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Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential


Malacka11
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Haven't viewed everything yet in the model runs but my gut feeling is this is going to dampen out a bit with time as it heads Northeast and occludes off and the 500mb wave gets perhaps a bit less impressive also.  With that said I think that the further South outliers may be on to something but perhaps not quite as far to the South as they are depicting.  There will still be some nice WAA and frontogenesic forcing to help with the precip rates, also will have a window of some good UVV as well.  Just not confident that higher amounts will completely pan out unless they are in isolated spots.  We'll see what Euro says here in a bit....  Wouldn't be shocked to see some tweaking of watches with the morning AFD's.  This is a nasty call to make for the folks on the hot seat in the morning.  

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Holy mackerel Euro... wow.  Well it is pretty much holding serve, although appears a hair further to the SE on track but negligible as best I can tell right now.  Impressive dynamics it brings together and just hammers Northern Illinois in particular.  Don't know if the storm will actually be that juicy but wow.  That is probably the most impressive storms potentially since GHD 2011.  

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Just now, RogueWaves said:

They've had several crap winters now in a row without a decent storm. I said this year they'd be due..

Nah they manage at least an 8-10” storm every year, even in down years. Which I’d argue none of the past have been, at least for the northern suburbs. Not that I care enough to argue about it. Just saying Chicago has much better luck than we do despite having only slightly better odds statistically. 

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1 minute ago, hlcater said:

Nah they manage at least an 8-10” storm every year, even in down years. Which I’d argue none of the past have been, at least for the northern suburbs. Not that I care enough to argue about it. Just saying Chicago has much better luck than we do despite having only slightly better odds statistically. 

The next best outcome when a storm doesn't slam you is that it slams somebody in the sub.  Better than the evil empire that includes NYC and BOS.  

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

The next best outcome when a storm doesn't slam you is that it slams somebody in the sub.  Better than the evil empire that includes NYC and BOS.  

That is true. But at least for me, Chicago and snow storms is like a grudge. I’d rather IWX or central Illinois got it, granted they were never in the cards with this particular storm.

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2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Nah they manage at least an 8-10” storm every year, even in down years. Which I’d argue none of the past have been, at least for the northern suburbs. Not that I care enough to argue about it. Just saying Chicago has much better luck than we do despite having only slightly better odds statistically. 

Not sure they did in 16-17, but yes, the S GL's region (and I share a lot of what hits Chicago-land) has been enjoying a great couple of decades in this century. Won't argue that.

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When do you all think precip will most likely start for the Chicago metro area? I know a bunch of people driving back to school then including me and definitely want to leave the area before this hits (driving down to Champaign). Been following this thread for a bit (as usual) and seems like it might be a big one that I will sadly miss out on.

 

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11 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I’ll take my 1-3” and treat it like a blizzard. Chicago doesn’t lose. Kinda sour not because I’m missing it but because Chicago wins.

Euro. 1-3 inches in linn county on this run? Does that mean we still get a couple inches in DSM too? If so, that means for central IA, euro ticked north. It had us at just about nothing at 12z. Given the curve of the system as it is depicted on models tunneling through southern IA, 1-3 inches in Haiwatha means 1-3 here

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The next best outcome when a storm doesn't slam you is that it slams somebody in the sub.  Better than the evil empire that includes NYC and BOS.  

And WAY better than a zzzz-fest pattern. I think it pained Bastardi a few days ago in his daily update to circle the midwest and WMI as a region likely to get slammed with a bliz

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Just now, ConvectiveIA said:

Euro. 1-3 inches in linn county on this run? Does that mean we still get a couple inches in DSM too? If so, that means for central IA, euro ticked north. It had us at just about nothing at 12z. Given the curve of the system as it is depicted on models tunneling through southern IA, 1-3 inches in Haiwatha means 1-3 here

Nah on the euro I don’t see any QPF. Neither does Des Moines. Ultimate screw you for CR/DMX/IC. 

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3 minutes ago, homedis said:

When do you all think precip will most likely start for the Chicago metro area? I know a bunch of people driving back to school then including me and definitely want to leave the area before this hits (driving down to Champaign). Been following this thread for a bit (as usual) and seems like it might be a big one that I will sadly miss out on.

 

Probably in the morning.  Conditions wouldn't really go downhill until afternoon though.

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2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Euro showing 50-60kts at 850mb Sunday evening over northern IL.  Wonder if there'll be some lake enhancement like what happened with the GHDI storm.  Verbatim the Euro would indicate some pretty tough conditions along the LM shorline not all too different than GHDI.  

Big difference is a much wetter snow this time.

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