Thundersnow12 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Really starting to get some GHD I vibes with how tomorrow evening is starting to look, more so on the CAM's.. Getting nice signal now for convection to develop across central Illinois in the mid-level dry slot in conjuction with daytime heating and some SBCAPE down there as the mid-level height falls spread over that region, steepening the mid-level lapse rates with the colder temperatures under the H5 cold pocket. That convection then flies north on the wings of the 50-60kt flow off the deck in the warm conveyor belt and turn NW and curls into the CCB. Timing may be a bit earlier but location is fairly reminiscent of GHD I and this sort of scenario led to lots of TSSN that evening across north central and northeast Illinois. Will be interesting to see more HRRR runs overnight and tomorrow and how they handle this. I think the chances at TSSN are quite good tomorrow evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Thundersnow12 said: Really starting to get some GHD I vibes with how tomorrow evening is starting to look, more so on the CAM's.. Getting nice signal now for convection to develop across central Illinois in the mid-level dry slot in conjuction with daytime heating and some SBCAPE down there as the mid-level height falls spread over that region, steepening the mid-level lapse rates with the colder temperatures under the H5 cold pocket. That convection then flies north on the wings of the 50-60kt flow off the deck in the warm conveyor belt and turn NW and curls into the CCB. Timing may be a bit earlier but location is fairly reminiscent of GHD I and this sort of scenario led to lots of TSSN that evening across north central and northeast Illinois. Will be interesting to see more HRRR runs overnight and tomorrow and how they handle this. I think the chances at TSSN are quite good tomorrow evening. Definitely interested in that and if it can drag the rain/snow line south/east a little faster than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Really starting to get some GHD I vibes with how tomorrow evening is starting to look, more so on the CAM's.. Getting nice signal now for convection to develop across central Illinois in the mid-level dry slot in conjuction with daytime heating and some SBCAPE down there as the mid-level height falls spread over that region, steepening the mid-level lapse rates with the colder temperatures under the H5 cold pocket. That convection then flies north on the wings of the 50-60kt flow off the deck in the warm conveyor belt and turn NW and curls into the CCB. Timing may be a bit earlier but location is fairly reminiscent of GHD I and this sort of scenario led to lots of TSSN that evening across north central and northeast Illinois. Will be interesting to see more HRRR runs overnight and tomorrow and how they handle this. I think the chances at TSSN are quite good tomorrow evening. Hope you get to see some thundersnow man. This certainly looks like a setup that should put out. Wonder if Cantore will head into Chicago for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Anybody still watching the Euro? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Anybody still watching the Euro? Come to Papa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Can you post the map further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Definitely gets the better snows a bit farther north this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: Definitely gets the better snows a bit farther north this run. Like the theme of the night, the precip field has expanded on the north end while carrying the southern end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Can you post the map further south? If we actually get the full 7 inches here the Euro is saying, I'll eat my hat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: If we actually get the full 7 inches here the Euro is saying, I'll eat my hat. Kuchera is more juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 New Euro probably the most conservative for this area on tonight's runs, and still delivers 12-13" (assuming 10:1 LSR). Don't ever want to kick back and relax and say it's a slam dunk, but at this point there's really nothing negative I can say about very heavy snow prospects for the QCA. 8-12" with isolated higher amounts is probably what I would put out for a forecast, but I think most of the area will be on the higher end of that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Consistency of the Euro for several model cycles is enough for me to give it more weight than the other op models in not being too concerned about some of our warning counties not verifying. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: If we actually get the full 7 inches here the Euro is saying, I'll eat my hat. It's been consistent in dropping that six inch snow across the northern tier of Indiana counties for several runs now. My money is on 2-4 across the northern IWX CWA considering this and what short range models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: For comparison, here is the 18z run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: If we actually get the full 7 inches here the Euro is saying, I'll eat my hat. It's 10:1 but most models at 0z have 6-10 across SWMI. Only GFS is a near miss with the 6+ line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Consistency of the Euro for several model cycles is enough for me to give it more weight than the other op models in not being too concerned about some of our warning counties not verifying. