rochesterdave Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Not a good look. I think we wait until Christmas week for anything of note. Holy Crap. Who opened the door to hell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Rain to snow on the latest installment of the GFS for mid month.. The GFS has been all over the place with this system. Here’s the 12Z solution at the same time frame. I wouldn’t start taking this seriously until mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Holy Crap. Who opened the door to hell? Most weak el ninos feature warm Decembers, so this is normal. Jan/Feb should be great if analogs are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 17 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: The GFS has been all over the place with this system. Here’s the 12Z solution at the same time frame. I wouldn’t start taking this seriously until mid week. Yeah, the low pressure systems will have to create their own cold air because there is no mechanism to deliver any cold. However, climo Is starting to be in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Seems plausable.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Seems plausable.. Looks like spring. If that H were just a tad NW. OK, a big tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 WWA issued for Oswego and N Cayuga.. Intial burst getting set to move through, band is forming just behind it.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just dumping snow right now, enormous flake size.. we won't need much precip for this stuff to add up lol Interesting to see what happens with the band later this afternoon, NMM backs winds out of the west while some others keep it wnw.. King city radar looks more westerly at the moment with OBS confirming that.. Either way not going to be a huge event, but it's something! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Definitely a little more "westerly" on the latest RGEM.. "jacpots" Central part of the county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Pretty much a done deal where I'm at. 2,3" total, so at least ,it whitened up the area some . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I can't figure out why KBUF issued a WWA for a 2 hour, snow shower, lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 The next time frame for significant snows will be during Christmas week. MJO goes into a favorable cycle and we get some Pacific help. I actually like the look for W/SW LES events as the entrance of cold air is farther west than previous intrusions this year. Perfect timing for Christmas. Take this all as a grain of salt, as anything can happen in the next 15 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 December 13th to 22nd look 5-10 degrees above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 I don't think what we saw before was the event, as I think it was a brief appetizer before the main event, if ya wanna call it that, but winds are backing and I think we see a few more inches tonight so we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Looks like we may get to add a few inches after all, noice , but I wonder how long she lasts this go around. From the looks of the satellite loop, clouds extend all the way back to GB and beyond but they can erode under this HP just as quick as they appear, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Congrats Wolf, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Wow, it actually made it all the way up to Pulaski!, Lake Effect.................... you can either love it or hate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Band is a bit disorginized .. We are riding the northern edge as the band still has a northern tilt to it..More like a WNW Flow 280 vector.. RGEM seems to be doing ok so far, keeps the heaviest between fulton and Altmar most of the night.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Very good job actually, but too bad it had to be already mid way through the event for the RGEM to have finally picked up on the movement of whatever you wanna call what moved through. This wasn't forecasted well at all, even within 24hrs of the event from any of the other short range mesoscale models, even the RUC/RAP for that matter but they were close. There was no need at all for an Adv for No.Cayuga county for sure, but I think Oswego def did, for sure! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 The downside to the changing pattern will be that there will be a large and potentially problematic storm system that will plague much of the eastern third of the country by the weekend. The mainstream guidance packages are still having trouble resolving the evolution of this system...but there is increasing confidence that a large southern stream system will make its way across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday...before making a turn to the northeast Friday night and Saturday. It is the timing of this turn and subsequent track that are still being `debated` though. The deepening and ever expanding storm system could make its way northward along the western slopes of the Appalachians...or track further east and possibly off the Mid Atlantic coast. After a dry but cloudy day to start on Thursday...the above discussed storm system will create deteriorating conditions across our region Thursday night into the weekend. Will maintain the general thinking from continuity...which is that the storm system will cut west of the Appalachians and produce a fairly long period of rainy mild weather. Confidence in this solution is not high though. A more eastward track would lead to notably lower precipitation amounts and possibly some wintry p-types. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Euro is on the eastern side of guidance, therefore more wintry.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro is on the eastern side of guidance, therefore more wintry.. At least that would be interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Ukmet mslp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 The tracks the international models are showing seems to match the synoptic pattern we were in during early November. Perhaps we will return to that pattern before true winter sets in...I see a higher chance of "elevation-dependent" precipitation coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2018 Author Share Posted December 9, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just in time for xmas.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Gfs also follows suit with taking next weekend's system farther south and east, as well as being weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Good shot at some white before Christmas according to the GEFS.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Models sttill all over the place for early next weeks system.. Granted it's majority rain if we indeed see precip.. Starting to see some backside flakes showing up.. Big timing difference also.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Models sttill all over the place for early next weeks system.. Granted it's majority rain if we indeed see precip.. Starting to see some backside flakes showing up as well.. What a terrible boring weather pattern we’re in for the next several weeks at least. Can it be January 1st already? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now