weatherbo Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 At 27, it looks like a bullseye for the city or slightly north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, weatherbo said: At 27, it looks like a bullseye for the city. If you could lemme know how it looks out this way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 hr 36: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 LOT aviation update is almost like a mini afd .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... MVFR cigs over far northern IL likely to linger through much of tonight and probably slowly sink south as low level flow veers to a more northerly direction through the night. Primary focus of this TAF cycle is on the impending winter storm Sunday afternoon and night. WINTER STORM FORECAST: Overview: East-west oriented band of rain or rain/snow mix will develop across northern IL Sunday morning. Band will probably set up close to ORD/DPA/RFD, outside of that band look for mainly dry conditions during the morning and afternoon. Main slug of precipitation, likely becoming heavy at times will overspread the terminals between 21-00z and continue through 04-07z. Precip type: Initially precip likely to be rain, transitioning to snow at ORD/DPA/MDW between 21-00z, GYY likely after 00z, and RFD prior to 18z. Winds: Northeast winds develop by mid-morning Sunday and then slowly ramp up through midday into the afternoon, likely becoming stronger and more gusty by late afternoon. Winds will likely peak Sunday evening (after 00z) with frequent gusts 30-35kt likely with gusts over 40kt possible (likely over 40kt at GYY closer to the lake). Sunday evening, wind direction will slowly back from NE (030-050) to a more northerly direction (360-020). Visibilities/CIGS: Initially MVFR conditions Sunday afternoon should quickly deteriorate to IFR by early Sunday evening with LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/Vsby both likely at times Sunday evening. All indications are that MDW will drop below mins in heavy snow Sunday evening with ORD and MDW both potentially experiencing temporary blizzard conditions with Vsby less than 1/4SM. Snowfall Rates, Accumulations, & Blowing/Drifting: Snowfall rates of at least 1" per hour are fairly likely at times, mainly between 22z- 04z. There is a chance of snowfall rates exceeding 2" per hour in the heaviest band. Storm total snowfall for ORD/MDW looks to be in the 6-10" range. Snow is expected to be fairly heavy and wet, which should reduce the severity of blowing and drifting, however given winds gusting between 30-40kt Sunday evening, some blowing and drifting of even the heavier wet snow is likely. - Izzi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherbo said: hr 36: Bah 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Bah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, weatherbo said: I take back my 'bah' 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, weatherbo said: Could you post the Kuchera version? That one from the 12z run was posted earlier so that would be a better comparison to see how it shifted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Could you post the Kuchera version? That one from the 12z run was posted earlier so that would be a better comparison to see how it shifted. Sorry, I don't have a Kuchera option... 'least not that I see. Last one for the Canucks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Seems to me like the 18z Euro shifted north a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 End of the run for western NY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Seems to me like the 18z Euro shifted north a little Not sure it shifted. It just has a wider jackpot zone. Also not as brutally sharp cutoffs. Probably not realistic though as the mesoscale bands will have brutal cutoffs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Nice screw job for scentral WI after some of the solutions a few days ago. I'm disappointed and I don't even particularly like snow. Rather get it now than in March and April.Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Intriguing. The Euro is holding strong... someone’s going to bust, but I will say - the Euro does have a more natural look to it versus some of the other guidance that just seems to dry up on the east side of Lake Michigan whilst the storm is still deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Not sure it shifted. It just has a wider jackpot zone. Also not as brutally sharp cutoffs. Probably not realistic though as the mesoscale bands will have brutal cutoffs I'm talking like 10 or 15 miles lol. The northern extent and the southern extent looks like a shift by about that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Not sure it shifted. It just has a wider jackpot zone. Also not as brutally sharp cutoffs. Probably not realistic though as the mesoscale bands will have brutal cutoffs Could represent bands that shift a bit during the duration of the storm though too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 I'll take one or two more of them 10/15 mile nudges of northern extent shifts if the Euro is handing them out. Its the only model that still holds weight to me. I miss the EURO/NAM combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Somebody asked why their wife left them on the LOT Twitter q&a. 5 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 A: That will happen if you hang around with models all day. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 This has been a pretty slick November to date. And now we have a storm barreling down on Chicago during thanksgiving travels to deliver thundersnow. This is shaping up to be one thats remembered for a long time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Euro seems wider, still narrow cut off, but spreads it south... Amazed at the small scale size of the storm and the punch that it will pack. I think that 4-10" is a good call. Lakefront will miss out on a lot of that but the cut off is still nice to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Also, quoting LOT's winter outlook that I was reading last week: "If a signifiant snowfall occurs prior to start of December, probability of above normal snowfall for the fall-spring season will increase." Could shape up to be a fun winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: Also, quoting LOT's winter outlook that I was reading last week: "If a signifiant snowfall occurs prior to start of December, probability of above normal snowfall for the fall-spring season will increase." Could shape up to be a fun winter. And if it doesn't, then the chances decrease.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 9 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: And if it doesn't, then the chances decrease.. Mother nature keeps a tight calendar. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 New HRRR. 0z run is very amped up with the low and has the track very north. It has mixing issues pretty much all day Sun in IL all the way to the MS. Except far northern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: New HRRR. 0z run is very amped up with the low and has the track very north. It has mixing issues pretty much all day Sun in IL all the way to the MS. Except far northern IL I don’t think what you’re referring to is mixing, it’s just heavy snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 That 00z HRRR is extremely impressive. One for the books for the QCA. Haven't made my first call yet, but I guess I'll go with 10-12" for here/QC. Gonna stick with 10:1 LSR due to very wet snows to start, and some granulation from the very strong winds. LSRs would likely be much higher as the storm goes on, and underneath the enhanced bands, but I think 10:1 avg throughout works well for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: I don’t think what you’re referring to is mixing, it’s just heavy snow. Yeah, there's a thin stripe of sleet on the southern end but that is mostly heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: I don’t think what you’re referring to is mixing, it’s just heavy snow. I agree. Meanwhile, I'll be hoping for thunderstorms IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: I don’t think what you’re referring to is mixing, it’s just heavy snow. That would be some mix. Sleet, snow. Not solid snow. Esp given where it tracks the low near I72. One thing I have noticed, even with HRRR, is that it tends to miss how rapid dynamic cooling can take place. Changeover could be quicker than it shows. Do you think the low will track that north? My gut has always been on I70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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