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Hey, do you know where to get a good map of current lake water temps? I have seen a few but they seem to be inconsistent with each other. One of the maps I saw still had an area of 50 degree water temps to the south of the south mid lake buoy, but I'm not sure if it's legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: For comparison, here is the 18z run: A tiny bit of a South expansion out this way, not a lot but a half county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Hey, do you know where to get a good map of current lake water temps? I have seen a few but they seem to be inconsistent with each other. One of the maps I saw still had an area of 50 degree water temps to the south of the south mid lake buoy, but I'm not sure if it's legit. http://www.coastwatch.msu.edu/ This what I have used but I don't know how accurate it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Hey, do you know where to get a good map of current lake water temps? I have seen a few but they seem to be inconsistent with each other. One of the maps I saw still had an area of 50 degree water temps to the south of the south mid lake buoy, but I'm not sure if it's legit. Www.coastwatch.msu.edu/twomichigans.htmlSent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Well the snowfall map of the Euro gave a nudge to the north in to the prettier colors. Does it have one more nudge to a half a foot longer in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Another model (WRF-ARW2) that has just come in has over 2" of precip as mostly all snow. The 10:1 snow map shows 26" near the Mississippi river. Yeah, likely overdone but geez. In all my years of tracking storms I've never seen such juiced up model QPF this close to the event, and from so many different models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 This thread misses, Alek. Hopefully he hits the beach with his dog during some thunder snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Don't know how accurate it is but the 00z Euro on weather.us starting to show lightning up into N. Central Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 7 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Don't know how accurate it is but the 00z Euro on weather.us starting to show lightning up into N. Central Illinois. How did you see lightning on there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: How did you see lightning on there? Under severe weather parameters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just comparing the HRRR run at hr 10 for 06z, there is a definite trend through the day of the low coming into MO further south. Also I would like to note KC is expanded their blizzard warnings south to cover the Metro. Too bad the Chiefs don't play this week at home, would be fun game to watch. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 I guess this happened like 3 hours ago but Kansas City metro added to Blizzard Warnings. Mentioning only because it is a major metro area. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 947 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018 ...Blizzard Conditions and Very Dangerous Travel Expected Sunday... .A very strong storm system will track across the region from early Sunday morning through Sunday evening. Rain will quickly change to snow with snow rates across northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas exceeding one inch per hour at times Sunday. The heaviest snow is expected to be north of I-70, where 5 to 9 inches of snow is expected, with localized heavier amounts possible. Along and south of I-70 lower snow totals in the 1 to 5 inches are expected, with the lower amounts south of Route 50. The powerful storm will also produce very strong winds with gusts to around 45 mph at times. The combination of heavy snow and strong winds will lead to white out conditions and very dangerous travel on area roadways. As a result, travel across the region on Sunday is highly discouraged. KSZ103>105-MOZ028>030-037-038-251200- /O.UPG.KEAX.WW.Y.0018.181125T1200Z-181126T0000Z/ /O.EXB.KEAX.BZ.W.0001.181125T1500Z-181126T0300Z/ Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-Platte-Clay-Ray-Jackson- Lafayette- Including the cities of Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth, Lansing, Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe, Shawnee, Lenexa, Parkville, Platte City, Riverside, Weatherby Lake, Weston, Gladstone, Liberty, Excelsior Springs, Richmond, Lawson, Kansas City, Independence, Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington, and Concordia 947 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and west central Missouri. * WHEN...From 9 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: Just comparing the HRRR run at hr 10 for 06z, there is a definite trend through the day of the low coming into MO further south. Also I would like to note KC is expanded their blizzard warnings south to cover the Metro. Too bad the Chiefs don't play this week at home, would be fun game to watch. You beat me to the KC Blizzard Warning by 3 minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 HRRR has me feeling cautiously optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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