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December Discussion


NorEastermass128
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20 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

For whom?  It never looked promising for me when I  looked at it prior to Thanksgiving.  NNE looked ok.

I said a week ago...as in the weekend before last.

I blogged regarding the potential within a long wave context...at that point, I wasn't concerned with whether it was best suited for Concord, NH or Concord, MA.

But there is a reason why I haven't followed up on it, obviously.

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4 hours ago, dendrite said:

It'd be funny if my coldest high temp for the winter happened on 11/22 (13F). We usually pull a single digiter at least once, but if we lose the big cold in Canada and just time a cold shot poorly it could actually happen. October has been my snowiest month before so stranger things have happened.

We hit -9F the morning after Thanksgiving here.  I mused to my wife that we might have set our low for the winter in November.  It's very possible.

 

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Yeah def keep an eye on 12/6-12/7ish. 

Hopefully we moderate the look by 12/12 shown on the ensembles. They lost the -NAO too in the LR which would exacerbate that bad PAC look. We will keep a close eye on the -EPO before that. If we can develop a bit of an EPO block, then the pattern shift could be muted quite a bit. Those are not easy to bully out that quickly. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah def keep an eye on 12/6-12/7ish. 

Hopefully we moderate the look by 12/12 shown on the ensembles. They lost the -NAO too in the LR which would exacerbate that bad PAC look. We will keep a close eye on the -EPO before that. If we can develop a bit of an EPO block, then the pattern shift could be muted quite a bit. Those are not easy to bully out that quickly. 

Also, the heights seem to be shuffling quickly so it doesn’t seem like a stable lock it in pattern.  We’re goood through d12 and sensible wx probably d16-18.  Long ways off.

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5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Also, the heights seem to be shuffling quickly so it doesn’t seem like a stable lock it in pattern.  We’re goood through d12 and sensible wx probably d16-18.  Long ways off.

Normally, seeing that show up in Dec. would paralyze me with fear, but I'm confident in the background conditions this season.

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12 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

At least you guy's don't live in the Mid ATL where it gets late early.

I Would consider from about Monmouth county NJ north and east closer to NE then MID ATL. That’s certainly been the case the last decade. 

I think it’s inevitable we see a relaxation. But a full on coast to coast torch ala 01/02 is extremely unlikely. 

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ah its all a crapshoot sometimes.  who knows.  maybe the blocking fizzles, or maybe it is more stubborn.  I will say one thing though...the past few years have shown us to respect the -EPO.  It has maintained and gotten us cold many times, even in patterns unfavorable for many in the East.  And it has brought a lot of snow.  I'm not sure I trust it being established and then leaving quickly.  All we know at this point is that it has been a stellar start for many, and there is potential for more.  And there is a deep snow pack building to our N and NW and NE

  • Haha 1
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