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WxWatcher007

The Panic Room--Winter 2018-2019

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1 minute ago, H2O said:

Don't laugh.  He clearly programmed it so he would know.

 

I'm sure you love the love/hate people have towards models.  Just the other day everyone was praising it cause it showed snow here.

I guess we need to have more weenies involved in the evaluation process.  Clearly, the professional meteorologists that helped get the package approved for implementation don't know what they are looking at.  Sad.

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Just now, dtk said:

I guess we need to have more weenies involved in the evaluation process.  Clearly, the professional meteorologists that helped get the package approved for implementation don't know what they are looking at.  Sad.

Bring back the DGEX. That was always the weenie model of choice.

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3 minutes ago, dtk said:

I guess we need to have more weenies involved in the evaluation process.  Clearly, the professional meteorologists that helped get the package approved for implementation don't know what they are looking at.  Sad.

You should program the models to show an HECS from day 16 all the way through every run...then lose it at 24 hours.  

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3 minutes ago, dtk said:

I guess we need to have more weenies involved in the evaluation process.  Clearly, the professional meteorologists that helped get the package approved for implementation don't know what they are looking at.  Sad.

Come on man, you're better than this. 

You know the mets that worked on the evaluation process weren't weenie enough. Models make snow, and they let us all down. 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

You should program the models to show an HECS from day 16 all the way through every run...then lose it at 24 hours.  

You're evil. 

  • Haha 1

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You should program the models to show an HECS from day 16 all the way through every run...then lose it at 24 hours.  

Not lose.  Turn it all to rain by making it a cutter

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There's a lot of laughing here, but I mean what I said - I was very curious to see if the FV3 standing (mostly) alone would sniff out something the other models were not sniffing out at medium range. It seems like the regular old GFS and the Euro were a little more on point.

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1 hour ago, supernovasky said:

There's a lot of laughing here, but I mean what I said - I was very curious to see if the FV3 standing (mostly) alone would sniff out something the other models were not sniffing out at medium range. It seems like the regular old GFS and the Euro were a little more on point.

As a reminder, this is what you actually said "Yeah, unfortunately for the rest of the season I'll be putting the FV3 in the same camp as the CMC. Sad, this is supposed to be America's "innovation" in weather forecasting.  In reality it looks like they just made the GFS worse."

 

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12 minutes ago, dtk said:

As a reminder, this is what you actually said "Yeah, unfortunately for the rest of the season I'll be putting the FV3 in the same camp as the CMC. Sad, this is supposed to be America's "innovation" in weather forecasting.  In reality it looks like they just made the GFS worse."

 

Perhaps a little bit of hyperbole in the panic room ;) Just curious, do you think the FV3 is a measurable improvement on the GFS? I've been keeping watch of it and I'm not quite convinced.

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35 minutes ago, dtk said:

As a reminder, this is what you actually said "Yeah, unfortunately for the rest of the season I'll be putting the FV3 in the same camp as the CMC. Sad, this is supposed to be America's "innovation" in weather forecasting.  In reality it looks like they just made the GFS worse."

 

LMAO

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51 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Perhaps a little bit of hyperbole in the panic room ;) Just curious, do you think the FV3 is a measurable improvement on the GFS? I've been keeping watch of it and I'm not quite convinced.

Yes, it is a measurable improvement over the current operational GFS.  We have the quantitative and qualitative assessments to prove it.

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23 minutes ago, dtk said:

Yes, it is a measurable improvement over the current operational GFS.  We have the quantitative and qualitative assessments to prove it.

Do you have a link to the quantitative assessments, out of curiosity?

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2 hours ago, supernovasky said:

Perhaps a little bit of hyperbole in the panic room ;) Just curious, do you think the FV3 is a measurable improvement on the GFS? I've been keeping watch of it and I'm not quite convinced.

I've noticed improvements in things that matter more then nailing the exact track of a mid latitude cyclone from 150 hours. It wasn't that far off either and a sample size of one isn't that significant. 

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23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I've noticed improvements in things that matter more then nailing the exact track of a mid latitude cyclone from 150 hours. It wasn't that far off either and a sample size of one isn't that significant. 

Just started following the FV3 with this storm and I thought it handled the 500's better then the GFS. But as you said, small sample size so let's see how it goes through the winter.

eta: I will be interested to see how it handles the thermals and the meso features in a couple of days.

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Just started following the FV3 with this storm and I thought it handled the 500's better then the GFS. But as you said, small sample size so let's see how it goes through the winter.

eta: I will be interested to see how it handles the thermals and the meso features in a couple of days.

It's been killing the gfs with thermals all fall. It also has been winning with the track of systems inside 100 hours when it's more critical.  Missing by 200 miles at day 7 might annoy us weenies and our tracking but it's less problematic to emergency management than missing by 100 miles at 48 hours. It also seems better with meso features so far. 

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18 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I refuse to bow at the altar of the computer models. 

I just monitor my barometric pressure and how my joints are feeling. 

And squirrels, don't forget the squirrels!

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In today's panic news: Storm somehow finds a way not to hit us despite a good pattern. PSU/BOB chill say "its just bad luck". Then comes the traditional line we heard all oif last year "The great pattern is just two weeks away".

Be sure to tune in on Christmas when we are in a bad pattern, and at that time, the good pattern will also be "two weeks away"

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1 hour ago, Mdecoy said:

In today's panic news: Storm somehow finds a way not to hit us despite a good pattern. PSU/BOB chill say "its just bad luck". Then comes the traditional line we heard all oif last year "The great pattern is just two weeks away".

Be sure to tune in on Christmas when we are in a bad pattern, and at that time, the good pattern will also be "two weeks away"

Yep.  We are close to punting December.  

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Let's just face it. This past storm obviously means this is going to be a year of suppression where Richmond and south posts unheard of snowfall numbers while north is left in the cold. Weather memory and all. Guess I will start making plans to chase south this year.

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48 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Let's just face it. This past storm obviously means this is going to be a year of suppression where Richmond and south posts unheard of snowfall numbers while north is left in the cold. Weather memory and all. Guess I will start making plans to chase south this year.

I don’t think that’s true.  But imagine if that did happen?  Of course the earth would still spin but this place would become an epic wasteland of negative posts, mass virtual suicides and trying to make the despair index go to 11...dogs and cats living together...total chaos!

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

I don’t think that’s true.  But imagine if that did happen?  Of course the earth would still spin but this place would become an epic wasteland of negative posts, mass virtual suicides and trying to make the despair index go to 11...dogs and cats living together...total chaos!

If I didn't love snow so much I would be game for that. Can you imagine the entertainment value that would afford us through winter? Man, I would have a field day trolling. And can you imagine how Ji would respond? That is almost worth not getting snow by itself. :lol:

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