wolfie09 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Nam products looking a little better east of L.Ontario.. Not sure what ratios are looking like but this would be at the very least a nice 5"-7" snowfall.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 31 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nam products looking a little better east of L.Ontario.. Not sure what ratios are looking like but this would be at the very least a nice 5"-7" snowfall.. NAM looks horrible off Erie, 2-4” max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Don't sleep on the HRDPS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, ayuud11 said: Don't sleep on the HRDPS!! All models showing that transition snow hole as usual :/ I really need to buy my next house south of 20A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Lake is having a quicker response than I thought, still looks relatively weak. I love LES so much more than synoptic. There is something special about swimming in the water in summer and having that same water fall on you in the form of snow in winter. Maybe it's the unpredictability with LES that is the best part. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The models are trying, just with not so much consistency.. Majority of them are in the ballpark.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Not lake Ontartio Lake New jersey http://brigantinebeachlive.com/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Nice meso forming pretty close to here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Good write-up from BUF on the upcoming LE. Throwing lots of caveats in about parameters and band placement. Which I have no problem with considering that predicting lake effect for any one area is really just a well educated guessing game. BTW - that's quite an atmospheric perturbation modeled over our area at hour 240. La la land, but shows up on both GFS and Euro. Tonight the axis of the surface ridge will slip a little further southeastward...while a modest clipper system over the Upper Great Lakes slowly pushes toward our area. Consequently...the general weak westerly flow across our region will gradually turn more west- southwesterly...strengthen...and become more sheared...while inversion heights will climb a little to around 7 kft over Lake Erie and to around 8 kft over Lake Ontario. With a cold enough airmass remaining in place for a lake response...this will result in light to modest lake snows developing east of both lakes this evening...with these then slowly becoming better organized and shifting northward to the Buffalo and Watertown areas overnight. At this point it still appears that the aforementioned cap and increasing shear should help to keep the lake snows on the weaker side through most of, if not all of tonight...which in tandem with the migratory nature of the snow should translate into total nighttime accums remaining confined to the 1 to 2 inch range. A notable increase in synoptic moisture will commence overnight tonight ahead of the approaching clipper system. Outside of these areas of lake snows... it will be generally dry with just some scattered snow showers or flurries...and nighttime lows ranging from the lower 20s across far interior sections to the upper 20s to near 30 along the lakeshores. On Thursday, steepening boundary layer lapse rates, increasing moisture, and still present cold 850Ts of around -9C, will help intensify the lake bands off of each lake. Both lake effect snowbands, one off of Lake Erie, the other off of Lake Ontario, will shift north to the Buffalo Metro and toward Watertown Thursday morning into the afternoon. Wind profiles are still suggesting enough shear to lower some of the snowfall potential. Meandering of the lake band over the northtowns and northwestern Jefferson County on Thursday will also help aid in reducing snow amounts that any one place in particular will receive. It is important to note, that if winds are less sheared, or weaker in general it will result in higher snowfall amounts over areas where the band(s) of snow persist the longest. Temperatures hovering around freezing will also help keep snow ratios down, with most areas on Thursday receiving around 3 to 5 inches of snow where the lake effect snow band persist the longest off of Lake Erie. Off of Lake Ontario, snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches will occur in areas of higher terrain and where the snow band persists the longest. As the clipper shifts from the Georgian Bay to western Quebec between Thursday morning and evening, it will drag a cold front across the area. Timing of this cold frontal passage will also be key to the timing of both lake effect snow bands to move south. If this cold front is slower to move through then that will help keep lake snows farther north for longer, resulting in some higher snowfall amounts. Gusty winds on Thursday will be strongest within and near the strongest portions of the lake effect snow bands, with some wind gusts to 35 MPH possible, resulting in areas of blowing snow and reducing visibilities even more so than with just the snowfall. Temperatures on Thursday will be in the lower to mid 30s, with the warmer areas being away from the lake snows and in the lower elevations. With temperatures in the low to mid 30s on Thursday, blowing snow will be limited some, but should still occur within areas of the strongest bands of snow as winds will also be strongest there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 KBUF suggests that shear is going to be a big factor in limiting this storm, which has been the case with basically all Buffalo metro storms in recent years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Looks like a shelf cloud coming off the lake right now from my office window. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Not seeing this 5"-8" the NWS has at KFZY They are looking at a tenth to a quarter on every meso, if that..This is basically just a cold front passage for most of the county, nothing sustained.. I'm not necessarily seeing the 6"-11" in my backyard as well.. Unless we see 15-1 ratios along the frontal passage , who knows, hopefully i'm wrong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Agreed, I'll be lucky to see an hr of sustained snow the next 10 days, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The latest in-house models on 4 and 7 show longer residency time in metro and both stations mentioned thunder snow, on 4 their in house model didnt leave the metro until about 1pm and 7 was similar...4-8 for 4 and 4-7 for 7. I think metro reaches the upper level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Spectrum news has great forecast out for our area Wolf, you and I are both lucky to see 1" by tomorrow at 7PM, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Keep an eye on sat as well... A shortwave trough will track across the eastern Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday. The added moisture and ascent from this wave will promote a chance of snow showers with the potential for some lake enhanced snows east of the lakes, where some minor accumulation will be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Good for KBUF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Yeah, that doesn't look to bad, i heard about a clipper but never checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I think the 3km NAM is out to lunch with this one lol HRDPS all the way baby! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 KART Nearing a foot now.. Reduced slightly in Oswego County.. Increased KBUF Slightly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 All kinds of shear, throughout the BL so I agree with the NWS about that limiting factor, but everything else looks decent. A brief event, perhaps heavy at times, any way you slice it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I think we see <1" with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Upstream radars look incredible...and all LES at this moment SW winds...superior looks the best but there is definitely a nice response. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Jefferson and Lewis upgraded to warning.. ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Greatest amounts across the Tug Hill, and also in the Watertown area. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph may also produce areas of blowing snow. * WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 1 AM EST Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Added to the list of WWA is Niagara and Orleans counties...i would not be surprised at all the see northern Erie and Genesee upgraded as the event draws near. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: KART Nearing a foot now.. Reduced slightly in Oswego County.. Increased KBUF Slightly.. I like that...not sure why they excluded Oswego county....maybe will upgrade us after it starts shifting south at a later time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Not if the NAM models are correct lol If the band is this thin we'd be lucky to see a few inches.. The predominant flow is out of the SW, our best shot was a slow moving band as the flow veers SW-NW behind the front.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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