Malacka11 Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 TWC with that rapid change from less than an inch of snow to 5-8 inches. As long as the weakening trend doesn't continue... It'd be funny if they'd have to change it again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 When you're equally worried about being on the northern or southern edge that's usually a good sign. That's about how I feel for the QCA at this point lol. Will be curious to see what the Euro has in a few hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Ukie is with the others tracking the low through Central IL to Toledo to Hamilton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 FV3 shifted south but is still north of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: FV3 shifted south but is still north of the GFS. Very erratic track with the low including a big jump north from OK to near KC between 54-60. If this is the future of modeling... Just looking at the 500mb pattern too the low should be a touch south of that track before swinging NNE once it reaches Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 I'm just here for the comments. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Looking increasingly likely that this will be a moderate to high impact event in the LOT area. Best timing to minimize travel impacts would obviously be overnight hours but it appears it will get going before then. There may be less snow close to the lake (especially city/south) but as mentioned earlier, the marine influence with warmer low level temps should allow for stronger winds to mix down more easily, perhaps with a period of gusts near if not over 50 mph near the shore if the models with stronger wind fields pan out. Given that it will be a wetter snow near the lake, that is not a great combo but at least most of the leaves have fallen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Be careful of using 10:1 snowfall maps (yes I know some sites only offer that) but ratios will be higher than that back in the cold air in Iowa and near the river but could be a cement snow closer to the Chicago metro area. Going to try to make more an effort to get back on the forums, at least with this system with it looking to be a fairly impressive event for northern IL and the LOT CWA as it looks now (as Hoosier mentioned) Still a lot to be worked out but hopefully some details by tomorrow nights 0z runs with partial sampling. I like where I sit with this one, maybe favoring a little more west but nearly all 0z runs shifted south to an extent. Further west should have better ratios/more cold air earlier on to help with amounts. Good thing though is there is a nice GOM moisture feed looking at PWAT's which Euro has been most bullish with (2.0" of liquid totals across northeast IL) on the 12z run. See if it backs off that bullish juiced run shortly. The wind aspect is intriguing and impressive and given the pressure gradient on the northwest side of the surface low, it could be really nuts for awhile once the flip to snow occurs and regarding the flip, I could see it flip earlier given the nice UVV signal that is being shown (look at H7 UVV's on the 0z NAM run). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 The feature that becomes the Lakes/Hudson Bay low is entirely over land now. Still have to see how it behaves in the next couple days but the model trends have been to keep that around longer/farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The feature that becomes the Lakes/Hudson Bay low is entirely over land now. Still have to see how it behaves in the next couple days but the model trends have been to keep that around longer/farther south. The next 24 hours we should get a pretty good grasp on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 I'm not too concerned about ratios at this point as with the very strong winds we're going to be seeing quite a bit of granulation of the snow as it falls. I think I'll be conservative and go with a 10:1 ratio for that reason, but at this point I'm more concerned about placement of the heavy snow axis. NAM forecast soundings show 50-55kts as low as 925mb directly in line with the heavy snow axis. It's certainly looking like there could be an axis of heavy snow simultaneously occurring with 50-60mph wind gusts. Seriously wouldn't be surprised if blizzard warnings are eventually warranted for wherever that sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Euro took a decent jump south, like the rest of 00z. CR/IC gets actively avoided by any formidable winter storm I swear. EDIT: To support this, I've only measured 12" once in 10 years and Hawkeye never has. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: I'm not too concerned about ratios at this point as with the very strong winds we're going to be seeing quite a bit of granulation of the snow as it falls. I think I'll be conservative and go with a 10:1 ratio for that reason, but at this point I'm more concerned about placement of the heavy snow axis. NAM forecast soundings show 50-55kts as low as 925mb directly in line with the heavy snow axis. It's certainly looking like there could be an axis of heavy snow simultaneously occurring with 50-60mph wind gusts. Seriously wouldn't be surprised if blizzard warnings are eventually warranted for wherever that sets up. Yeah you look good out there for sure from a ratios perspective. Would be more worried into the eastern half of the LOT CWA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Lock in the 00z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Lock in the 00z Euro Not to be needy, but could you send another image? Share the beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 8 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Yeah you look good out there for sure from a ratios perspective. Would be more worried into the eastern half of the LOT CWA For sure, especially near the lake. To illustrate, here is the NAM. This is well after the changeover and it is still above freezing, and a few degrees above freezing near the water. That being said, I'm not gonna invest too much time into figuring out how much the lake will impact the totals until the track is nailed down more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Man it brings a patch of PWAT around 0.70" though the area at the height of the storm, it is going to be pound town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: For sure, especially near the lake. To illustrate, here is the NAM. This is well after the changeover and it is still above freezing, and a few degrees above freezing near the water. That being said, I'm not gonna invest too much time into figuring out how much the lake will impact the totals until the track is nailed down more. The Euro actually has a track and low evolution very similar to the NAM too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 minute ago, Malacka11 said: Not to be needy, but could you send another image? Share the beauty I don't believe I can share WxBell but Aurora gets around .4" liquid the best stripe is along and south of 80 this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 lol.... A classic Linn County cut-off. (Yes its kuchera but it's not my map and that's my excuse). As it always seems, CR is riding the edge on much of the guidance and 8" and literally nothing are both equally valid solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 New Euro delivers some very intense snowfall rates over southeast IA Sunday afternoon. Blending most of the guidance together gives much of the DVN cwa warning criteria snows, with possible blizzard criteria as well. They'll need to bump up their concern in subsequent discussions/forecasts. They've been a bit conservative up to this point, especially for the southeast half of the cwa. Definitely the right way to play it up to this point, but it's probably time to show a bit more concern for the southeast half of the cwa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Southwest portion of the LOT CWA destroyed this run, really I-80 and south do well and far northern Illinois does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 The new hotness. Talking B word now for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 It appears much of Iowa is getting the rug pulled from under it. You just can't get too excited until a storm is within 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 10 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: The new hotness. Talking B word now for sure Yep likewise out this way, not quite to Chicago levels but sustained at 20-25 gusts to 35. Would be pretty intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Wow at today’s trends. Huge south shift. Wonder if it’ll continue or if things will correct back north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 49 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: The new hotness. Talking B word now for sure Shaping up to be the most blizzardy storm in LOT's area since 2/24/2016. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 The 00z consensus sfc low track is pretty climatologically ideal for heavy snow in the Chicago area from a west to east/WSW to ENE tracking system. Not surprised given that parent wave is still out in Pacific but what a shift from earlier runs, especially the more amped/NW ones. Plenty of details to sort out including potential for further shifts of surface low track, but if we can get something close to average of the track of 00z op runs, will feel good about a swath of heavy snow here. As has been posted at length about, winds look very impressive. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Apologies if this has been said already, but this storm could be even more impactful due to the fact Sunday is a huge travel day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 06z NAM crushes the IA/IL border into southern Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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