Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Just to put into perspective as well for climatology purposes for November. DTW is at 6" already for the month, if we were to get 5.9" more we would break the all time November record which is 11.8" total. 3.2" is all that is needed to break top 5 Novembers on record. I am sure Chicago is in the same boat from historical perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 On 11/23/2018 at 3:43 AM, CoalCityWxMan said: 06z NAM crushes the IA/IL border into southern Wisconsin Less flat track this run leading toward huge differences locally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 That run cranked up the wind fields more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Less flat track this run leading toward huge differences locally.Much better phasing at h5 led to that more northeastward oriented sfc low track. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 On 11/23/2018 at 3:54 AM, RCNYILWX said: Much better phasing at h5 led to that more northeastward oriented sfc low track. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Yep, GRR in their AFD from an hour ago mentioned that there is a potential of that outcome as well still with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 That run cranked up the wind fields more. Strongest 925 mb winds modeled in a winter system here since before...2/24/16? Otherwise don't recall 60-70 kt 925 mb winds (as shown at 06z over southern LM and Cook county and NW IN) being modeled. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That run cranked up the wind fields more. Nearly 60 kts at 925 mb plowing onshore around the IL/IN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Strongest 925 mb winds modeled in a winter system here since before...2/24/16? Otherwise don't recall 60-70 kt 925 mb winds being modeled. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Yeah it's been a few years. I think GHD had something close but would have to check. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 DVN: Quote .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) ISSUED AT 309 AM CST Fri Nov 23 2018 Main focus of the long term period is on the potential early season storm late Saturday night through Sunday night. Model trends/analysis: Much uncertainty continues with a general trend toward a southward shift in the heavier snow axis. The EC has joined the GFS in this shift, while the parallel GFS (GFSFV3) remains farther north. Heavy snow diagnostics, including Bufkit soundings, support heavy snow potential with favorable omega/DGZ profile. Can`t rule out brief period of freezing rain/sleet at onset, but temps aloft will quickly crash with dynamic cooling. Forecast adjustments: Slight shift to the south with slightly higher amounts. Highest amounts of 6+ inches currently favored in east central and southeast Iowa. Also increased wind speeds Sunday/Sunday night and potential for blowing snow. Confidence: Remains low with the system just coming on shore. Variations still possible in the track and intensity. Impacts/hazards: Potentially high with travel after the Thanksgiving holiday. Could see periods of very low visibilities with 1-2 inch hourly snowfall rates, resulting in very hazardous travel. Heavy, wet snow combined with winds could result in downed limbs and power lines. Headlines: Opted to go with a Winter Storm Watch for a large portion of the forecast area due to the uncertainty. Potential for 4 to 8 inch snowfall amounts in the watch area, although this is preliminary and additional adjustments will occur as forecast confidence increases. IA...Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for Benton-Cedar-Clinton-Iowa-Jackson-Johnson-Jones- Keokuk-Linn-Washington. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Des Moines-Henry IA-Jefferson-Lee-Louisa-Muscatine- Scott-Van Buren. IL...Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for Carroll. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Henderson-Henry IL-Mercer-Rock Island-Whiteside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 In Ames for this storm, it’s fun watching the northern edge slide completely out of play for us. I think DSM has gone several years without a 6” storm... that looks to continue here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Can anyone post the 0z euro snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: Can anyone post the 0z euro snow map? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Thanks a bunch! Wow that caved big time to gfs. Curious to see if this trend holds or if models will nudge back north after sampling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 The trend is my friend here in IKK. P&C still has me down for 45 degrees and rain on Sunday. Excited to follow the storm with you boys this weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 We're starting to get into the 3km NAM range now. The 06z at 60hrs is already 5mb deeper than the 12km NAM. Precip fields look pretty sick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 5 hours ago, Stebo said: Just to put into perspective as well for climatology purposes for November. DTW is at 6" already for the month, if we were to get 5.9" more we would break the all time November record which is 11.8" total. 3.2" is all that is needed to break top 5 Novembers on record. I am sure Chicago is in the same boat from historical perspective. A little farther east, and PWM has had two 6" storms in November for the first time since 1898. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 That's an okay look for eastern IA. Under that mid level f-gen is a forecast sounding showing a nice MAUL with strongest lift right through the DGZ. Good signal for a warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Such a tricky forecast for Chicago metro and burbs. Would hate to be a local met and have to call this one. Rain/Snow line is close as it is Lake = Warm Track differences between models have some either getting crushed or not much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 I think cyclone may have said it earlier, but it’s not a bad spot to be in when you are worried about being missed to the north or south. A bit more room for error locally. Either way, this is going to be a massively disruptive storm on a huge travel day. I think I have heard that Sunday is the busiest day of the year for air travel, as everyone is returning home for the work week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 New NAM looking very nice for much of LOT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: New NAM looking very nice for much of LOT. Pretty good agreement with 06z GFS. Starting to get excited about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: New NAM looking very nice for much of LOT. Looking good. Any idea when NWS- LOT updates their forecast discussions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 minute ago, ChiTownSnow said: Looking good. Any idea when NWS- LOT updates their forecast discussions? This afternoon around 3ish will be the big one. Wouldn’t surprise me to see watches hoisted around then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: This afternoon around 3ish will be the big one. Wouldn’t surprise me to see watches hoisted around then. Thank you, sir. This storm made me join the forum . Came from the old Accuweather Forums that appears to have shut down for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 DVNs AFD was kinda lackluster in terms of model diagnostics. Didn’t say much other than noting a southward shift. Was hoping for more discussion than that. 06z models ticked a bit farther north, but the 12z NAM is back to being super ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 25 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Pretty good agreement with 06z GFS. Starting to get excited about this one. Cue Aerosmith's "Livin on the Edge". In the Spring, I moved from Springfield, IL back to the area I grew up near Mishawaka, IN. This is a nail biter here in Northern Indiana. Hoping for a decent lake response to get a boost in totals if the heaviest axis of snow goes north of my location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, hlcater said: DVNs AFD was kinda lackluster in terms of model diagnostics. Didn’t say much other than noting a southward shift. Was hoping for more discussion than that. 06z models ticked a bit farther north, but the 12z NAM is back to being super ugly. It's a little on the edge of the domain for calculation, but the Stony Brook ensemble sensitivity tools suggest that the weaker shortwave/low pressure combo has a tendency to favor southern solutions. A stronger shortwave coming onshore in the Pac NW this evening has a greater potential for a stronger low and cutting across (north) the temp gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: It's a little on the edge of the domain for calculation, but the Stony Brook ensemble sensitivity tools suggest that the weaker shortwave/low pressure combo has a tendency to favor southern solutions. A stronger shortwave coming onshore in the Pac NW this evening has a greater potential for a stronger low and cutting across (north) the temp gradient. That’s what I was looking for. Thanks. They just mentioned the southern trend and nothing else. Thought it was odd they were that brief with it. Normally they add something else to support their forecast instead of a single trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Just now, hlcater said: That’s what I was looking for. Thanks. They just mentioned the southern trend and nothing else. Thought it was odd they were that brief with it. Normally they add something else to support their forecast instead of a single trend I wouldn't throw in the towel on anything until that wave is sampled more fully this evening anyway. There is a fair amount of spread on the north side even at this shorter range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I wouldn't throw in the towel on anything until that wave is sampled more fully this evening anyway. There is a fair amount of spread on the north side even at this shorter range. I’m not quite discouraged yet, but the trend is not our friend here. One thing I have noticed is the feature that will become the Superior/hudson low came ashore slightly weaker than the NAM/GFS. I do dislike how it seems like it’s always a nail biter for CR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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