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Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential


Malacka11
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7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Well, the 3km NAM just made the model porn hall of fame for this area.  3" of precip, and 2ft of snow.  Obviously way overdone, but man this storm is really turning out to be something special. 

2hmitrp.jpg

103bio3.png

It also showed like 0.50” of FZR for many areas. Not really sure what was up with that. Setup doesn’t really support it. Surface temps should cool slower than those aloft in this storm. I don’t see much of a window for any mixed precip really, maybe some sleet early on in heavier bands due to temps being slightly warmer(and above freezing) around 700mb but below freezing at 850mb but mostly just clean R/S. 

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11 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:
Well, the 3km NAM just made the model porn hall of fame for this area.  3" of precip, and 2ft of snow.  Obviously way overdone, but man this storm is really turning out to be something special. 
2hmitrp.jpg&key=68ac4040c918ffa77fa421f09240c994434aae17491c404aa56feac2143fbecc
103bio3.png&key=ff72366f4bbe7d8d472136e12e79b5b77db9e428eca4e82f2ce3c730294f0926

Wow I am literally right on the line of potentially not seeing a flake while 10 miles to the SE gets several inches.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 

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3km NAM forecast soundings are continuing to look very impressive for wind potential.  55-60kts at the top of the mixing layer, with heavy precip ongoing, and potential gravity wave interactions as well with the convection.  The model is forecasting widespread 25-30kt sustained winds at the surface beneath the CCB in the heavy snow axis.  That alone would imply 45mph+ gust potential, but given what I pointed out above I think we have a good chance to see 50-60mph gusts in the heavy snow axis.  Really think DVN will need to upgrade much of the cwa to a blizzard warning.

n2ddkx.jpg

npkpw7.jpg

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4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

There are now multiple models showing 2"+ of precip in the main heavy snow axis across northern IL.  It's not just the NAM that's going ballistic.  As Ron Burgundy said this escalated quickly lol.

Seems like they all are slowing and strengthening the upper levels after the sampling yesterday allowing more of the Pacific moisture to wrap up.  

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6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

3km NAM forecast soundings are continuing to look very impressive for wind potential.  55-60kts at the top of the mixing layer, with heavy precip ongoing, and potential gravity wave interactions as well with the convection.  The model is forecasting widespread 25-30kt sustained winds at the surface beneath the CCB in the heavy snow axis.  That alone would imply 45mph+ gust potential, but given what I pointed out above I think we have a good chance to see 50-60mph gusts in the heavy snow axis.  Really think DVN will need to upgrade much of the cwa to a blizzard warning.

n2ddkx.jpg

npkpw7.jpg

The RAP actually has an area of 50 kts at 950 mb northwest of the low.  That is not something you see very often.

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5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

In the exact same boat as you. I feel your pain

Me too. Right in the transition zone between a foot and nothing. Only the north-y 00z GFS places is square in the heavy snow axis, giving us over a foot, and I can’t trust it. The official forecast is 1.5-3 inches, but most models place us in that transition “gradient” with 2-5 inches predicted

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2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Meso agrees...

pmsl.gif?1543122724949

Pretty trivial I imagine but just comparing some of the 0z suite to the above image: HRRR & RAP struggling with strength, wanting it to be ~2-3mb stronger than it is. NAM 3km looks pretty spot-on with both strength and location. We'll just have to see what happens

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22 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

12/11/2000 and 11/21/2015 are both on the CIPS analog list.  

Two vastly different storms imho. Dec 2000 was a legit bliz in a cold regime autumn. 2015 was a wet dumping during 3 days of winter surrounded by torch autumn. This storm is the opposite here at least. A 3 day warm spell surrounded by BN regime autumn.

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21 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said:

Me too. Right in the transition zone between a foot and nothing. Only the north-y 00z GFS places is square in the heavy snow axis, giving us over a foot, and I can’t trust it. The official forecast is 1.5-3 inches, but most models place us in that transition “gradient” with 2-5 inches predicted

Well at this point I'm more inclined to believe the more northerly models. Before it looked like the low would track right along I70 but now it's looking closer to I72 which is terrible for me

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If this has been posted apologize.  ...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
819 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018

.UPDATE...
819 PM CST

Have issued a lake shore warning for Cook County IL as well as
Lake and Porter Counties in Indiana for Sunday night into Monday
morning. Lake levels remain nearly 3 feet above chart datum and
around 1 foot higher than the Halloween storm of 2014 which
flooded north bound lanes of Lake Shore Dr in Chicago. Tough to
say just how bad the lake shore flooding will get, comparing this
set-up to the Oct 2014 event, this event has a more favorable wind
direction and higher lake levels, but the fetch of the strongest
winds will be shorter and the duration of the high winds will be
less. Given the expectation of near storm force onshore winds
Sunday night, there is definitely a potential for flooding making
it to Lake Shore Dr, so have opted to with a warning rather than
an advisory.
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Not too impressed with DVN this evening.  Given all that's gone on this evening with these crazy models they've been as quiet as a church mouse.  They need to make some upward adjustments on amounts in their forecast grids, and also upgrade to a blizzard warning for much of the cwa.  

I usually try not to be too critical as obviously they're the professionals, but I think tonight they need to be a little more proactive with what's going down.

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