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Upstate/Eastern New York


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6 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

The best events are the ones that pop up out of nowhere..

 

Agree. As unremarkable as the SR and LR looks, we've seen this before...something usually develops. We may not like the outcome always but it's not like we live in the high desert of Nevada. ;)

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1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I'm really surprised this isn't creating a bit more precip throughout the area as its a nice little disturbance aloft, but with absolutely no moisture to work with, there's really nothing to tap from!  

Left my home at 1650 feet, light to moderate snow falling, ground coated.

In the valley below, 1200 feet, very light snow, hardly anything on the ground.

The dry air is eating it up.

 

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Screenshot_2018-12-14-08-23-17.thumb.png.8b00cdce5cea8ec018ed073af5ac485a.png

He goes on to say in his Twitter response that this should become winters main event but doesn't happen til early January.

I saw the ice boom went into place yesterday. I think that thing quickens the rate at which Erie freezes by about 50%. The ice would otherwise just flow down Niagara River until it got really cold. Are there any stats in place before the ice boom was put into the lake and the average freeze date? 

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13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I saw the ice boom went into place yesterday. I think that thing quickens the rate at which Erie freezes by about 50%. The ice would otherwise just flow down Niagara River until it got really cold. Are there any stats in place before the ice boom was put into the lake and the average freeze date? 

I can't be sure, but my intuition is that is has very little effect on the overall freeze up of the lake.  Ice flows would just start jamming up around the peace bridge pretty quickly on their own.  The boom just allows them to control where the jamming occurs.  

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13 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I can't be sure, but my intuition is that is has very little effect on the overall freeze up of the lake.  Ice flows would just start jamming up around the peace bridge pretty quickly on their own.  The boom just allows them to control where the jamming occurs.  

It definitely has some effect on the buildup of ice. The smaller flows would float down the river until it got pretty cold, high wind events which happen quite a bit in winter would surge the ice down the river. I know it keeps the areas surrounding the boom much colder in spring which is why I didn't want to purchase a house along the lake. From March-May anywhere within 1-2 miles of the lake is so much colder then the surrounding region as the last place to melt is the northeastern tip of Erie. 

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7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It definitely has some effect on the buildup of ice. The smaller flows would float down the river until it got pretty cold, high wind events which happen quite a bit in winter would surge the ice down the river. I know it keeps the areas surrounding the boom much colder in spring which is why I didn't want to purchase a house along the lake. From March-May anywhere within 1-2 miles of the lake is so much colder then the surrounding region as the last place to melt is the northeastern tip of Erie. 

Ice is an insulator, if ice continued to flow down the river, the lake could actually cool more quickly in your scenario as liquid water would continually be exposed to cold air.  That said, the impact is negligible relative to the scale of that lake.  Also, there have been studies on the ice boom and spring temps and absolutely no correlation was found.  The ice boom protects homeowners along the river and prevent issues with hydro electric power, but that boom is so tiny relative to the size and volume of lake Erie that no tangible weather effects have ever been observed.  It's all Buffalo Folklore.  

I should add, that maybe a mile or two directly around the boom might have a slightly colder day or so during a tiny time period right around the removal time if there was still pack ice, but overall this is virtually in the noise

http://niagara.nypa.gov/ALP working documents/finalreports/html/IS39.htm

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5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Ice is an insulator, if ice continued to flow down the river, the lake could actually cool more quickly in your scenario as liquid water would continually be exposed to cold air.  That said, the impact is negligible relative to the scale of that lake.  Also, there have been studies on the ice boom and spring temps and absolutely no correlation was found.  The ice boom protects homeowners along the river and prevent issues with hydro electric power, but that boom is so tiny relative to the size and volume of lake Erie that no tangible weather effects have ever been observed.  It's all Buffalo Folklore.  

I should add, that maybe a mile or two directly around the boom might have a slightly colder day or so during a tiny time period right around the removal time if there was still pack ice, but overall this is virtually in the noise

http://niagara.nypa.gov/ALP working documents/finalreports/html/IS39.htm

This is good stuff, I haven't really researched it too much but this makes sense. Going to read this tonight. 

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Today
 Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. 
Saturday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43
Sunday
 Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. 
Monday
 Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. 
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 27.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 37.
Thursday
 Partly sunny, with a high near 40. 
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20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The long range is starting to look much better and even then Mon night/tues the tug could get a few inches. Dec 21-23rd is when pattern change starts. But I don't see any true arctic air coming into the picture this year. 

As you were saying normal or slightly below normal temps gets us snow this time of year and I’d rather have a pattern like that than brutal arctic cold but the storm track is suppressed to the south over the M/A or SE. Honestly I hate the cold as I’m getting older so give me 30 and snow and I’ll be a happy camper. 

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