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Malacka11

Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential

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Just now, purduewx80 said:

pretty much a slam dunk blizzard for chicagoland is incoming. convection feeding into the ccb is always a good sign that gravity waves will easily penetrate down to the surface. same as in ghd2. that's a wall of snow incoming on radar, too.

They are gonna get pasted but good.

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2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

I still have this concern ...if fact the new HRRR has cut snow totals for the city of peoria 

 

also I believe there is a slug of warm air aloft surging north over Ne IL at this time..

the bright returns on the radar are edging north 

For reference, here's the new HRRR. It actually gives Macomb a bit more snow.

smeowfksdlfg.PNG

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1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

I still have this concern ...if fact the new HRRR has cut snow totals for the city of peoria and the rain snow line seems to have stalled for  now

 

also I believe there is a slug of warm air aloft surging north over Ne IL at this time..

the bright returns on the radar are edging north 

I second this.  Some waa sneaking it's way in

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2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

pretty much a slam dunk blizzard for chicagoland is incoming. convection feeding into the ccb is always a good sign that gravity waves will easily penetrate down to the surface. same as in ghd2. that's a wall of snow incoming on radar, too.

No doubt that converts to snow with insane rates very shortly, but for the time being it looks like there's still a lot of sleet/mixed precip(especially SW of the metro).

951caa969c6308e1cd25be6dc7298e7e-jpg.jpg

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Just now, hlcater said:

No doubt that converts to snow with insane rates very shortly, but for the time being it looks like there's still a lot of sleet/mixed precip(especially SW of the metro).

951caa969c6308e1cd25be6dc7298e7e-jpg.jpg

Yep. Just got better looking CC and radar returns which related to much higher snow rates 

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Wow, your big winter storm for northwest of Chicago, 15z SREFs bring almost a foot and a half of snow to parts of IL and southeast IA.  Keep the reports coming, I love winter storms.

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Just surpassed the 5" mark, with the RAP and HRRR both showing another 0.7-0.8" more precip after 6pm.  Looks like we got a footer in the bag unless something unforeseen happens.  Had about a half inch at 2:40pm, so it's averaging a little over 1.5" per hour.  This stuff is surprisingly easy to measure.  Not really blowing around at all on the ground yet.  Snow is still very wet.

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4 minutes ago, miamarsden8 said:

For reference, here's the new HRRR. It actually gives Macomb a bit more snow.

smeowfksdlfg.PNG

the "wavy" portion from PIA to LOT is the model trying to figure out the WAA Versus convective cooling battle.  

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2 minutes ago, Kaner88 said:

CC loop (https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LOT-N0C-1-24) showing the rain/snow line making a stand in the northern suburbs, it appears. Also edging east into the western suburbs, nighttime coming to the rescue

LOT.N0C.20181125.2325.gif

I'm right on the edge of the pink and yellow in Kane county. Can hear some sleet against the window. Hopefully this is a short burst before it changes over to snow. 

 

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It looks like some models are producing Lake Enhanced snows over Chicago, which is why a bullseye is over the city.  Especially probable on northeasterly winds as the storm passes by.

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What an impressive early season storm. It's going to make history for Chicago and surrounding areas. Radar returns look amazing. Would love to experience the blizzard. 

Stay safe everyone! 

 

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Hard to tell since I'm staring at my porch light but it looks like MBY (few miles north of ORD) will kick off with light snow rather than rain. Radar would suggest some heavy stuff but seems like the first precipitation is beating back the dry slot.

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33 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Muscatine AWOS just recorded a 61mph gust. 

 

Just recorded a second 67mph gust. 

Muscatine wind gusts are much higher than surrounding stations. Equipment problem?

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Just now, Malacka11 said:

It looks like we're right on the line on radar, but it's just pouring rain out here man 

Hope you get snow soon, I am sure you will

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HRRR suggests relatively little movement of the rain/snow line in Cook county over the next couple hours.

It appears the rain/snow line is actually a bit west of where the model has it at 00z, at least in the Chicago area.

HRRRCHI_prec_ptype_001.png.6058580703471cbf6d56b84c442ec4aa.png

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Just now, Hoosier said:

HRRR suggests relatively little movement of the rain/snow line in Cook county over the next couple hours.

It appears the rain/snow line is actually a bit west of where the model has it at 00z, at least in the Chicago area.

HRRRCHI_prec_ptype_001.png.6058580703471cbf6d56b84c442ec4aa.png

But it's also about 10 miles south of where any NWS people had predicted it over here, and I'm so, so happy about it.

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Just now, DaveNay said:

You know it's an "event" when the out-of-forum members are stalking us! Welcome!

 

Just now, DaveNay said:

You know it's an "event" when the out-of-forum members are stalking us! Welcome!

Thanks, I love snowstorms.

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Just now, Jebman said:

Hope you get snow soon, I am sure you will

Thanks for the cheerful words lol. I'm anxious but I've got nothing to fear, the changeover has been predicted to occur around now for hours. It's not like I'm behind schedule lol. It'll be a fun night once it gets going.

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