USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 12z EURO produces a +PNA ridge out west way into the arctic circle, with a -NAO Greenland ridge, a 50/50 low position and a -AO polar vortex removed from the immediate region, with an active arctic jet stream, that spells trouble for the models to resolve the pattern with the storm on the 5th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 I'm hoping for a cold and snowy December. It's would be a shame to lose the deep snowcover in ski country. What an epic start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Last couple of euro runs just missing on a big phase. This from the 0z: This is the 12z run for the 5th of DEC, it shows the disconnect between the two streams, the Pacific disturbance is out way ahead of the arctic shortwave, allowing it to go out to sea, instead of digging the arctic shortwave into the Great Lakes region, the arctic shortwave is pushed eastward north of Lake Superior, this pushes our system out to sea without any fanfare. The GFS is opposite and instead pushes our shortwave over the coastline favoring interior for snowfall. A track down the middle seems most appropriate at this time. This is similar to the Jan 05 Blizzard H5 data on the 22nd at 12z. Not saying the same results will happen, just saying this has tremendous potential. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 JGW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 We're getting the post, Some need to take a deep breath and come up for air before you actually miss winter. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Dougy knows things 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 This thread has gone wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 28, 2018 Author Share Posted November 28, 2018 We like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Gonna be one of the biggest colossal EPS and weeklies busts we’ve seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 There it is..the first 1/22/05 reference. at least that I've seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: There it is..the first 1/22/05 reference. at least that I've seen I don't expect three feet of snow in December from a nor'easter, but the pattern that produced that system is in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 We've got chances dec 5-10 while almost the entire region had a frigid November ranging anywhere from above average to historic for snowfall. That's more than we can ask for in any given year. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 18z GFS is a benchmark track to the December 5th mid week storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Ok Ok, here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 We've got chances dec 5-10 while almost the entire region had a frigid November ranging anywhere from above average to historic for snowfall. That's more than we can ask for in any given year. Just your run of the mill -6.7 for the month on day 28 of November here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We've got chances dec 5-10 while almost the entire region had a frigid November ranging anywhere from above average to historic for snowfall. That's more than we can ask for in any given year. Of course that means some cancelled winter before December.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 The +PNA NW Canada ridge develops after 48 hours and lasts through the next 10-12 days at least. This pattern could support two or three major snowstorms in the next 10-12 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 We’ll remember this with winter moths and windows open on Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: We’ll remember this with winter moths and windows open on Christmas. I am not worried about the pattern in 25 days time, I am worried about it in the next 7 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 So we’re breaking out all time storm analogs because the end of the ensemble runs look like slightly more serviceable garbage? im not convinced after the first week or two of December we don’t enter a somewhat prolonged hostile stretch. Next week shows some promise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I am not worried about the pattern in 25 days time, I am worried about it in the next 7 days. How many amped up bombs have been favorable for your location through the first week of December historically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: How many amped up bombs have been favorable for your location through the first week of December historically? With a Quebec High, I say there can be and will be storms of the future and present that will surprise us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 2 great days in snow history targeted: 12/5 and 12/9. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 12-5 through 12-10 has been the target window. Why is it so bad to expect a break after? You guys have lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: So we’re breaking out all time storm analogs because the end of the ensemble runs look like slightly more serviceable garbage? im not convinced after the first week or two of December we don’t enter a somewhat prolonged hostile stretch. Next week shows some promise Singular 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Pete says hi says west Berks got hit hard all day. His pic from home. 6 plus yesterday today. Classic Dec sky 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Scott I am not doubting a mild period later on in December, I am just focused on the next 10 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Great look on the 18z gfs for SNE, especially pike south for 12/5... I’d take that and run. Turns into a nuke a little late for a big hit, but potential is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: 12-5 through 12-10 has been the target window. Why is it so bad to expect a break after? You guys have lost it. Few are worried about a mild period before the solstice. Having snow in December in nino years is generally a good sign. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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