gene can vouche for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Cold and dry have not had much interest in this period zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz all clear thru weekend says Barry B 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: GEFS made another big step in the longer range....eps made a smaller step but the direction is ok. 12/21-31 could rock. Which would be exactly when it would be most appreciated. As I said earlier, I will sacrifice some early Dec snow for the possibility of an actual stretch of dry weather. We are overdue for a dry spell. Cold and dry will be good for the firewood! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 26 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Cold and dry have not had much interest in this period zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz all clear thru weekend says Barry B The weekend was always going to be clear, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 hours ago, Greg said: I just took a look at the GFS model. I'll tell ya, some of these storms that are suppressed right now are not so suppressed being 9-11 days out. Usually for our area storms that look suppressed in the medium range tend to correct themselves further northwest as you get closer. So this isn't all that bad considering some thought we would have a giant southeast ridge giving most of us 45-55F weather for almost the rest of the month. At least we have a pattern that looks cold enough for snow and storms to track. Hang in there That can be true for southern stream waves that have a lot of convection. Modeling (and GFS in particular) can have a progressive bias, and the latent heat release and resulting ridge building ahead of stronger systems can be underforecast by NWP. There is a physical explanation for the NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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