Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Thought we'd see a little better agreement on the 00z models tonight.  GFS seems like an outlier, but it definitely shouldn't be discounted just yet.  It seems a bit odd that we're riding the northern edge on the Euro, and the southern edge on the GFS at 36hrs out.  Blending the two puts this area right in the middle though, so I'm feeling pretty confident for some of the heaviest snows right in the heart of the DVN cwa.  

Yeah I'd say you're looking good, whether or not you end up in the heaviest band.

[Kaner88]

21z SREF really trying to lock in a win for itself by covering all the bases, it would appear.

[Radtechwxman]

Weird that Canadian model definitely has a more southerly sfc low track compared to GFS however it's heavy snow swath looks very similar to GFS

[Hoosier]

I think/hope we will start clearing this up on the 12z cycle.  The 00z cycle had some RAOB sampling of the wave on the west coast, but 12z will be more complete.

[Radtechwxman]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think/hope we will start clearing this up on the 12z cycle.  The 00z cycle had some RAOB sampling of the wave on the west coast, but 12z will be more complete.

Couldn't agree more. What a nightmare for nws offices

[cyclone77]

That FV3 version of the GFS definitely has been consistent.  It never wavered while the op GFS went off on it's southeast outlier tangent.  Definitely is eye opening.  I'd say if the Euro doesn't bump back north on tonight's run I'd start to lean a little more against it.  The fact that the higher-res models are largely in agreement with the Euro and GEM is also interesting.  The 00z HRRR that goes out to 36hrs is definitely looking like it is in the southern camp.

My gut says the Euro corrected a bit too far southeast with last night and today's runs, and the GFS prob corrected a bit too far northwest.  Something in between is where it will probably end up IMO.

[Hoosier]

00z UKMET held, more or less.  A hair south if anything.

[Hoosier]

14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z UKMET held, more or less.  A hair south if anything.

Definitely a bit south

Here's 48 and 60 hours

[cyclone77]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Definitely a bit south

Here's 60 hours

Model madness! 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Good ole GFS vs everyone battle. 

[cyclone77]

2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Good ole GFS vs everyone battle. 

Don't know why but that made me think of this lol.

[hlcater]

I love and admire the consistency of the GFSs, but I’ve gotta go with consensus. Massive coup if the gfs pulls through, but I don’t see it unfortunately. 

[CoalCityWxMan]

I have a hunch the GFS will cave and come south, atleast a little by 12z. Looking closely at the GEFS snow accum. mean, it did bump south ever so slightly. 

[Hoosier]

Looking closely at the RGEM, there is a spot in northern IL where the scale is maxed.  6 mm in 1 hr.

[ConvectiveIA]

As I reca the GFS-FV3 was not available until this year, at least not on pivotal. Does this make it a more advanced and higher tech model?

[homedis]

Having an issue currently trying to figure out flight times for my sister who is flying from ORD to DSM Sunday. The flight was originally leaving 9pm this Sunday but today we changed it to leave ORD at 9am Sunday. Not sure what to do at this point because it looks like either way might be bad.

 

[cyclone77]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Looking closely at the RGEM, there is a spot in northern IL where the scale is maxed.  6 mm in 1 hr.

0.24"/hr, not bad.  

[cyclone77]

1 minute ago, ConvectiveIA said:

As I reca the GFS-FV3 was not available until this year, at least not on pivotal. Does this make it a more advanced and higher tech model?

It will def get my vote if it ends up scoring the coup lol.

[hlcater]

Cyclone is sitting pretty for this.

[SchaumburgStormer]

3 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said:

As I reca the GFS-FV3 was not available until this year, at least not on pivotal. Does this make it a more advanced and higher tech model?

I know it is using the newer tech and running side by side to identify biases, but no idea in terms of verification. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Don't know why but that made me think of this lol.

Hahaha. Been awhile since I have seen that one. 

[ConvectiveIA]

Ladies and gentlemen the real question we have to ask ourself, is Why. Why did the GFS place itself as an extreme southerly outlier yesterday, and then take a polar opposite and become an extreme northwesterly outlier? Why did the other models do a flip flop meanwhile? Why?

[RogueWaves]

What time does the EC run?

[cyclone77]

2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Cyclone is sitting pretty for this.

Blending all the guidance together it certainly looks that way.  If the FV3 were to work out we'll be more on the southeastern edge, but we would still probably have a little fun on the tail-end with some snow and wind.  If that FV3 scenario works out you guys up there in CR/IC will have a very nice storm.  The amped nature of that further northwest track really cranks out heavy snowfall totals.  That would really max out the potential of this system compared to the slightly less amped/further southeast versions on other guidance.

[Radtechwxman]

2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Blending all the guidance together it certainly looks that way.  If the FV3 were to work out we'll be more on the southeastern edge, but we would still probably have a little fun on the tail-end with some snow and wind.  If that FV3 scenario works out you guys up there in CR/IC will have a very nice storm.  The amped nature of that further northwest track really cranks out heavy snowfall totals.  That would really max out the potential of this system compared to the slightly less amped/further southeast versions on other guidance.

I'm still rooting for weaker and south. Ha. But am amped up northern solution wouldn't shock me at all. Would be nice to see that amped up solution but further south

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Blending all the guidance together it certainly looks that way.  If the FV3 were to work out we'll be more on the southeastern edge, but we would still probably have a little fun on the tail-end with some snow and wind.  If that FV3 scenario works out you guys up there in CR/IC will have a very nice storm.  The amped nature of that further northwest track really cranks out heavy snowfall totals.  That would really max out the potential of this system compared to the slightly less amped/further southeast versions on other guidance.

You're even pretty good on the Ukie

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

What time does the EC run?

Will start in just under 30 mins.

[Thundersnow12]

Nearly all of the 0z GEFS members are south of the op...

[cyclone77]

We have a new southern outlier.  The new WRF-NMM says Quincy to Kankakee is the place to be lol.

[Roger Smith]

Differences in latitude of snow swath may be partly a signal of model rates of cooling of near-track boundary layers because I think this system is the kind that goes moderate rain to sleet to heavy wet snow along its track, warm sector never very robust and falls apart rapidly after 00z 27th, so it may not be only an issue of low track but this mixing and phase change recognition. And I think the actual outcome may be south of most guidance as a result.