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December Discussion


NorEastermass128
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Just now, weathafella said:

Edit-984 just outside.  Good trends.

We need an injection of cold air in the storm as it reaches the coast, that will preclude any ability for warming at the surface at the coastline.  GFS had a polar shortwave on the backside of the trough approaching the Great Lakes but actually phases too late.  The best chance for snow on Cape Cod this week, is probably from a coastal storm that develops as the arctic front confronts the Gulf stream south of ACK.

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Looking at this 12z operational GFS depiction for hour 144 and comparing the overall structure to the same time interval on the previous two cycles ... and tracing the events backward in time to their source/origin ... it's pretty clear there are substantial uncertainties as to what is ultimately going to get relayed off the Pacific ocean through the West.

You guys are right that the ridge on the backside of the wave(s) pops rigorously (more so) than the 06z, but again,...that's the entire sort of 'interstitial' relationship between about 150 or 160 W through 120 W part of the PNA's domain/handling, controlling "weather" that happens (haha).  Kidding aside, those differences ...both wrt to that and the wave mechanical power sampling, are obviously going to be key as to what sets up in the MV-MA and up the Coast later on next weekend. 

 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, at this point I just want to see that we're still in the game. The signal for an event is there.

I think we need to hope for a decent low and a slower trend to get a phase and journey up the coast. 

I like where we sit but like you said...long way to go. 

I don't need a perfect solution this far out, that cannot be expected, but it is definitely the right step.  Watch that shortwave explode as it impacts the backside of the long wave eastern US trough, once in nears our sub-tropical shortwave, the wave explodes over the Great Lakes, this phase is about 12-18 hours too late for us, and needs to speed up.  This is more likely to happen in a fast flow anchored by the -AO polar vortex over Northern Hudson Bay.  We need the phase earlier and further east so that it brings in the coldest airmass possible into the storm center.  With this air mass over the Gulf Stream, static instability will light the storm on fire, and allow the pressure to drop like a rock and speed up the moisture over cold dome process.  This could produce QPF amounts over 2" 

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...Seeing the subsequent time intervals/handling therefrom...  yeah, that's a subsumer into the Maritimes, a consequence of the N-stream being (perhaps) subtly differently handled for it's own headaches of spacial temporalities.  

"If If If" we are in the ball-park on this particular run (  :yikes: )  ...then enters interest as to whether that N-stream interaction is correct.  It's going to be a preventative or supportive... It can suppress, or..it can phase; particularly on the latter, if the backside ridge pops that much more, it will effectively "grab" any wayward polar/arctic mechanics dangling around the Canadian shield and send it south for merry go around of antics... 

But, that's all speculative, still in the envelope of plausibility.

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah the gfs shows this pretty well. Kind of meh by the time it gets here. Doesn’t mean it can’t be a good storm, but that look would be a whopper down south 

Brett, we need the northern stream (polar jet) to phase in about six to twelve hours faster for a full on snowstorm.

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27 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

We need an injection of cold air in the storm as it reaches the coast, that will preclude any ability for warming at the surface at the coastline.  GFS had a polar shortwave on the backside of the trough approaching the Great Lakes but actually phases too late.  The best chance for snow on Cape Cod this week, is probably from a coastal storm that develops as the arctic front confronts the Gulf stream south of ACK.

People care outside of cape cod too.

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9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Brett, we need the northern stream (polar jet) to phase in about six to twelve hours faster for a full on snowstorm.

An amped up bomb probably gives you a nice rainstorm. I think you should be cheering on just enough suppression and then get a deformation band from the southern stream storm over your head.

Anyway, the GFS has been consistent with having that northern stream s/w run out ahead of the southern system and basically plays the turd in the punchbowl preventing a phase and the southern stream from being able to amplify on its own. Way too early to be worrying about all that though as all of the models will be trying to figure out these shortwaves in the flow over the coming days.

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