Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Omega, you said? Northern IL Holy moly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Hmm, the ticks north in the 0z suite so far are catching my eye here a few miles north of ORD. Might need to think about the possibility of some mixing instead of just snow if that trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 I don't know what this means.. Care to elaborate for us newbies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 30 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Omega, you said? Northern IL Beautiful. I can’t remember when I’ve seen such verticals like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Omega, you said? Northern IL This is going to be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 13 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: I don't know what this means.. Care to elaborate for us newbies? Newest Computer forecast models are placing the low ever so slightly north of what was predicted earlier. This can result in folks on the north side of the storm getting snow when they might not have otherwise if the storm passed them to the south. Furthermore, the warm sector usually is on the south side of the storm. This means someone on the southern side of the precipitation might be more likely to get rain because the warm air on the south side ends up reaching a little bit further north. It can get complicated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 FV3 going to ride that NW position until the final curtain call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 24 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Omega, you said? Northern IL Thats the winter version of this... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 Ehh, seeing that everything is shifting North again, I'll shift back to being satisfied with 3 inches in Aurora. Enough to make the ground white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 I must be missing something here, any shifts to the north this run cycle have been very minor and the HRRR has actually shifted a bit south run to run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, Stebo said: I must be missing something here, any shifts to the north this run cycle have been very minor and the HRRR has actually shifted a bit south run to run. Mostly noise at this point, but understandably, those on the northern periphery have been rejoicing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, Stebo said: I must be missing something here, any shifts to the north this run cycle have been very minor and the HRRR has actually shifted a bit south run to run. A lot of rookies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 00z GFS holds serve for those hoping for a north shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Mostly noise at this point, but understandably, those on the northern periphery have been rejoicing. Yeah it isn't a shift north but more of an expansion of the precip shield. 1 minute ago, Baum said: A lot of rookies. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Mostly noise at this point, but understandably, those on the northern periphery have been rejoicing. Given the trends tonight, I think anybody on the northern edge of where the Euro had the significant snow should be feeling cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Don’t understand why anyone would be giving up in the slightest. Chances are the track will be about the same as what was proved a few hours ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 GFS a hair north with the heavier stuff. Expands it out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: 00z GFS holds serve for those hoping for a north shift. Yeah it is sticking to the northern end, at this point I would slant toward mesoscale/short term models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: I must be missing something here, any shifts to the north this run cycle have been very minor and the HRRR has actually shifted a bit south run to run. Yeah really just nitpicking on my part- have been perpetually scarred by any risk of mixing after I went to bed one night years ago with a 16” WSWarning, woke up to 4” of utter slush... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 GFS is a bit slower as trends have been so far this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Come to me my precious 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, mimillman said: GFS is a bit slower as trends have been so far this evening That has been the noticeable trend for today, the slowing of the system itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, mimillman said: GFS is a bit slower as trends have been so far this evening Hanging on into morning rush on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 11 minutes ago, Stebo said: I must be missing something here, any shifts to the north this run cycle have been very minor and the HRRR has actually shifted a bit south run to run. I might just be trash, but it sure looks like things have come north about a county(20 Miles) in Iowa. It’s not a lot, but enough to put CR back in contention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, hlcater said: I might just be trash, but it sure looks like things have come north about a county(20 Miles) in Iowa. It’s not a lot, but enough to put CR back in contention. I would say the precip field has, I am looking at this from a low track point of view and to me the low tracks have been the same or in some cases especially east they have come further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 6 minutes ago, Stebo said: I would say the precip field has, I am looking at this from a low track point of view and to me the low tracks have been the same or in some cases especially east they have come further south. That is one thing that struck me odd about the storm as a whole, the precip shield(especially the snow) was very close to the surface low. Every model was similar in that regard however. This storm was like that from the beginning though so never really expected that to change. Although the northward expansion of the precip shield as a whole is nice to see. It doesn’t take a whole lot of change out here with the cutoff the way it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 LOT update: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Well, the 3km NAM just made the model porn hall of fame for this area. 3" of precip, and 2ft of snow. Obviously way overdone, but man this storm is really turning out to be something special. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Too many models...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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