Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    kgottwald
    Newest Member
    kgottwald
    Joined
Malacka11

Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential

Recommended Posts

Boy what a tricky call.  For ORD itself, I think I'd start with 6-10".  Was contemplating a bit more but just too much uncertainty with low level temps. In the heart of the city/near the lake I'd cut that to 2-4" but that is basically a stab in the dark and wouldn't be surprised if I'm wrong.  In that area it looks like a lot of precip could be wasted as rain or wet snow with temps in the mid 30s.

I'm definitely leaning heavily toward the close miss scenario around here, even with the 12z UKMET trying to keep my hopes up by remaining south.  In fact it may be rather heartbreaking watching that band of snow ripping not too far to my north tomorrow afternoon.  But all I really wanted was some snow and a period of high winds, which looks like it will happen... eventually.  For my backyard, I'd only go 1-2" at this point.  We will be facing similar issues as downtown Chicago with the marine influence tending to keep temps elevated until the flow turns more offshore.  Still holding out a shred of hope for a colder solution but that's the way I see it for now.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gonna go first call 8.1” for ORD.

Nice shift south of some guidance with the 12z runs. Starting to get a nice consensus on a corridor of 9-15” from MO/IA up into the LOT CWA.


.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I didn’t see the 6z euro. Was it still amped? 12z running now. 

Saw someone post this graphic of it on twitter, but it cuts off at I-39. You can infer totals though.

46768406_2172145219667658_6001481764046897152_n.png?_nc_cat=109&_nc_ht=scontent-ort2-2.xx&oh=fb71fe474b62d822740b8ed82ac78c35&oe=5C6DEE6F

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z Ukie is pretty much a whiff for RFD. :lol:

Takes the low over IND, which is a green flag for Chicago, lakeshore thermal issues nonetheless. Hoping to squeeze out an inch here in IKK. Didn’t think that was going to be possible...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wide array of possibilities for CR as well. Most likely looks like an incredibly close miss to the southeast. I stand by my first call of 1-3” for my backyard. 2-4” at CR airport and 5-8” in IC.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just looking at pure timing and speed. Appears to snow on us for about 10 hours. If we average a half inch/hour = 5 inches.  Given ground temps are very warm it will struggle to accumulate in the begining  

If this was later in the season I'm all about the 8 to 12 amounts. but i just don't see it happening right now. Obviously I hope I'm wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at all these crazy totals and all... I'll settle for 3". That'd still be the most we've gotten all season and it'll be all white outside. Don't wanna overhype to early.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Haven't been paying attention to this as much due to other priorities, but I'll be damned if this setup on a synoptic scale doesn't remind me of GHD 2015. Quite a similar 500 mb evolution.

And yeah the 12z Euro is a crush job for Chicago and vicinity.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Malacka11 said:

Looking at all these crazy totals and all... I'll settle for 3". That'd still be the most we've gotten all season and it'll be all white outside. Don't wanna overhype to early.

I never thought I really had a shot with this, but on the off chance it came my way I had the not too lofty goal of doubling my largest even of 2".  For mby, anything >4" will be a big win.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Haven't been paying attention to this as much due to other priorities, but I'll be damned if this setup on a synoptic scale doesn't remind me of GHD 2015. Quite a similar 500 mb evolution.

And yeah the 12z Euro is a crush job for Chicago and vicinity.

Reminds me more of 12-11-00 which did much better west (OMA) all the way to DTX's zone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

12z Ukie is pretty much a whiff for RFD. :lol:

Takes the low over IND, which is a green flag for Chicago, lakeshore thermal issues nonetheless. Hoping to squeeze out an inch here in IKK. Didn’t think that was going to be possible...

We need road trip.  :drunk:

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, RogueWaves said:

Reminds me more of 12-11-00 which did much better west (OMA) all the way to DTX's zone

That one has some similarities as well, although I think that shortwave was a bit flatter. Something splitting down the middle with maybe a bit more weight on 2015.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Still think it’s overdone, but impressive to say the least 

C7170C5F-2E44-47E6-8592-A54B5C25F9FC.jpeg

Unreal. The range of solutions is giving even the best forecaster a run for their money. 

 

I’d hope that GRR and DTX put out at least a SWS or WSW this afternoon. You can always go to an advisory - but with tomorrow/tomorrow night being a big travel time, it would be wise.. especially if the Euro and like models happen to verify. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Surprised that with all the chatta about winds that S Lk Michigan isn't under a Storm Watch vs a Gale Watch.

It might get upgraded.  They (they as in LOT) are already forecasting 45 kt (and 18 foot waves) and just need 50 kt for a storm watch/warning.  

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×