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Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential


Malacka11
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Just now, Hoosier said:

I'm not exaggerating when I say that the Euro would present one of the toughest/highest bust potential forecasts ever for the city of Chicago. How much you would forecast close to the lake/downtown is really challenging.

Yeah, this is NOVEMBER for crying out loud. Even in the Northland, late Nov storms will rain along the W coast of Lk Huron. Places like Alpena and Oscoda get totally screwed on these early season specials.

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm not exaggerating when I say that the Euro would present one of the toughest/highest bust potential forecasts ever for the city of Chicago. How much you would forecast close to the lake/downtown is really challenging.

Yeah that's definitely going to be a challenge in the next 12-18hrs.  First step is to issue watches to the southeast of where they currently are.  Then hopefully the high-res guidance and additional GFS/Euro runs will help pin things down by early tomorrow afternoon.

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4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Yeah, this is NOVEMBER for crying out loud. Even in the Northland, late Nov storms will rain along the W coast of Lk Huron. Places like Alpena and Oscoda get totally screwed on these early season specials.

The 2015 storm has been talked about, but a better comparison just from a wind perspective of the wind howling off the lake in a late November snow setup may be the 11/24/2004 storm.  Chicago proper got screwed in that storm, but I think lake temps were a bit warmer than they are now.

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1 minute ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

This would be a complete holiday travel disaster. If the euro or any of the stronger solutions panned out many roads would be impossible to drive on, and the airports would be a mess. 

Well, adjusting for seasonal month of November, these maps need to be taken with a grain of salt. Having said that, it should be interesting for sure!

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Switched a flight from Sunday to Monday this morning after United waived the change fee due to this system, if the Euro pans out Monday won't be good enough. 

Oh well, what's better than heavy, wet snow on one of the busiest travel days of the year? /s

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4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

That's a drastic shift from the 0z run a few hours ago. Wouldn't buy it. Waiting on 12z runs with fresh data and a full sampling

Interestingly enough, the 06z runs last night were when we saw the massive shift back north after coming south all day on Thursday.

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My office added Kane and Lake to the watch. Having been at the office I can say there was a friendly discussion on whether to include Cook and DuPage and LaSalle. I personally would've included those counties in the watch with the support of some of the models and it being so close to the event and the major travel impacts likely, despite our official amounts being below warning criteria of 6"+.

 

There's certainly very high bust potential, especially in the city of Chicago, particularly near the lake with strong winds from the lake. Have to think the Euro is overdone because it's just so extreme but the more tame previous few runs would still be high impact.

 

DVN is going with a warning, ILX and MKX staying with watch. We'll see how this all goes later today. What an incredibly challenging forecast, likely owing to the complex evolution of the parent wave and ULL and degree of phasing and where it occurs.

 

Edit: We did end up going with LaSalle County in the watch, decision was probably helped by DVN going warning to Bureau County.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

My office added Kane and Lake to the watch. Having been at the office I can say there was a friendly discussion on whether to include Cook and DuPage and LaSalle. I personally would've included those counties in the watch with the support of some of the models and it being so close to the event and the major travel impacts likely, despite our official amounts being below warning criteria of 6"+.

 

There's certainly very high bust potential, especially in the city of Chicago, particularly near the lake with strong winds from the lake. Have to think the Euro is overdone because it's just so extreme but the more tame previous few runs would still be high impact.

 

DVN is going with a warning, ILX and MKX staying with watch. We'll see how this all goes later today. What an incredibly challenging forecast, likely owing to the complex evolution of the parent wave and ULL and degree of phasing and where it occurs.

 

 

 

 

You need >50% confidence to issue a watch, right?  I may be off so correct me if I'm wrong.  

Could certainly make a case for issuing a watch for that trio of counties.  In any event, hopefully it is communicated that this has a chance to be highly disruptive even outside of the current watch area.

Btw, some sick wind fields on the 6z RGEM haha

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1 hour ago, Powerball said:

This upcoming system looks interesting. It actually seems like it could be a hybrid of 12/11/00 and 12/1/06, IMO

I was in town all week for the holiday, but will be leaving tonight. I will admit though, part of me will be jealous if a EURO-like solution happens.

 

Flying into Chicago on Sunday mid-morning. I plan to beat the changeover. Will be in town all week next week. This is going to be a big storm for those that get under that death-band and plenty of cold to follow.

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You need >50% confidence to issue a watch, right?  I may be off so correct me if I'm wrong.  
Could certainly make a case for issuing a watch for that trio of counties.  In any event, hopefully it is communicated that this has a chance to be highly disruptive even outside of the current watch area.
Btw, some sick wind fields on the 6z RGEM haha
It's >50% confidence in attaining local warning criteria within the county. I'm not a huge fan of lowering headline issuance criteria too much but I think it's close enough to justify it in this case. The winds look to be a major issue combined with the heavy wet snow and even if lakeside Chicago struggles to accumulate, winds straight of frictionless could be strong enough to cause wind damage. Also lakeshore flooding a significant concern.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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While not as big of a story as what LOT has to deal with, the spread for Des Moines metro I’d rather insane. The GFS basically bullseyes DSM, the euro has about 1” of snow, and the NAMs have a very sharp gradient essentially through the metro. Can’t imagine any of those folks are having fun.

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