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Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential


Malacka11
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10 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Heres GRR thoughts on opting out of a warning locally. 

I still think it’s warranted, especially with what’s headed this way downstream.

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I count 4 or 5 legit factors pointing towards needing a warning (not to mention the criteria being straight up hit in some spots) and 1 factor that GRR has invented arguing against it.  This coming from the office that started the push to get rid of LES products several years ago because of how "confusing" they were ( :rolleyes:) to all of the people who use their products.  Oh well.  This is a hell of a storm so hopefully those getting hit can enjoy it.  Chicago has done well with big dogs trending to them this decade, though the warm lake will hurt downtown on this one. 

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8 minutes ago, ohwxguy said:

Rain now mixing with snow in Uptown in Chicago (2 blocks from Foster & Lake Shore Drive). Certainly no accumulation yet, but the timing of the changeover to mixed precip lines up with the anticipated timeframe. Now we’ll see if it’s over to all snow around 9 pm.

Happy to hear changeover is occurring for you. I’m down on Columbus and Randolph, so imagine it’ll be another hour or so before we start seeing the first flakes fly. Hoping for a full changeover by 10 or 11.

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6 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I count 4 or 5 legit factors pointing towards needing a warning (not to mention the criteria being straight up hit in some spots) and 1 factor that GRR has invented arguing against it.  This coming from the office that started the push to get rid of LES products several years ago because of how "confusing" they were ( :rolleyes:) to all of the people who use their products.  Oh well.  This is a hell of a storm so hopefully those getting hit can enjoy it.  Chicago has done well with big dogs trending to them this decade, though the warm lake will hurt downtown on this one. 

Honestly I feel like they issued a WWA and don't want to look conflicted by going to WSW especially when they could have waited a forecast cycle. Guaranteed if they had the watch up until this morning or afternoon they'd gone warning.

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IMO, the real reason GRR won't go with a warning is because they fear the backlash (being accused of overhype) if they hedge their bets on the model guidance and the totals end up falling short. In all fairness, it is still a marginal set up for their CBD.

I know, it seems silly, but that's the only logical explanation I can come up with (versus the one they gave).

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Confirmed transition here in eastern Dupage past hr or so. Woke up from a nap around 6 expecting everything to be plastered, but it was all rain. 

Now over 1/2” on the ground. A friend just called that’s currently out east 20mins from here towards the city asked when the snow is going to start lol. 

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8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Honestly I feel like they issued a WWA and don't want to look conflicted by going to WSW especially when they could have waited a forecast cycle. Guaranteed if they had the watch up until this morning or afternoon they'd gone warning.

I was a little out of the loop Friday and Saturday so I can't comment specifically on how the forecast played out for their CWA, but it seems odd for them to come up with the reason they gave to not issue a warning when they have criteria amounts in their forecast...certainly a higher impact with a wetter snow, gusty winds, and rush hour timing too.  I can see roadways not being covered in deep snow, but it'll still be quite slick when it comes down with visibility issues and probably some downed limbs and such too with the wet snow and gusty winds. 

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2 minutes ago, Castaway said:

Confirmed transition here in eastern Dupage past hr or so. Woke up from a nap around 6 expecting everything to be plastered, but it was all rain. 

Now over 1/2” on the ground. A friend just called that’s currently out east 20mins from here towards the city asked when the snow is going to start lol. 

Yeah it took a long while to transition. Hopefully it didn't cut into our totals too much

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6 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I was a little out of the loop Friday and Saturday so I can't comment specifically on how the forecast played out for their CWA, but it seems odd for them to come up with the reason they gave to not issue a warning when they have criteria amounts in their forecast...certainly a higher impact with a wetter snow, gusty winds, and rush hour timing too.  I can see roadways not being covered in deep snow, but it'll still be quite slick when it comes down with visibility issues and probably some downed limbs and such too with the wet snow and gusty winds. 

That’s just it, I’ve always been under the notion that a warning was 5” or more within 12 hours or potentially life threatening winter like conditions (e.g. low temps, blowing snow, high winds/deadly windchills). 

 

 

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1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

3-4 or so. I will head out around 9 to measure and clear the board. 

I just unofficially measured 4.9”, but I’d give or take a few tenths with the wind. Roads look terrible (as I’m sure you’re aware) and there were a few cars stuck/tires spinning and there’s like 4” of snow/slush/ice covering Annie Glidden 

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If all goes as planned this will be the greatest November snowfall in my lifetime. The 1975 storm at Thanksgiving melted in a day. Remember it vividly and I was in 8th grade. The weather addiction stuff starts early...odd affliction.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

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