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Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential


Malacka11
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2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Don't think I've ever heard of a 4-10 inch spread before. It's lookin up boys

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
144 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018

ILZ003>005-008-010>012-250345-
/O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0004.181125T1200Z-181126T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0003.181125T1200Z-181126T0600Z/
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Ogle-Lee-DeKalb-Kane-
Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Woodstock, Oregon,
Dixon, DeKalb, Aurora, and Elgin
144 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Blowing snow possible, especially
  at night. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 10 inches, with
  localized amounts up to 12 inches, are expected.

 

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18z looks terrible for dsm showing the system literally ducking under the city to go around it. My hope is that the system can somehow deepen and do something that causes it to head a little more due east then pummel Chicago with snow on its way out. I just don’t understand how it can do the limbo right under Des Moines 

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I think that one-storm two-day record from 1895 could fall with this one, 12-14" potential. Will say 11.5" ORD narrow miss on the record (as quoted earlier in the thread). GRR should probably double their call. Would go 9 inches there. DTW about 4 inches, will start as rain but gradually change over. Any place this starts as rain with east to northeast wind and 38-40 F temp will quickly change over and go all heavy snow. Where it starts at about 45 F southeast wind, could take longer but many places will lose their access to warm sector as the low rapidly occludes and snow surrounds the center. It is operating from Pacific moisture, Gulf inflow will be limited (dew points in current warm sector in 30s). Strong dynamics are the reason for the heavy precip more than Gulf moisture. The pivot south of DSM is plausible, would not be saying much more than 2" there, trending to 10" at IA-MO state border. 

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Personally, I know I was all about not getting my hopes up early but it's really hard not to. Sitting here in southern Dupage with at least six inches of snow would be pretty cool, and that's if the more northern solutions come to fruition. All it takes is a small bump South to get a nice bonus (if the insanity the models depict in north central IL is even possible). 

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3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Well I never really been in the heart of this. Always been on edge. So any north shifts and I'm out of it. Euro has been the only one hammering my area but seems to be on it's own. Really need that low to track along or preferably south of I70

Same here in South Bend/Mishawaka. Euro is the only model at the moment giving me more than a 1/2 inch of slush. But because it's the Euro and because it consistently gives me about 6 inches of snow I'm hanging on until the bitter end. As has been said many times already, at least it's only November!

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It is weather like this that makes me glad I work from home. All the same, not totally prepared for this either.  Got salt, and shovels, but this is going to be "heart attack snow" from the looks of it, so clearing driveways is going to be decidedly un-fun.  

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No Blizzard Warning on this package from DVN. I imagine they are waiting on more data and the possibility exists for that to occur overnight. Seems as though the heavy snow axis to me will be from about Mount Pleasant, Iowa to Princeton, IL to perhaps De Kalb/Aurora area, somewhere within 50 miles or so of that line. That would be my guess. As for my backyard right now, Galesburg, I'm expecting roughly 6-8 inches. If it shifts further south or if the HRRR, NAM, RGEM are correct, that could be too low of a forecast. But i've learned over the years to forecast low versus high lol.

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