Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential


Malacka11
 Share

Recommended Posts

It's not real but notice how the HRRR keeps the IL river valley around PIA a tad warmer then the surrounding area...this cuts into the snow amounts 

this seems to corresponds where the larger bodies of water of the IL river widen into "lakes"

 

It has happened in that model before when temps are borderline

 

The snow min over downtown PIA is "lower peoria lake" .  the larger one just above that is "upper peoria lake" and another  in Putnam county up north is "senachwine lake"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Steady moderate rain falling right now.  Can actually hear it on the roof.  DVN CC showing the melting layer not too far aloft, with it getting pretty close to the surface in that east/west enhanced band near the QC.  I'm upping my call for here/QC to 12-14".  Going to be quite difficult to measure with the winds later on today/this eve.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

It's not real but notice how the HRRR keeps the IL river valley around PIA a tad warmer then the surrounding area...this cuts into the snow amounts 

this seems to corresponds where the larger bodies of water of the IL river widen into "lakes"

 

It has happened in that model before

The HRRR has problems with freshwater lakes. Too cold in the summer, too warm in the winter. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Steady moderate rain falling right now.  Can actually hear it on the roof.  DVN CC showing the melting layer not too far aloft, with it getting pretty close to the surface in that east/west enhanced band near the QC.  I'm upping my call for here/QC to 12-14".  Going to be quite difficult to measure with the winds later on today/this eve.

This is going to be epic, especially for you guys. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah this is going to be a blast.  Already has been with the tracking, etc.  You guys look very good to me.  

Several ob sites in south-central and southwest IA reporting 1/8 mile visibility.  

 

3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah this is going to be a blast.  Already has been with the tracking, etc.  You guys look very good to me.  

Several ob sites in south-central and southwest IA reporting 1/8 mile visibility.  

but I hate when fgen precp is wasted as rain :(

because of the intense band you may turn over before MLI airport..I think they are to far south at first

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, janetjanet998 said:

 

but I hate when fgen precp is wasted as rain :(

because of the intense band you may turn over before MLI airport..I think they are to far south at first

Temps are slowly dropping, but still at 36. Real miserable outside with moderate rain, cold temps, and wind. 

HRRR showing changeover here in a few hours. Difference between awesome and epic will be if i get under the FGEN band at switchover. It’s going to park somewhere in the vicinity, models showing anywhere within a 10-20 mile spread over my head. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Temps are slowly dropping, but still at 36. Real miserable outside with moderate rain, cold temps, and wind. 

HRRR showing changeover here in a few hours. Difference between awesome and epic will be if i get under the FGEN band at switchover. It’s going to park somewhere in the vicinity, models showing anywhere within a 10-20 mile spread over my head. 

The hrrr has been fluncuating back and forth, wouldn’t doubt it sets up right along 88 though just looking at trends. Whoever gets under it will get a nice head start 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

 

but I hate when fgen precp is wasted as rain :(

because of the intense band you may turn over before MLI airport..I think they are to far south at first

 

I hear that lol.  Yeah it's raining almost heavily now with a temp of 35.  Weather station crapped out a few weeks ago, so I don't know how much rain has fallen, but guessing a good 1/4".  If you look closely there's some partially melted flakes coming down with the rain, so the changeover isn't too far away.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

I hear that lol.  Yeah it's raining almost heavily now with a temp of 35.  Weather station crapped out a few weeks ago, so I don't know how much rain has fallen, but guessing a good 1/4".  If you look closely there's some partially melted flakes coming down with the rain, so the changeover isn't too far away.  

 

Enjoy your storm cyclone. Better put your amazing photography skills to use too. Have fun I’m super jealous. 50 and rain here with some back end flurries in the morning. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

If we’ve shifted to hi-res model watching, the newest HRDPS still continues to spit out ridiculous numbers for both snowfall and precip.

F41A1536-CA40-4705-AF6F-FB26236173C8.png

86C54B14-A072-4361-BAE1-ECC121CE2966.png

It's feeling like either I'm gonna get 2 inches or 8 inches.

 

Air temp is 38 now according to the NWS. Gonna go outside in about 40 mins and experience it for myself. Come on weather, get cold!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That east/west fronto band is looking like it's going to stall and flat out dump where it stalls in the next several hours.  Looks like from about Iowa City to Clinton, and over towards Rochelle could really see it pile up underneath that.  I'm kind of torn, as I would love to get in on that, but to be in on that means you'd be a bit too far north/northwest to get in on the very heavy snows later today/this evening.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, cyclone77 said:

That east/west fronto band is looking like it's going to stall and flat out dump where it stalls in the next several hours.  Looks like from about Iowa City to Clinton, and over towards Rochelle could really see it pile up underneath that.  I'm kind of torn, as I would love to get in on that, but to be in on that means you'd be a bit too far north/northwest to get in on the very heavy snows later today/this evening.   

I'm facing the same dillema. I'm sitting south of Eldridge at my parents house and its pouring rain here. This band is just sitting here, but I also want to blast south back toward home and get into the deformation band later on with those 50+ mph winds lol. Ugh. I still think the cities sees a foot out of this but someone somewhere is going to pick up 15 inches imo.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, ILwxchr said:

I'm facing the same dillema. I'm sitting south of Eldridge at my parents house and its pouring rain here. This band is just sitting here, but I also want to blast south back toward home and get into the deformation band later on with those 50+ mph winds lol. Ugh. I still think the cities sees a foot out of this but someone somewhere is going to pick up 15 inches imo.

Yeah definitely a tough choice.  I think it comes down to what you want most, the best rates or the best blizzard conditions.  That fronto band could really crank out some insane rates, which would be very fun.  An all-out blizzard is tough to beat though, and the rates will still be very nice in the midst of that.  Either way you can't lose lol. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, cyclone77 said:

Yeah definitely a tough choice.  I think it comes down to what you want most, the best rates or the best blizzard conditions.  That fronto band could really crank out some insane rates, which would be very fun.  An all-out blizzard is tough to beat though, and the rates will still be very nice in the midst of that.  Either way you can't lose lol. 

True. I'm greedy and want both haha :rolleyes:. But if I had to choose, I'd choose the all-out blizzard conditions. I'm a huge wind fan.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah definitely a tough choice.  I think it comes down to what you want most, the best rates or the best blizzard conditions.  That fronto band could really crank out some insane rates, which would be very fun.  An all-out blizzard is tough to beat though, and the rates will still be very nice in the midst of that.  Either way you can't lose lol. 

As a winter lover, you go years without a chance to really see either one. What a storm for late November 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

If we’ve shifted to hi-res model watching, the newest HRDPS still continues to spit out ridiculous numbers for both snowfall and precip.

F41A1536-CA40-4705-AF6F-FB26236173C8.png

86C54B14-A072-4361-BAE1-ECC121CE2966.png

Of note too is that, in IL, these very high modeled snow amounts all occur after 12 pm today. So, the current mixed precipitation and/or rain is not a surprise, at least per this model run. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...