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Upstate/Eastern New York


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1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

As you were saying normal or slightly below normal temps gets us snow this time of year and I’d rather have a pattern like that than brutal arctic cold but the storm track is suppressed to the south over the M/A or SE. Honestly I hate the cold as I’m getting older so give me 30 and snow and I’ll be a happy camper. 

High 20s and heavy lake effect snow is the best pattern. 

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Looking a little further ahead, it does appear likely cold air will
return by next weekend. Model guidance shows typical variance in the
synoptic scale details, but in a broad sense a deep trough will
begin to carve out over central and eastern North America, allowing
colder air to move back into the Great Lakes and New England. GEFS
and CMCE ensembles over the past few days show good support for
troughing and cold air becoming established most of the time for the
week between Christmas and New Years. Thus, it appears the warmup
this weekend and again later next week will be transitory with more
consistent winter weather on the horizon.
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 A strong cold front will blast
through the area with gusty cold advection likely on Monday.
Inversion height rise rather rapidly and lake-induced instability
maximizes southeast of the lakes on Monday. This will be especially
true over Lake Ontario. Shear in the unstable layer reduces and a
period of maybe 9 or so hours of lake effect snow seems likely
southeast of the lakes. At the moment, with the better instability
and fetch off of Lake Ontario, accumulations were ramped up there,
however model trends will need to be monitored as higher resolution
guidance becomes available, as headlines in briefly moderate/heavy
lake effect snow may be possible.
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Not anymore. I only saw the one this year. It was definitely a fireball. I wasn’t even looking but it grabbed my attention. Streaked the entire sky. 

Love those. I also like the quick zippers. Sometimes I wonder if I’m the only human who saw it. It travelled millions of miles and burned up before my eyes only. Trippy. Haha

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