Hoosier Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 I'd say there's a decent chance somebody in LOT's cwa meets blizzard criteria. If not in the rural areas then closer to the lake, even with less snow/blowing snow there. The heavy snow rates will be a big component in getting the visibility down to 1/4 mile/less, with any blowing snow just an added bonus to that end. Also will have a better chance of more frequent gusts over 35 mph the closer you get to the lake. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Somebody post the 18z Euro when it comes out. Curious to see if it holds or if it bumps north at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 I am getting a little concerned about flying in to Chicago O'Hare tomorrow. However, I have to admit, the kid in me says "this is going to be fun". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Somebody post the 18z Euro when it comes out. Curious to see if it holds or if it bumps north at all. Some of the higher res guidance(and the GFS) have nudged north about half a county. Not enough for me, but maybe for Hawkeye? Could just be noise too. After all, it is very minute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 11 minutes ago, hlcater said: Some of the higher res guidance(and the GFS) have nudged north about half a county. Not enough for me, but maybe for Hawkeye? Could just be noise too. After all, it is very minute. I don’t know entirely but the future radar prediction tool on the weather channel is coming in looking really north. I have to wonder if that tool uses up to date modeling or how it is generated. But my hopes are up for you and Hawkeye. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 12 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said: I don’t know entirely but the future radar prediction tool on the weather channel is coming in looking really north. I have to wonder if that tool uses up to date modeling or how it is generated. But my hopes are up for you and Hawkeye. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 If you want to see I think the most extreme solution yet for this event, check out the 18z HRDPS on Tropical Tidbits. Pure model porn lol. 2"+ qpf amounts in the max axis over northern IL.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 19 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said: I don’t know entirely but the future radar prediction tool on the weather channel is coming in looking really north. I have to wonder if that tool uses up to date modeling or how it is generated. But my hopes are up for you and Hawkeye. Really dude? I’m wanting this to come north as much as you, but the TWC future radar is lolworthy. Don’t use it. I dont expect t to come north but I’d be ecstatic if it did. Looks to slide just south of me, and that hasn’t really changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: If you want to see I think the most extreme solution yet for this event, check out the 18z HRDPS on Tropical Tidbits. Pure model porn lol. 2"+ qpf amounts in the max axis over northern IL. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk This won’t verify. But if it did, would be a dream and nightmare scenario around N IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: If you want to see I think the most extreme solution yet for this event, check out the 18z HRDPS on Tropical Tidbits. Pure model porn lol. 2"+ qpf amounts in the max axis over northern IL. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I particularly like this ring of lows feature 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Can we just go ahead and call this thing GHDIII?? Haven't had time to look at everything yet, but from what I've seen the models came in quite a bit more juiced today to match last night's Euro. Feeling confident we have a shot at a foot here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 If you're in Chicago or nearby, I'd pay particularly close attention to the timeframe from about 00z-03z tomorrow. Tremendous lift coming through around that time and if there's going to be a time when the rain/snow line jumps southeast quicker than progged, that would be it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 I'm mad jealous. Literally the extreme nw portion of my county could see warning criteria while the se portion sees nothing. Unbelievable. Hoping for a slight southward shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Some of the forecast soundings off the 18z HRRR are showing 65kts at 925 northwest of the low later tomorrow afternoon. That's seriously impressive. With heavy precip falling and some convective elements it would result in very strong wind gust potential simultaneous with heavy snow falling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: If you're in Chicago or nearby, I'd pay particularly close attention to the timeframe from about 00z-03z tomorrow. Tremendous lift coming through around that time and if there's going to be a time when the rain/snow line jumps southeast quicker than progged, that would be it. Fly into Midway tomorrow at 4:30pm. I changed my flight from 1:00am originally for exactly that reason, hoping to get in before the worst of the wind/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Some of the forecast soundings off the 18z HRRR are showing 65kts at 925 northwest of the low later tomorrow afternoon. That's seriously impressive. With heavy precip falling and some convective elements it would result in very strong wind gust potential simultaneous with heavy snow falling. What's the mixing like? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: If you're in Chicago or nearby, I'd pay particularly close attention to the timeframe from about 00z-03z tomorrow. Tremendous lift coming through around that time and if there's going to be a time when the rain/snow line jumps southeast quicker than progged, that would be it. If I remember a chart I’ve looked at before, that would be 6-9pm, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Just now, Sciascia said: If I remember a chart I’ve looked at before, that would be 6-9pm, correct? Yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: What's the mixing like? Looks like it mixes up pretty close to 925mb. Just high enough to tap into those higher velocities. Heavy precip should help to drag some of that down as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 @MikeHamernik (WGN-Chicago met): 4PM: New run of our in house model. No real change in track from previous thinking. Storm looks more intense, thus upped totals 1”-3”, esp. north. “High impact storm” on travel. Crews won’t be able to keep up with snowfall rates Thundersnow for some Power outages #ILwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: What's the mixing like? Guess I could just post it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Blog post is done and up https://piechotawx.blogspot.com/2018/11/112518-major-winter-storm-with-possible.html 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 minute ago, Thundersnow12 said: Blog post is done and up https://piechotawx.blogspot.com/2018/11/112518-major-winter-storm-with-possible.html Looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 We're doing a Q&A on LOT FB and Twitter between 610 and 7pm if anyone is interested in asking us questions. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Blog post is done and up https://piechotawx.blogspot.com/2018/11/112518-major-winter-storm-with-possible.html Solid job. Mike Hamernik mentioned thundersnow potential in his tweet a few minutes ago. Would be sweet to see in November. Is Weather Channel sending Cantore somewhere for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Well, I'm back home from the holiday period up in NW IN Calumet region and going to be monitoring all you enthusiastic folk getting a whopping upcoming early season snowstorm. Going to be mainly rain with a push to sixty degrees Sunday here in Indy metro. May the moisture help all of you out with this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 18z FV3-GFS shows a 2" precip lolly over northwest IL. Loving the jacked runs today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Anyone know what 18z euro showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 3km NAM forecasting 10-14mm/hr instantaneous rates with those convective elements later tomorrow. That's pushing 0.50"/hr precip rate. It's only instantaneous, but indicates the kind of intensity we may see with the convective elements tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Anyone know what 18z euro showed? I'm at hr 9. I'll post in a bit. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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