LurkerBoy Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Record warm Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Record warm Sunday? I am pining for a very warm weekend day amid bare ground...I need to do the leaves...its snowed just as we settled in from the move. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 5 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Quick update, closing in on 7" in Williamsville and still borderline +SN. nice congrats on a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 GEFS snowy as hell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am pining for a very warm weekend day amid bare ground...I need to do the leaves...its snowed just as we settled in from the move. Rain on Sunday won't make for fun leaf cleanup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Rain on Sunday won't make for fun leaf cleanup As opposed to the fun ones? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 At least it will be a warm rain Rain on Sunday won't make for fun leaf cleanup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Rain on Sunday won't make for fun leaf cleanup I got lucky. During the week of 11/5 while I was away, the cleanup guys did their thing but then tons of leaves from dozens of trees come down to the back patio. Monday the 12th was a non work day and I did my own patio clean up. 3 days later we got 6+. Then I needed another cleanup as old oak leaves come down. Fortunately the guys came back. 12/5-12 looks ripe for real wintry wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: GEFS snowy as hell. Nice to hear...hope it plays out that way too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: As opposed to the fun ones? Dude! Leaf piles with dog shit and mold were the best growing up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Just now, butterfish55 said: At least it will be a warm rain Only the best rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: I got lucky. During the week of 11/5 while I was away, the cleanup guys did their thing and had their way with me on the back patio. Monday the 12th was a non work day and I did my own patio clean up. 3 days later I got 6+ right in me smetzer. Then I needed another cleanup as the old man still functions. Fortunately the guys came back. This old man looks ripe for real wintry xxx fun. Wowzers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 31 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Record warm Sunday? 40’s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: 40’s? 60s coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 The first 8-9 days has two potentials. I think that is fairly certain as far as potential goes. We just don’t know track details. The GEFS and GEM ensembles show you how a more Pacific pattern can still be ok. If one looks at H5 you will see more of a GOAK trough with weak ridging in west/Rockies. It’s not a great look, but it could be ok if it happens. It’s not a furnace look. Let’s hope for that. I hope people understand the difference between relaxation and pure Pacific garbage. The EPS would argue for garbage, but I did say relaxation earlier. I’m not sold on garbage yet, but I also think it’s untruthful to say cold and snowy all month. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 22 minutes ago, butterfish55 said: At least it will be a warm rain The rain on the MA plain Falls mainly In my back yard... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The first 8-9 days has two potentials. I think that is fairly certain as far as potential goes. We just don’t know track details. The GEFS and GEM ensembles show you how a more Pacific pattern can still be ok. If one looks at H5 you will see more of a GOAK trough with weak ridging in west/Rockies. It’s not a great look, but it could be ok if it happens. It’s not a furnace look. Let’s hope for that. I hope people understand the difference between relaxation and pure Pacific garbage. The EPS would argue for garbage, but I did say relaxation earlier. I’m not sold on garbage yet, but I also think it’s untruthful to say cold and snowy all month. Who said that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 11 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: The rain on the MA plain Falls mainly In my back yard... In my nasty yard.....I’m scarred....I’m scarred.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 40’s? Embrace it. Wall-to-wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: "...if we somehow "prolong" the cold because we get a weak EPO block that holds off the AK vortex from establishing itself by 3-4 days....then by the time it is able to move in, the hemispheric pattern is starting to become hostile to an AK vortex and perhaps we only see a brief mild period ..." yup...that 'bout sums it up for me. the EPO in the GEFs, I'm not sure how it compares to present EPS mean - Scott's been mentioning that it hasn't looked so good overall, but I'm not sure whether he was considering the EPO domain space and won't type words in his hand, but, I have personally noted that the GEFs seems to do very well with the EPO domain/index. That could certainly just be coincidental to the last five or so years, but they've predicted some of the NP-Lakes -...NE and southern Canada cold shots with very good lag - But even if the EPO's magnitude is not handled perfectly? I don't think that really matters for determinism. The index has had a neggie sag for like four to six days and it's getting more coherent. Enough so to question warm signals. I like the idea you implied there ...re the EPO sort of bullying into the 'relaxation'/warm up's wave space and sort of gumming that up. That's huge in the offset department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Embrace it. Wall-to-wall. That said, records are 65-70. Not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: That said, records are 65-70. Not gonna happen. That's like 45* here.....hardly above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: That said, records are 65-70. Not gonna happen. There's an outside shot. 12/2 is a susceptible day. I'm not warm sectoring up here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 We'd need to mix out and prob get some sun to get records....it looks pretty CADish at the moment...like maybe a brief spike to near 60F in the southern torch spots right before FROPA? Still 4+ days out though so it could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: We'd need to mix out and prob get some sun to get records....it looks pretty CADish at the moment...like maybe a brief spike to near 60F in the southern torch spots right before FROPA? Still 4+ days out though so it could change. Agreed, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Agreed, Monday could be a sneaky nice day....post-FROPA downslope dandy as the polar airmass is lagging the front by 24 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Yeah you can toss those warm temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 The two periods to watch still seem to be Dec 5-6 and Dec 8-9...hasn't changed on the 12z guidance. Hopefully we cash in on at least one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Snowy week next week and week after seems to be model concencus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Euro still has light snow Friday night. Maybe an inch or so pike south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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