Cold Miser Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pope John just cancelled December based on really good teleconnections Time to start a January thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Popes post was solid who’s fretting ? Lol Gonna be a tuff week verbatim that gfs storm track is very similar to what we saw in Novie. Congrats CNE/NNE . A bit further south into CNE thru MHT corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Popes post was solid who’s fretting ? Lol Gonna be a tuff week You over scheduled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: You over scheduled? Lol I’m juggling bro good thing for airplane mode on cell phone and occasional cialis (for biggins) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 LR f*cked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 4 hours ago, Zach’s Pop said: Only people who hump the eps or like trolling snow weenies thought the warm up was a torch and long lasting It’s coming. Embrace it and call me your daddy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 We have a rising PNA and falling NAO during the potential storm time frame. Isnt that exactly what you want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2 hours ago, dendrite said: The end of the latest GEFS were pretty warm and flooding the cold out of Canada and bringing lower heights over AK toward d16. Looks like a NW territory chinook. Gotta just let it play out a bit more. At least we can snow this time of year even with a meh pattern overall. It's just not overly cold. Shh....it’s muted. In all seriousness it’s not a super torch pattern, it a milder one. For some reason a few can’t accept it. It might get warm in the beginning of that trough throws a Sonoran Tip release. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: We have a rising PNA and falling NAO during the potential storm time frame. Isnt that exactly what you want? For 9 or whatever days out, it’s a decent look. We all know a small nuances can screw up a decent look, but I’m not sure what people expect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: For 9 or whatever days out, it’s a decent look. We all know a small nuances can screw up a decent look, but I’m not sure what people expect? Yes of course. Its early December and it's so far out so the chances are against it. But a reasonable threat I think for the time frame its at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Yes of course. Its early December and it's so far out so the chances are against it. But a reasonable threat I think for the time frame its at. Yep. And you really can't ask for much more at this point. From a pattern perspective it has good potential. The emotional snow weenie obviously wants assurances that it won't end up a coastal hugger or inland runner or a whiff, but they aren't going to get it and they should know that if theyve spent more than one winter following models or even this forum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Euro is very cold next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 And then torches the whole country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I think our window for a storm is 12/8-11. 12/13-20 and probably beyond looks toasty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep. And you really can't ask for much more at this point. From a pattern perspective it has good potential. The emotional snow weenie obviously wants assurances that it won't end up a coastal hugger or inland runner or a whiff, but they aren't going to get it and they should know that if theyve spent more than one winter following models or even this forum. I mean -NAO and -EPO and a + Pna next weekend . If that isn’t positive for a big coastal .. I’m not sure what is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think our window for a storm is 12/8-11. 12/13-20 and probably beyond looks toasty. I think this year how it just wants to be cold /BN. We need to ride Tippys coattails on no torch or big mild up. His sniffer has been good this fall/ early cold season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 So the pope is on dope ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I hear the El Nino has turn into a basin wide event. Even HM on Twitter is confirming that now from a Modoki El Nino. Vogt WeatherWatcher @VWeatherWatcher 1h1 hour ago More Replying to @antmasiello Correct me if I am wrong, but I do not think the meteorological community (notably, private mets) was expecting a canonical El Nino to develop -- a lot were banking on a Modoki... I wonder how this will impact winter forecasts, or if the canonical orientation is temporary. 2 replies0 retweets0 likes Reply 2 Retweet Like Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 1h1 hour ago More I just meant in terms of N. American temperature anomalies /+NPO. 1 reply0 retweets4 likes Reply 1 Retweet Like 4 Vogt WeatherWatcher @VWeatherWatcher 1h1 hour ago More Gotchya. Still though, this SST setup doesn't look like a Modoki El Nino to me. 1 reply0 retweets1 like Reply 1 Retweet Like 1 Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 1h1 hour ago More Its development was consistent with that of the PMM / Modoki-esque warm pool EOFs back in the warm season. But yes, since then, it has become a basin-wide event. Its development was similar to other PMM events like 2014. 1 reply0 retweets2 likes Reply 1 Retweet Like 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s coming. Embrace it and call me your daddy. All you embrace are the eps. It’s a 5 day period of mild weather. Bid deal. But for a week you did a great job of doing what you do well. troll the snow weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said: All you embrace are the eps. It’s a 5 day period of mild weather. Bid deal. But for a week you did a great job of doing what you do well. troll the snow weenies It's not a prolonged warmup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: It's not a prolonged warmup I keep seeing people say this, but what is this based on? It could easily be a pretty mild 10-14 days. It could also only be 4-6 days. I just don't see this overwhelming evidence yet that says "it's definitely only going to be a few days". I think we need to pump the brakes a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said: All you embrace are the eps. It’s a 5 day period of mild weather. Bid deal. But for a week you did a great job of doing what you do well. troll the snow weenies You gonna call him your daddy if he’s right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I keep seeing people say this, but what is this based on? It could easily be a pretty mild 10-14 days. It could also only be 4-6 days. I just don't see this overwhelming evidence yet that says "it's definitely only going to be a few days". I think we need to pump the brakes a little. The mixed signals is confusing for laymen! Sorry on my behalf and the rest of the weens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, LurkerBoy said: The mixed signals is confusing for laymen! Sorry on my behalf and the rest of the weens. EPS is inside of d10. It’s coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 38 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: So the pope is on dope ? He and Tippy were in agreement on the teleconnections Tip just thinks it may not be as torchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 How bad is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just looping the pv on the ensembles shows it scooting away. My experience suggests that once this is flushed out, we don’t reorient overnight. Maybe it won’t be a full on torch but it’s a significant pattern change that looks to me to probably last till New Years if we’re lucky and longer if we’re not. We could get events as we did in big relaxation periods in other nino winters such as 2004-05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: EPS is inside of d10. It’s coming. I think the best way to convey the message is that we're are definitely going to be warmer than the predominantly cold pattern we've been in the past 3-4 weeks...but there are subtleties not yet known that could make it more short lived and/or muted than otherwise. If we get more of a GOA trough with a little bit of downstream ridging then we could flirt with colder air from time to time. It would be nice if we knew that information already but we don't. But the anomalies overall will easily skew milder than normal from about Dec 11-12 through at least the 17-18th I think. We'll see if that's all we get. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 When the pope speaks, we lean the other way. He’s had a subpar start to the holy season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: When the pope speaks, we lean the other way. He’s had a subpar start to the holy season. He loves to take the opposite stance of concensus. Cold lean warm and vice versa. Maybe he’ll be correct about a torch Dec and screamer. We’ll wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now