ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Record cold in store for Thanksgiving...some places may set their all time November record low max...before that though, we have the arctic front that may produce some snow squalls...esp in NNE, but even SNE could get a few. Post 'em here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 41F here with a southwest wind, clouds are increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 I think there will be many low max records set on TD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 Both MAV and MET have a high of 17F for ORH on Tday. This would not only crush the record low max for the date, but it would set a new all time record low max for the month of November. The current record is 20F on 11/30/58. To beat that would be impressive enough....but to beat it 8 days earlier would be even more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Both MAV and MET have a high of 17F for ORH on Tday. This would not only crush the record low max for the date, but it would set a new all time record low max for the month of November. The current record is 20F on 11/30/58. To beat that would be impressive enough....but to beat it 8 days earlier would be even more impressive. Gotta watch how quickly we can cool by 5Z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: Gotta watch how quickly we can cool by 5Z too. MAV 14F by 06z and MET 16F and Euro 2m is 15F....I'm pretty confident it will be below 20F at least by 05z. But yeah, if there's a slight lag, then we could get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: MAV 14F by 06z and MET 16F and Euro 2m is 15F....I'm pretty confident it will be below 20F at least by 05z. But yeah, if there's a slight lag, then we could get screwed. Yeah I saw that, but it seems like whenever I'm eyeballing this stuff we lag a few degrees behind MOS and 2m. This is an impressive front so maybe it'll be the real deal and maybe even overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Get pooched by a cheap midnight high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Yeah I saw that, but it seems like whenever I'm eyeballing this stuff we lag a few degrees behind MOS and 2m. This is an impressive front so maybe it'll be the real deal and maybe even overperform. The delivery vector is pretty ideal from Quebec to the N of NY State as the source region, so hopefully it comes in strong. We typically underperform when the component is more westerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 It is getting cloudy a lot quicker now, temp doesn't feel like 41, more like 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 First ever Snow Squall Warning just issued for me. Might have been BTV's first? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: First ever Snow Squall Warning just issued for me. Might have been BTV's first? sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The delivery vector is pretty ideal from Quebec to the N of NY State as the source region, so hopefully it comes in strong. We typically underperform when the component is more westerly. Was thinking about that when Ryan went live on TV with hydra split Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Looking forward to the BR/Brockton football game at 10 tomorrow. It's my daughter's last football game as a cheerleader, so I have to go.Should be brisk.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: First ever Snow Squall Warning just issued for me. Might have been BTV's first? How do you verify these? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: How do you verify these? Kind of tough...here's what I found. Some of this is hard to verify. Criteria for the National Weather Service to issue a Snow squall warning include: Visibility of less that one quarter of a mile Sub-freezing temperatures on the ground Expected to last in one area less than 60 minutes Cause dangerous and life-threatening conditions[4] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Kind of tough...here's what I found. Some of this is hard to verify. Criteria for the National Weather Service to issue a Snow squall warning include: Visibility of less that one quarter of a mile Sub-freezing temperatures on the ground Expected to last in one area less than 60 minutes Cause dangerous and life-threatening conditions[4] Nice thread about today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 I'd hazard to guess "Cause dangerous and life-threatening conditions" are the multi-vehicle accidents you always see when these squalls happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: HRRR The old RSM would've been all over this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Anyone know what the RPM has for Ocean Effect Snow chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Kind of tough...here's what I found. Some of this is hard to verify. Criteria for the National Weather Service to issue a Snow squall warning include: Visibility of less that one quarter of a mile Sub-freezing temperatures on the ground Expected to last in one area less than 60 minutes Cause dangerous and life-threatening conditions[4] I mean you can assess damage from a severe thunderstorm, but visibility readings are few and far between. I suppose the RWIS sites will come in handy to supplement the METARs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Heading north on 93 or 89 will be tricky with those squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 I think some places east of HYA will overperform with the Ocean Effect Snow event, perhaps a few places picking up 4" in the persistent bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Heading north on 93 or 89 will be tricky with those squalls. Look like little thunderstorm cells as they track across eastern MA later this evening, should pass between 6 and 7 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think some places east of HYA will overperform with the Ocean Effect Snow event, perhaps a few places picking up 4" in the persistent bands RPM doesn’t have any OES. Too westerly on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: RPM doesn’t have any OES. Too westerly on that model. The 12z RGEM and 00z EURO are the most robust, with the RGEM bringing 2-4" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: The old RSM would've been all over this. Old RSM nailed 1/28/10 I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Saw a pic from Stowe of a near whiteout (from Weir Lundstat) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 hour ago, dryslot said: I think there will be many low max records set on TD. Maybe for places with 7A obs time, or in VT where the CAA begins earlier, though I'm rooting for an early arrival. I think this one will be like last Wednesday - cheap 33 the evening before then an afternoon max of 17. For this one, cut 5° from both readings. I see a better chance of beating my coldest November morning, currently -4 in 2014. Of course, if the wind stays up past midnight, like it did last week to keep temps in the positive, that opportunity is also lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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