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December Discussion


NorEastermass128
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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

There was a good storm in early March 1978 that broke the 4 week drought of storms. Brought about 8-12" to BOS and ORH. 

Interesting... 

I was just old enough to remember (as I loosely date myself) that era.  Southern lower Michigan, Kalamazoo, in the weeks post the hyper bomb that went up west of the Appalachians ( I've extolled upon that event amply in the past...) that brought the horrific wind and snow and historic surface barometric pressure depths ... nothing happened the rest of the winter in the Great Lakes.

Harvey Leonard did a presentation up at UML around 2003, discussing the dearth post that one ...and the latter February all-timer here off Cape Cod included. The consensus of the auditorium was coherent as there were a lot of uh-huh's and mm-hm's and whispered that's-right, radiating off the throng as he described 're-charging' synoptic phenomenon.

What he/we/those with experience know to be true ...is really that big huge events tend to re-align the wave structure over our side of the Hemisphere and beyond; which probably more precisely to cause, it is the atmosphere in the process of reshuffling into a new paradigm that caused the storm in the first place.  Bravo to Heather Archembault for taking what was intuitively known and/or suspected, and honing it's veracity via statistical inference/science.  It may not be entirely obvious which indices were in flux when either bomb took place... but it is also fascinating that the Cleveland Super Bomb and the February Blizzard, were only some two weeks apart, and either could have been majestically keyed into a global event in their own rite.  I have fragmented internal monologue in the past ...that there was just so much hemispheric potential that season with a modest warm ENSO actually differentiable (unlike today ...different argument/discussion) against a back-ground -AO/solar minimum frequency, that the whole thing effectively "split" ...less the Earth actually succeed in creating a Great Red Spot.  But that's all fun Sci-Fi chatter...

The point of this is yeah...big events do seem to herald 're-alignment' events at either the Hemispheric quadrature, or perhaps even larger, scales... And then once the new paradigm is realized, quiescence tends to ensue.   

Yet out here... the synoptic storm engine was able to churn out a season ender at least.  I remember so vividly wondering if that would ever happen again with that house-sucker storm ... and as day after day after day turned into over a month of same sunny, light wind, slow snow pack decay, the era become like Postpartum.  We did at last recoup one minor event in late Feb or early March; I almost wonder if that was like a redeveloper, and one in the same leading events. Mm. I'm gonna peruse the NCEP library on that -

Those dullard days of Jan 30th through late February in 1978 ...that's really the seed of my modern day preference for nickle-dime winters, and why 1995-1996 is actually preferred over 1977-1978 in my personal favorites annuls. 

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7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Teleconnections don’t look anything like the model guidance for early next week.  I’d be pretty surprised if next week doesn’t completely change stepwise for the worse (much warmer/less blocking) going forward...

Yeah...I've noticed this lately...  good point, too btw - 

The operational models have often at times (seemingly more so than usual) divorced from their own ensemble means and suggestions re the latter.  At least in so far as the GEFs.  I don't see the EPS hard numbers for the WPO, EPO... NAO. etc, but that sort of look you're pointing out, I have seen that be the case often since early November.  interesting...

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11 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Teleconnections don’t look anything like the model guidance for early next week.  I’d be pretty surprised if next week doesn’t completely change stepwise for the worse (much warmer/less blocking) going forward...

So are you saying a longer "warm spell" then others thought earlier? And,  did we loose are chance of sneaking a low/moderate event chance pre December 25th timeframe?

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Yeah, the overnight numbers from CDC and CPC are in .. *my sources seem to wait until 10am the following mornings to flush those.

JBenedet is right... if those tele's are any use, one should seek alternate channels for happiness and dopamine charging...ah-haha, that's the nice way to put it. Ironically, I mentioned needing a compelling reason...well -

Upon even partially registering that sentiment, the typical NE sub-forum regular stops reading... But, if your eyes have come this far along these words ... this whole snow storm in November and the concomitant cold that came along and surrounded it ...it all struck me as really being in with the same tendencies we've seen since the year 2000 demarcated 'the era of the autumn snows'

Will and I have expanded on this in the past ... at least for personal experience, the 1970's, 1980s and 1990s almost never snowed in October.  Since 2000, almost 50% ... I'm curious what this really looks like against an expanded comparison...going back hundreds of years.  It's an under-the-radar accomplishment, if (say)...in 200 years, there has never been a 20-year stint where it snowed in Octobers, 50% of the time.  That's the type of conclusion that starts to push up an eyebrow or two that something is happening.

Either way, regardless of exact cause of each, that is a fantastic turn of fortune for winter enthusiasts :thumbsup: ... This year, instead of the temporal distinction of October... 'perhaps' just pushed off a month.

But here's interesting aspect for me: whether it be 1986 or 2004 ... neither autumn necessarily parlayed to the ensuing winter ...

 

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19 minutes ago, 512high said:

So are you saying a longer "warm spell" then others thought earlier? And,  did we loose are chance of sneaking a low/moderate event chance pre December 25th timeframe?

