CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 A roller coaster of a pattern. This week we go from rain to rn/snow then snow. We accumulate a few to several inches, then we warm next week again into upper 40's low 50's and melt it all, then we cool once again before the holidays but then I think we head into a more sustained cold and snowy scenario or pattern for the next several weeks. This year so far is mimicking 2002-03 to a T, a strong analog that is working like a charm so far, where November came in way below normal then Dec came and we warmed and warmed more so than we do the next couple weeks. It managed to snow a ft in Syracuse Xmas day and it was spectacular and magical looking on that Morning. It did so in a relatively warm period too, so it can snow, and may do so this yr as well, so I wouldn't discount a system for the holiday week so we'll see what happens. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 It'll be interesting to see, once this precip finally enters our area, exactly what kind of precip it is, lol! The Tug may very well be snow but I doubt it at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 This precip is having a very hard time getting in here because of the dry air just off the deck. Let her saturate, as it'll wet bulb down to at least 31F, as the dp where I am is sitting at 26F. Its gonna get in here and the longer it takes to precipitate, the better chance we have at seeing frozen precip rather than fz/rn as sleet isn't really a possibility but plain rn is. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Would be nice if we had a few posters in Oneida County cause I would love an obs report from KRME to see what their experiencing. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Central Otsego County: Precip started around 0700, mix of sleet and freezing rain, temp 31F. Now at 32F, and the small amount of ice accretion we had is liquifying. Still having spotty light rain showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 It’s actually pretty nice out at the moment all though a breeze is starting to kick up..Not sure it precipitates hard enough to lower temps much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Rain here in Hannibal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Euro has some snow on christmas day, couple inches or so..As well as the GFS Para.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Switched over to some wet flakes after starting off with some drizzle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Rain but it is getting colder from the top down but precips gone already so it doesn't make a diff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2018 Author Share Posted December 16, 2018 I'll see you guys in January. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Well, it looks like even most of the Tug will lose our snow pack by the end of this week with that UGLY system coming in. Could end up being a Green Christmas here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2018 Author Share Posted December 17, 2018 I'd take this for christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2018 Author Share Posted December 17, 2018 The pattern right now is conducive for cutter after cutter. It's possible to sneak in a synoptic snow event, weak LES event although it's not favorable. Unfortunately not much more than that. Models trended warmer the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Well, it looks like even most of the Tug will lose our snow pack by the end of this week with that UGLY system coming in. Could end up being a Green Christmas here. That would be pretty rare and very depressing. I’ve been concerned all along about this El Niño winter of ours. I recall one from the early 80’s that crushed my soul. Hopefully, the smart guys from here are right and it’ll come roaring back for Jan-Feb. This pacific flow is for the birds. Euro long range shows about 8” in Rochester over the next 45 days. Ugh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2018 Author Share Posted December 17, 2018 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: That would be pretty rare and very depressing. I’ve been concerned all along about this El Niño winter of ours. I recall one from the early 80’s that crushed my soul. Hopefully, the smart guys from here are right and it’ll come roaring back for Jan-Feb. This pacific flow is for the birds. Euro long range shows about 8” in Rochester over the next 45 days. Ugh Yeah, I'm actually getting a little worried as well. Tossing December is never good for above normal snowfall in Upstate. It's a pretty important month, especially for Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'll see you guys in January. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Yeah, I was thinking the same today perusing the op models. Maybe upstate will sneak in a minor event before the calendar flips, but not seeing any sustained winter weather before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Obviously way out there but I don’t think we see a green Christmas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Not so sure, Wolfie. Snow depth averages 4 to 6 inches with grass showing up under thick pines and steep southern exposed slopes. A couple days of 40s and a big rain will destroy it this week. Much of that snow shown on those maps is from lake involvement...and we have seen how lame the lake effect season has been. With such quick flow and wind changes, it hasn't allowed for much...other than the Watertown event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 I guess i was hoping for some wrap around flakes lol The exact track will determine how quickly we change over, if we do at all.. It wasn't long ago when today's storm was rain for everyone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Just took the garbage out. Driveway and road are a sheet of ice. All moisture on the roads is freezing, plus freezing fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 It would take a lot for this upcoming storm to be mostly frozen but a good start would be a trend towards the ukmet, which goes through E/C NY.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 49 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It would take a lot for this upcoming storm to be mostly frozen but a good start would be a trend towards the ukmet, which goes through E/C NY.. UKie has been in the eastern camp. Euro was kinda east too. But I think this one is cooked. Just so little cold available. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: In a horrible pattern I’d be thrilled to pickup 8-10”. Still looking for a signal of a significant pattern change in the long range but it’s just not there and long range is getting into January already.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2018 Author Share Posted December 17, 2018 Jan is going to be epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Para gfs is ummm....interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Jan is going to be epic What makes you think that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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