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Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential


Malacka11
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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

12z Euro is a crush job in the heavy band.  And big nw to se gradient around Chicago metro.

10:1 Euro map. Taking a risk posting it, but it's freely available on weather.us now(though not rendered out that far yet). I also think they adjusted their color curve up a few notches. Cyan used to be 24" and pink used to be 8".

post-46-0-70039800-1542911451.png

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Fwiw, the November 2015 storm that screwed downtown Chicago had a water temp at the southern buoy of 49F, and 850 mb temps around -5C to -6C for most of that storm. This morning's reading at the southern buoy was 44F.  This setup is different in that it will start out warmer and then the caa comes crashing in.  Of course all of this will be moot if the track shifts northwest enough to take most of the metro area out of the game.  

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Looking at various model fields/soundings, one of the things I noticed is the layer of fairly steep lapse rates aloft.  One ramification of that could be a quicker southeastward collapse of the rain/snow line than modeled if heavier precip rates or even some convective elements materialize.  

This is gonna be a fun system.  

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49 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I think the GFS is too far SE and too progressive as it often is.

Different type of set up this time, this is essentially 3 systems. One that comes through Friday into Saturday, a second low into Canada across Lake Superior on Sunday and then the main system for snow Monday. System 1 and 2 are trending faster and stronger which is pushing system 3 further southeast, especially because of system 2. Things could of course change between now and then but those first 2 systems are much closer than system 3 and dictate what will happen down the road.

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9 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Different type of set up this time, this is essentially 3 systems. One that comes through Friday into Saturday, a second low into Canada across Lake Superior on Sunday and then the main system for snow Monday. System 1 and 2 are trending faster and stronger which is pushing system 3 further southeast, especially because of system 2. Things could of course change between now and then but those first 2 systems are much closer than system 3 and dictate what will happen down the road.

We’ll see, but given that the GFS is so much faster compared to consensus and given history of similar shenanigans, I find it difficult to put much weight on it, especially because it’s the outlier. DVN agreed in their AFD(either current or the 3am one)

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16 minutes ago, hlcater said:

We’ll see, but given that the GFS is so much faster compared to consensus and given history of similar shenanigans, I find it difficult to put much weight on it, especially because it’s the outlier. DVN agreed in their AFD(either current or the 3am one)

Is it an outlier? Euro/NAM/FV3-GFS all trended SE over the last day.

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