No I’m just talking about next week, and especially the Sunday/Monday threat. My base case is many of us get warm - sectored. I also think there’s a better than equal chance it evolves into a cutter.

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10 hours ago, monadnocks said:

There should be several choices. I live at the bottom of a 1200’ hill so you could just drive up there. You can hike up the access road to South Pack (Miller State Park) and that’s  2290’. Across the road, Temple Mountain is 2044’. In Bennington, Crotched is 2064’. The Crotched Mountain Rehab Center in Greenfield is close to the same height and you can also drive to the top there. There’s a couple of hiking trails too. 

If you want small mountains, it’s not that far.

Believe me I kno most all the hills and elevations within 25+ miles of me, thou I wasn’t aware of the crotched rehab center 

 

did u record a measurement for the last snowstorm

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Believe me I kno most all the hills and elevations within 25+ miles of me, thou I wasn’t aware of the crotched rehab center 

 

did u record a measurement for the last snowstorm

does mount uncanoonuc in Goffstown help? Our 2way repeater communications equipment is up there with WMUR/ tv transmitter and many others, elevation 1,325 ft or so/

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51 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Teleconnections don’t look anything like the model guidance for early next week.  I’d be pretty surprised if next week doesn’t completely change stepwise for the worse (much warmer/less blocking) going forward...

Here is our warm up referenced below. The teleconnections look horrible, especially the AO which up to today was supposed to stay negative. Now looks to go strongly positive. 

 

WK34temp.gif

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30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Here is our warm up referenced below. The teleconnections look horrible, especially the AO which up to today was supposed to stay negative. Now looks to go strongly positive. 

 

WK34temp.gif

The usual suspects will post their dissent's in short order I daresay.

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The end of the latest GEFS were pretty warm and flooding the cold out of Canada and bringing lower heights over AK toward d16. Looks like a NW territory chinook. Gotta just let it play out a bit more. At least we can snow this time of year even with a meh pattern overall. It's just not overly cold.

gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_12.png

gfs-ens_T850aMean_nhem_12.png

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49 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Believe me I kno most all the hills and elevations within 25+ miles of me, thou I wasn’t aware of the crotched rehab center 

 

did u record a measurement for the last snowstorm

I don’t remember if I did. I tend to be the “stick a ruler in the snow whenever “ type person so maybe not as accurate as people want. We have 7.5” left on the ground.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The end of the latest GEFS were pretty warm and flooding the cold out of Canada and bringing lower heights over AK toward d16. Looks like a NW territory chinook. Gotta just let it play out a bit more. At least we can snow this time of year even with a meh pattern overall. It's just not overly cold.

It's sometimes hard to parse the hyperbole from reality. We can have like a week straight above normal. But if it's 41/27 stuff with a lot of -1 to -3 type 850 temps, that is still able to support snow events in the right setups. Or you can get those 38/33 mank airmasses that produce +6 daily departures due to the min temps being so high...but most people wouldn't call a high of 38 a torch. Yet, the daily averages would support a milder than average narrative. 

We don't know exactly what type of milder pattern it will be yet. It can still snow in mild patterns if we don't have a monster ridge sitting over us. 

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

No I’m just talking about next week, and especially the Sunday/Monday threat. My base case is many of us get warm - sectored. I also think there’s a better than equal chance it evolves into a cutter.

The 12z GFS just showed something like this....We went from being fringed and cold to wet with very little cold air around.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's sometimes hard to parse the hyperbole from reality. We can have like a week straight above normal. But if it's 41/27 stuff with a lot of -1 to -3 type 850 temps, that is still able to support snow events in the right setups. Or you can get those 38/33 mank airmasses that produce +6 daily departures due to the min temps being so high...but most people wouldn't call a high of 38 a torch. Yet, the daily averages would support a milder than average narrative. 

We don't know exactly what type of milder pattern it will be yet. It can still snow in mild patterns if we don't have a monster ridge sitting over us. 

Hopefully the warm up comes and goes without a huge impact on current snow pack up North, that way we don't have to "rebuild" it come January...

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2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

The 12z GFS just showed something like this....We went from being fringed and cold to wet with very little cold air around.

Yea cold will be fleeting around that time. This is increasingly looking like a cutter to me, and potentially a significant one. Just have to wait for guidance to catch up to reality...

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4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea cold will be fleeting around that time. This is increasingly looking like a cutter to me, and potentially a significant one. Just have to wait for guidance to catch up to reality...

Stinks but perhaps things will get more productive after the warm up.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Who was fretting/dissecting?  I saw one post by TBlizz just pointing out exactly what the GFS shows?

Agreed. Perhaps I have a different methodology— I also look at what guidance shows closer in time and fill in how it will evolve (in general) myself. This looks warm/wet for us even from hr 162... 

In more marginal events of course can’t do that, but I do *NOT* think is one of them...

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