ILSNOW Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 12z GEFS mean 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Should have a little bet better handling this evening with ROAB sampling. Models are still all over the place. Euro has accumulating snow (heaviest) in NRN Illinois/Indiana/Ohio while GFS has the heaviest 200+ miles to the north near Kalkaska, Michigan. That’s quite the discrepancy being roughly 48 hours from the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 One thing I noticed is that the guidance in general has sped up a bit (except the GFS which was faster all along). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 12z Euro is south of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Wow talk about your windshield wipering...WI back in the game according to the 12Z suite after looking to get shut out at 00z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 12z Euro definitely on the southern end of the suite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Euro still well south. Centered around the I-80 corridor in IL and the IA/MO border roughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Euro still well south. Centered around the I-80 corridor in IL and the IA/MO border roughly. I think I'd still rather be north of I-80 in Illinois, especially with eastward extent. Sometimes you get the either/or solution to work out but very often it ends up in some varying degree of model compromise, and a compromise would put the better snows north of I-80 in LOT's area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: I think I'd still rather be north of I-80 in Illinois, especially with eastward extent. Sometimes you get the either/or solution to work out but very often it ends up in some varying degree of model compromise, and a compromise would put the better snows north of I-80 in LOT's area. Yeah I agree with that, I think the heaviest will definitely end up being north of I-80, if I had to guess now I’d say it’ll probably be centered somewhere near I-88 actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Putting up the tree Sunday evening. An ongoing blizzard would be to perfect. Im not that lucky.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 This is very strange. GFS and Euro totally flip flopped. Haven't had chance to look in depth but is Euro more open aloft with the wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 9 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: This is very strange. GFS and Euro totally flip flopped. Haven't had chance to look in depth but is Euro more open aloft with the wave? Yeah the GFS is closed off/stronger for longer. Euro opens it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yeah the GFS is closed off/stronger for longer. Euro opens it up. Makes sense. Guess only time will tell. I feel like a NAM/EURO compromise is best atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Gaylord looking good. Pigeon River State forest -- yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I find it quite interesting as this system phases it weakens the precip out this way on the Euro. Then again the Euro does do some wonky things from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Still worried about a miss NW here. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Still worried about a miss NW here. We will see. I think your area is good I wouldn't worry about a miss at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 NAM looks farther north too right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 LOT popped a watch for NW counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: NAM looks farther north too right now Eh. Maybe a touch, but it looks pretty close to the 12z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Eh. Maybe a touch, but it looks pretty close to the 12z so far In placement of the low that is (or so it seemed to me early on) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 This might be a close call for me. I would be pretty bummed to miss a Sunday snowstorm by a few dozen miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 It looked north at first but in reality it’s pretty similar to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Metro smoked on the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 The 18z NAM is also a lot weaker over Iowa, but considerably further north than the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Chicago NWS What we know... Strong upper level disturbance over the northern Pacific is progged to move over the Pacific Northwest this evening and tonight and dig into the southern/central Great Plains early on Sunday. Surface low will deepen in response lifting from Missouri early Sunday morning across the Midwest Sunday evening. Warm advection wing will overspread the region early in the day Sunday allowing the column to saturate and for precipitation to eventually reach the surface. P-type details will still have to be worked out, but precip may start off as rainfall in some areas before transitioning over to snow for the remainder of the event. There will likely be a swath of heavy snow left of the surface low track. Confidence is highest in accumulating snow over far north and northwest Illinois and diminishes farther south. Details that still need to be worked out... Surface low track is the main area of uncertainty. While there has been a pronounced southward shift from yesterday`s guidance, the latest suite of 12Z guidance still has important inter-model differences that will impact the location of heaviest snow. Meso-scale banding will be a concern within the axis of heaviest snow. Guidance indicates a corridor of strong f-gen which will help enhance snow totals for some locations. In addition, lapse rates above 700/600mb remain steep at times and could help to promote a deep vertical response to forcing. SREF/GEFS plumes really highlight the uncertainty well showing a broad range of no snow to over a foot of snowfall in some members. Bottom line... A winter storm appears likely somewhere across eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin, though details in the placement of the heaviest snow remains low within 50- 100 miles. Rain/Snow line is favored to set up over the CWA, but again confidence is low within 50-100 miles. Either way, travel impacts Sunday are likely, and may potentially become significant for some locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Sped up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 The iconic ICON is a bit north/weaker sfc low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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