Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 This is still more generous on the northern end than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 The 0z HRRR is a great look for Cyclone. Also, it does seem to push back the onset of precipitation around here which could make for a very bad Monday morning rush hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Here's a ptype map with a better color scheme valid at the same time as that other one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, nwburbschaser said: The 0z HRRR is a great look for Cyclone. Also, it does seem to push back the onset of precipitation around here which could make for a very bad Monday morning rush hour. Still hanging on at 12z. Maybe even a little lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 HRRR much more realistic representation of the evolution across MI too as the low slides south of here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, Stebo said: HRRR much more realistic representation of the evolution across MI too as the low slides south of here. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Still hanging on at 12z. Maybe even a little lake enhancement. I would take this and be a happy camper. Shows about 4 inches down in SBN with a (what appears to be) lake-enhanced band to go as of 12z Monday. Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Seems like we have a stronger, slower solution showing up now. Definitely a notable slowing trend. Currently our low is 993mb in far SW Kansas. Strongest pressure falls occurring across the KS-OK border and spilling into OK. Seems like it should keep a mostly east course. Where it starts turning more ne will be critical to areas further east (central IL, Chicago) changing over sooner or later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 00z 12km NAM bumped NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, IllinoisWedges said: 00z 12km NAM bumped NW. And is also unrealistically juiced. 25.3” for Iowa City with 3”/hr rates. Sorry NAM, not happening. I foresee 12-15” in the heaviest axis of snow, but not nearly 25. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, IllinoisWedges said: 00z 12km NAM bumped NW. Then goes more easterly out this way so it is actually S out this way and more Euro/HRRR like. Good signs out this way for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 As a matter of fact another bump or two south and it might be more snow than rain here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 NAM and more so the Nest are an absolute train wreck across the Chicago metro area, as well as being slower. Cut off on the SE side ends up being further NW, and the NAM has a 10" spread from GYY to extreme northwest Cook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: NAM and more so the Nest are an absolute train wreck across the Chicago metro area, as well as being slower. Cut off on the SE side ends up being further NW, and the NAM has a 10" spread from GYY to extreme northwest Cook Off topic but why is the 6k NAM called the NAM NEST? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 The cutoff for this is pretty unreal. Has warning criteria in nw portion of my county and nothing se. I'm like in the middle. Lol. This is going to be a nail biter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 The snow totals from the 0z NAM (12k and 3k) are ridiculous. Realistically, those totals should be sliced in half. Also, nasty winds in southeast Iowa according to the 0z NAM, blizzard warning criteria. Could get a few inches from this event, although the 0z NAM run shows extreme NW Linn County getting nada. The only storm capable of producing 25+ inches of snow in the span of several hours is from a powerful NorEaster (such as 2/8/2013 in northeastern New England). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Off topic but why is the 6k NAM called the NAM NEST? It's not. It's the 3km NAM (Nest) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, Thundersnow12 said: It's not. It's the 3km NAM (Nest) My bad lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 The storm is starting to get going now in Nebraska and South Dakota. There are some bursts of convective snow around Rapid City right now, but it doesn't relate much to the GL/OV forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 If these last hour shifts prove true, congrats to those that get snow that didn’t think they’d get as recently as the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 819 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018 .UPDATE... 819 PM CST Have issued a lake shore warning for Cook County IL as well as Lake and Porter Counties in Indiana for Sunday night into Monday morning. Lake levels remain nearly 3 feet above chart datum and around 1 foot higher than the Halloween storm of 2014 which flooded north bound lanes of Lake Shore Dr in Chicago. Tough to say just how bad the lake shore flooding will get, comparing this set-up to the Oct 2014 event, this event has a more favorable wind direction and higher lake levels, but the fetch of the strongest winds will be shorter and the duration of the high winds will be less. Given the expectation of near storm force onshore winds Sunday night, there is definitely a potential for flooding making it to Lake Shore Dr, so have opted to with a warning rather than an advisory. Other than to increase winds slightly Sunday night, especially near the lake, no changes were made to the forecast for the winter storm. - Izzi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 10 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: The cutoff for this is pretty unreal. Has warning criteria in nw portion of my county and nothing se. I'm like in the middle. Lol. This is going to be a nail biter I've thrown my hands up at guessing for Des Moines with this extreme cutoff. 2" or 20"? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jonbo said: I've thrown my hands up at guessing for Des Moines with this extreme cutoff. 2" or 20"? At least the 01z hrrr is coming in looking ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 819 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018 .UPDATE... 819 PM CST Have issued a lake shore warning for Cook County IL as well as Lake and Porter Counties in Indiana for Sunday night into Monday morning. Lake levels remain nearly 3 feet above chart datum and around 1 foot higher than the Halloween storm of 2014 which flooded north bound lanes of Lake Shore Dr in Chicago. Tough to say just how bad the lake shore flooding will get, comparing this set-up to the Oct 2014 event, this event has a more favorable wind direction and higher lake levels, but the fetch of the strongest winds will be shorter and the duration of the high winds will be less. Given the expectation of near storm force onshore winds Sunday night, there is definitely a potential for flooding making it to Lake Shore Dr, so have opted to with a warning rather than an advisory. Other than to increase winds slightly Sunday night, especially near the lake, no changes were made to the forecast for the winter storm. - Izzi What the heck kind of update is that?? Give us a little more. I guess it's s good thing though 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 50 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: That would be some mix. Sleet, snow. Not solid snow. Esp given where it tracks the low near I72. One thing I have noticed, even with HRRR, is that it tends to miss how rapid dynamic cooling can take place. Changeover could be quicker than it shows. Do you think the low will track that north? My gut has always been on I70 Sleet will be the buzkill for sure. A few hours of sleet instead of snow can cut those totals in half 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Don't bite the hand that feeds you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Sleet will be the buzkill for sure. A few hours of sleet instead of snow can cut those totals in half This setup isn't too favorable for sleet, it would be rain to snow for those who get rain. If someone gets sleet it will be for only a limited time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 10 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: What the heck kind of update is that?? Give us a little more. I guess it's s good thing though The correct response is, "Thank you Izzi at LOT for the between AFDs update." 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, IWXwx said: The correct response is, "Thank you Izzi at LOT for the between AFDs update." Sorry Izzi.. Thanks for the between AFDs update. Keep making the snow God's happy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Omega, you said? Northern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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