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Guess The Date Of The Next 12"+ Snowstorm In The OKX Zones


bluewave
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There are some interesting surprises with the timing of 12"+ snowstorms during the historic 2010's snowfall era. The first unusual occurrence is that the October 29 to November 15 period has been more active than the December 1-15 interval. Another interesting pattern is the more active first half of March than the second part of February.

Roughly 2 week snowfall periods for the 2010's and number of 12"+ snowstorms

Oct 29-Nov 15.....3

Nov 16-Nov 30....0

Dec 1- Dec 15.....0

Dec 16-Dec 31....3

Jan1-Jan 15.......4

Jan16-Jan 31.....6

Feb 1-Feb 15.....7

Feb 16-Feb 28...1

Mar 1- Mar 15....6

Mar 16-Mar 31...1

Apr 1-Apr 16.....0

Individual events and the highest snowfall totals

2022

Jan 28-29….Islip….24.7

2021

Jan 31-Feb 2....Blomingdale, NJ.....26.1

2020

Dec 16-17 East Tremont, NY....12.4

2019

Mar 3-4...Monroe, CT....12.0

2018

Nov 15....Mount Hope, NY.......18.3

Mar 21-22...Patchogue, NY......20.1

Mar 13...Southampton,NY.....18.3

Mar 8....New Farfield, CT..........26.8

Mar 2...Monroe, NY.................14.0

Jan 4...Islip, NY.......................15.8

2017

Mar 14...Montgomery, NY.......23.5

Feb 9...Selden, NY...................16.0

Jan 7...Orient, NY....................12.5

2016

Feb 5...Setauket, NY................12.0

Jan 23..JFK,NY.........................30.5

2015

Feb 2..New Faifield, CT............12.0

Jan 26-27....Orient,NY.............28.5

2014

Feb 13-14...Roselle, NJ............16.7

Jan 21-22....Centerreach,NY....14.0

Jan 2-3......Lindenhurst, NY.....12.5

2013

Mar 8....Harriman,NY..............15.0

Feb 8....Upton, NY..................30.9

2012

Nov 7-8.....Monroe, CT..........13.5

Jan 21......North Haven, CT....12.0

2011

Oct 29.....Harriman, NY.........16.0

Jan 26-27...NYC................... 19.0

Jan 11-12.......Meriden, CT....29.0

2010

Feb 25-26...Mount Hope, NY...27.5

Dec 26........Elizabeth, NJ........31.8

Feb. 10.....Sound Beach, NY....16.2

2009

Dec 19-20....Upton, NY..........26.3

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1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

If I am reading your totals correctly, there are 27 such storms?

Truly remarkable

Would you happen to know the #'s for each preceding decade?

Yeah, 27 storms so far for the 2010’s is a remarkable number. It reflects the record amount of snowfall that has occurred in this decade. This increase in 12"+ snowstorms also shows up as a record number of KU storms for the 2010’s. The text product archive with all the snowstorms in the OKX zones is incomplete before 2008. 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml

Archive Completeness:

  • 1996 thru 2001: Sometimes sparse / missing data. Also note that product source IDs are likely different back then (prior to NWS Modernization), some work was done to assign present day WMO source IDs to the product metadata stored in the database. The original text as not modified. Known holes exist at: 29 Oct-1 Nov 1998, 24-27 Dec 1998, 25-28 Jul 1999, 21-25 Jan 2000, 26-27 Mar 2000, 12-13 Jun 2001, 28-29 Jul 2001.
  • 2002 thru 2007: More consistent archives, but still likely missing things. Much better coverage though.
  • 2008 thru now: Very good data coverage and higher fidelity archiving.
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  • 1 month later...
  • 1 month later...

Right at the expected peak period for 12”+ events since 2010.

Roughly 2 week snowfall periods for the 2010's and number of 12"+ snowstorms

Oct 29-Nov 15.....3

Nov 16-Nov 30....0

Dec 1- Dec 15.....0

Dec 16-Dec 31....3

Jan1-Jan 15.......4

Jan16-Jan 31.....5

Feb 1-Feb 15.....6

Feb 16-Feb 28...1

Mar 1- Mar 15....6

Mar 16-Mar 31...1

Apr 1-Apr 16.....0

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  • 11 months later...

This is the 12th storm since the 09-10 winter to produce a 20” or greater snowfall in our area.

 

SPOTTER      

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
ISLIP AIRPORT                24.7 IN   0700 PM 01/29   OFFICIAL NWS OBS     
BAY SHORE                    24.2 IN   0800 PM 01/29   NWS EMPLOYEE         
MEDFORD                      23.5 IN   0345 PM 01/29   TRAINED SPOTTER      
SMITHTOWN                    23.0 IN   0955 PM 01/29   TRAINED SPOTTER      
BELLPORT                     22.0 IN   0610 PM 01/29   PUBLIC               
SAINT JAMES                  21.6 IN   0855 PM 01/29   TRAINED SPOTTER      
1 W BLUE POINT               21.4 IN   0735 PM 01/29   NWS EMPLOYEE         
CENTEREACH                   21.4 IN   0448 PM 01/29   PUBLIC               
NORTH PATCHOGUE              21.4 IN   0425 PM 01/29   PUBLIC               
2 S DEER PARK                21.0 IN   0530 PM 01/29   PUBLIC               
SAYVILLE                     20.8 IN   0404 PM 01/29   NWS EMPLOYEE         
SMITHTOWN                    20.0 IN   0230 PM 01/29   TRAINED SPOTTER      
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