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DomNH

11/20 Storm Disco & Obs

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18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sometimes you can get really heavy bands just north of the dryslot there. I guess we will see tomorrow morning. Precip overnight looks pretty meh just about everywhere. Maybe a bit of a band in S VT and S/C NH but not all that intense. 

Seems like most of the show is really going to be between about 10z and 18z or so. Maybe if a little mini-stinger can develop it will linger into 21z....but for SNE I think the window is mostly tomorrow morning through about lunchtime....if it's going to happen. 

My biggest forecast concern is how persistent the forcing is in the mid levels. That could mean one narrow stripe ends up with the goods, with meh to either side.

It's possible some narrow band tickles over 6 inches.

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1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

RGEM is loving Mass

Yeah hubbdave FTW on that run

 

 

Nov20_00zRGEM.png

Kevin_toaster.jpg

  • Haha 5

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah hubbdave FTW on that run

It's interesting, as the HRRR is backing off southern NH and northern MA on the 00z run. 

Looking to me like it just gets going too late to do much there.

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33 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

My biggest forecast concern is how persistent the forcing is in the mid levels. That could mean one narrow stripe ends up with the goods, with meh to either side.

It's possible some narrow band tickles over 6 inches.

I could see this. I think the best forcing is a hair north of me and I may get stuck in lighter/showery returns and end up closer to 2-3'' than 4-5'' but we'll see. NAM/HRRR definitely banging the W ME jack. 

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26 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It was light rain at my house in a Hubbardston at 1000’.    Latitude helping too

Still raining here at almost 1,100 feet just south of RT 2..…probably snowing at my folks 100' higher down the road lol 

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1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

Still raining here at almost 1,100 feet just south of RT 2..…probably snowing at my folks 100' higher down the road lol 

All snow at my house now.   Not sticking to anything but at least it is frozen.  

I really hope we don’t have delays or cancellations....ugh 

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's interesting, as the HRRR is backing off southern NH and northern MA on the 00z run. 

Looking to me like it just gets going too late to do much there.

The whole thing looks kind of ugly right now. RGEM def looked the most organized, but a lot of these HRRR/RAP runs are less so. 3km NAM was pretty disorganized too. There's competing forces it seems on these disorganized runs...just when it looks like a ML weenie band will get going, the convective stuff near the dryslot robs it and the sim reflectivity turns putrid to the north...then that stuff turns showery and a weenie band tries to get going again, but then rinse and repeat.

 

The HRRR kind of shows these competing forces with a second enhanced band down in MA south of the main S NH one.

 

Nov20_00zHRRR.thumb.png.df0b83bd01bb277083f14eef7b724f54.png

 

But who knows...I've seen these things pop really fast at the last second and all of the sudden you're wondering what happened right when you were ready to throw in the towel on a decent event.

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10 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Is this event considered "a little critter"?

I don’t think so...aren’t those more from Alberta?   I never found the paper Tip mentions from time to time.  Bozart I think?

 

edit: Lance Bosart.   Alberts has nothing to do with it.  Just a smallish looking event that sometimes blossoms...not sure why

Original source would help me maybe.

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I think some wet flakes are mixing in here but it’s hard to tell. Hoping to wake up to white and solid mod snow but preparing myself for wet roads and mangled flakes. We’ll see. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The whole thing looks kind of ugly right now. RGEM def looked the most organized, but a lot of these HRRR/RAP runs are less so. 3km NAM was pretty disorganized too. There's competing forces it seems on these disorganized runs...just when it looks like a ML weenie band will get going, the convective stuff near the dryslot robs it and the sim reflectivity turns putrid to the north...then that stuff turns showery and a weenie band tries to get going again, but then rinse and repeat.

 

The HRRR kind of shows these competing forces with a second enhanced band down in MA south of the main S NH one.

 

Nov20_00zHRRR.thumb.png.df0b83bd01bb277083f14eef7b724f54.png

 

But who knows...I've seen these things pop really fast at the last second and all of the sudden you're wondering what happened right when you were ready to throw in the towel on a decent event.

I'm actually surprised to even see snow mixing in here already.  Radar extrapolation would suggest maybe that steadier, heavier stuff out near Binghampton moves through here later? 

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Just now, DomNH said:

I think some wet flakes are mixing in here but it’s hard to tell. Hoping to wake up to white and solid mod snow but preparing myself for wet roads and mangled flakes. We’ll see. 

You should wake up to some accumulating snow.

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2 minutes ago, DomNH said:

I think some wet flakes are mixing in here but it’s hard to tell. Hoping to wake up to white and solid mod snow but preparing myself for wet roads and mangled flakes. We’ll see. 

I've had some catpaws here at times 

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You should wake up to some accumulating snow.

I think so but not loving the last second trends/flags. But hey that’s the fun of meteorology. 

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm actually surprised to even see snow mixing in here already.  Radar extrapolation would suggest maybe that steadier, heavier stuff out near Binghampton moves through here later? 

Yeah you should get that stuff in NY State...though its not overly intense. I think if someone is gonna pop a 6 spot, it's gonna come tomorrow morning as the low starts intensifying south of SNE and heavier stuff starts blossoming nearly overhead.

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2 minutes ago, DomNH said:

I think so but not loving the last second trends/flags. But hey that’s the fun of meteorology. 

Its a very good sign if you have 1-2" by 12z....good chance you might not have much of any accumulation by 12z...and most of it comes after 12z.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you should get that stuff in NY State...though its not overly intense. I think if someone is gonna pop a 6 spot, it's gonna come tomorrow morning as the low starts intensifying south of SNE and heavier stuff starts blossoming nearly overhead.

I really hope nobody S of Dendrite was planning on that given the tenuous nature of this system and November climo...    I will be thrilled to have gotten three accumulating events in the 3rd week of November.

#all gravy this early

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2 minutes ago, Professional Lurker said:

Just left work.  Rain in greenfield.  Snow in bernardston.

Are you up on Fox Hill?   It's 50/50 here but I am on the N edge of town.  After all the elevation discussion in the other thread today, this is actually one of those instances of how a few hundred feet can sometimes make a difference.

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All snow in Ashburnham, accumulating on everything but the roads, when I left my parents house around 9.  It changed to rain around Ashby Townsend.  Currently a slushy rain in MHT.  

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