BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That bullseye is right over the metro northeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 3k 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 Thinking general 3-5" with some 6-8" max spots tomorrow. Band is going to be very strong, hitting at the AM commute. Not a good combination. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Snow started about 10 mins ago, picking up in intensity.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Impressive to me is the white Thanksgiving the majority of upstate New York will see. Sure we've had lake effect storms this time of year but those were localized...this is pretty significant that the area as a whole will share in this. Not very common. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Snowing steadily here too but temperatures are in the 30s so it’s not accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 Yes please. Shear might be an issue with that low so close. It's going to retrograde. Where it retrogrades will determine where the bands set-up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yes please. Shear might be an issue with that low so close. It's going to retrograde. Where it retrogrades will determine where the bands set-up. That would be a new one in my years of weather watching. A low that retrogrades from the EC all the way back to Upper GL’s with enough cold air back in front of the low for a SW flow lake effect event. I suppose it’s possible if blocking is strong enough, but color me highly skeptical at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: That would be a new one in my years of weather watching. A low that retrogrades from the EC all the way back to Upper GL’s with enough cold air back in front of the low for a SW flow lake effect event. I suppose it’s possible if blocking is strong enough, but color me highly skeptical at this point. Oh, it's way out there still and likely won't happen. But it has some decent model support, the indices support a retro. There are actually two lows, one gets stuck over the GL and the other heads off to Nova Scotia. You can see the pressure falls northwest of Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 45 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Oh, it's way out there still and likely won't happen. But it has some decent model support, the indices support a retro. There are actually two lows, one gets stuck over the GL and the other heads off to Nova Scotia. You can see the pressure falls northwest of Ottawa. That would be great for BUF. Terrible for Roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 ECMWF Euro weeklies remain cold most weeks. Looks cold through early December. Mid-December the Euro weeklies show a mild break, which lines up with the EPS MJO forecast. Euro weeklies are cold again by week 6 (week 5 EIA Fri-Thu weeks) or about December 20. The mild mid-Dec and cold end matches that 1969 analog. November is starting to remind me of cold years where the blocking just kept on giving more cold. We'll see, but this is a statistically favorable pattern to be in early if one likes winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Hard to break a pattern lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Pure snow up on the Tug....but the second we got off the hill it became more of a rainy wet snow. Sitting in construction now on 81 near 481 ramps. Joy. Some bigger flakes mixing in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Hard to break a pattern lol Can see that low parked north of Huron, definitely some LES potential in that time frame. Worried about enough cold air/shear though. Need to get within timeframe of Mesos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Big fluffy flakes falling now as temps have dropped several degrees since this morning, decent burst with this back edge moving through.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 232 PM EST Tue Nov 20 2018 NYZ018-036-037-211945- /O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0030.181121T1200Z-181122T0300Z/ Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida- Including the cities of Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, and Utica 232 PM EST Tue Nov 20 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph Wednesday afternoon and evening. * WHERE...Onondaga, Madison, and Southern Oneida Counties. * WHEN...Steady light snow will develop Wednesday morning, with lake enhanced snow showers and squalls Wednesday afternoon and evening, along and behind an arctic cold front. Squalls could produce whiteout conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 If KBGM puts an advisory out for Onon, Mad and Oneida then I pay attention but if KBUF puts one out for Oswego, Lewis and Jefferson, then I pay no attention at all!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Hmmm So the RGEM has the heaviest snow overnight out ahead of the arctic front, yet the NWS starts the WWA tomorrow 7 am? Most of tomorrow looks like a NW regime with scattered multi bands.. Unless the RGEM is way off on timing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Channel 9’s timecast has a squall line moving through the Syracuse metro area between 7 and 8 AM ahead of the arctic front followed by multi bands through the day into the evening on a NW flow. They’re keeping the accumulations down with 3-5 over the Tug and only 1-3 elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Going to be fun to watch the band swing back and forth through the area out ahead and then behind the front lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 You can see the the lake starting to fire Se of ontario, that will eventually migrate north as the front approaches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 One positive is it’s extremely fluffy snow, more accumulation in 5 min then I’ve seen all day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Cannot believe I have lived in NWPA since 1980 and only this summer got a place in our county's snow capital. I thought Edinboro was a different micro climate and in the snowbelt, by my word out there at the NY state line at our little cabin paradise it is just a different world. Stopped out after work to check before leaving. Looks like deep winter, 8 or 9" on the ground, light snow in the air, 28 degrees. At work along the lake, did leaves outside all day, upper 30's, not snow otg at all. Down here at home, several inches at best with some grass showing under the pines. I cannot wait til we build our home out there on Weeks Valley! Headed out the door to Charlotte to visit family for the holiday. A little disappointed I won't be here for the cold white Turkey Day...:) Anyway, wanted to wish you all a Happy Thanksgiving. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Wow, really wasn't expecting a single band to develop overhead like it is and its seems to be intensifying with every refresh of the radar. Perhaps we can squeeze out a couple inches before it heads North ahead of the CF, then it'll swing South fast, then redevelop on a NW multiband flow but I think we get our accumulation tonight, when there are no adv's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 Latest model runs have trended down for snowfall totals 2-4” most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Long shot but who knows when it comes to the lake..haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Latest model runs have trended down for snowfall totals 2-4” most likely I honestly would not be shocked at a coating at best in northern Erie...ground is still relatively wet/not frozen couple with the band's movement means less than anticipated. Will probably have to wait until end of November early December for a big snow in the Niagara Frontier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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