Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Im starting to think some watches will go up tomorrow morning for Northern and Southern Erie counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Gonna have to nickel and dime our way to an avg Dec it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 BUF’s turn may finally be up. A quick hitter but everything seems to be lining up nicely. I’m sure the NWS office guys are going ape sh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I'll tell you what, all the in-house models on WIVB 4 and WKBW 7 show the band into the metro and Northtowns from about 5am to noon. Oddly Todd on 4 is only saying 2-4 for metro and 1-3 for Niagara county...just alone if rates are what is being forecast of 1-2" hour then double those totals to each sector and that would be logical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 NWS ClevelandVerified account @NWSCLE 6h6 hours ago More A look at some of the Ohio DOT cams near the Cuyahoga Valley National Park and Boston Heights area showing that localized #Cleveland #Effect #Snow band as of midday. Could see some accumulations with that band. http://www.ohgo.com #OHwx #PAwx #Ohio #ThisIsCLE #CLEwx #NWS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 27 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I'll tell you what, all the in-house models on WIVB 4 and WKBW 7 show the band into the metro and Northtowns from about 5am to noon. Oddly Todd on 4 is only saying 2-4 for metro and 1-3 for Niagara county...just alone if rates are what is being forecast of 1-2" hour then double those totals to each sector and that would be logical. You really gotta take their snow totals with a grain of salt. I like Todd Santos personality and think he is great for an on air met but their snow maps and correlation between what their own in house models show and what forecast map they come up with is just puzzling. Honestly channel 7 has the best mets now and I am beginning more and more to watch them for weathercasts even though I've been a loyal channel 4 guy my entire life (especially since the start of the WIVB blog 10+ years ago). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 31 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: You really gotta take their snow totals with a grain of salt. I like Todd Santos personality and think he is great for an on air met but their snow maps and correlation between what their own in house models show and what forecast map they come up with is just puzzling. Honestly channel 7 has the best mets now and I am beginning more and more to watch them for weathercasts even though I've been a loyal channel 4 guy my entire life (especially since the start of the WIVB blog 10+ years ago). They have an all star team. Andy Parker was the only Met to predict the October storm 2-3 days in advance. Parker, Paul, and Mentkowski>all the mets on the other 2 channels. I don't even bother with the other 2 stations, they're beyond terrible. Santos is the only one that is close to decent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: That also shows a good 6 to 10 inches for metro...this could be a good one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Band placement is gonna be the variable on this one for sure. All 3 of the locals are showing the band pretty far north early Thursday almost a SSW flow going into Niagara County. Seems the traditional models keep the band more over the metro and are more generous with the snow accumulations. The NWS and all the locals really aren’t advertising much in the way of accumulations. I will say it is a bit odd. Ch4 model is showing the band on the north side of the city for 6 hours from 5-11 but only calling for 1-3”? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Looks like next chance at a true synoptic system will be mid month, majority ecm indv members show a storm , granted mostly inland lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 0z 3K nam not as friendly.. General 3"-6" at 10-1.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Rgem still a very nice hit for the metro, really likes the SW flow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 0z 3K nam not as friendly.. General 3"-6" at 10-1.. Looks more right, goes from 1 foot to 4 inches. Gonna go with 2-4" for Buffalo. Max of 5" in Williamsville/Clarence 2" in south Buffalo and West Seneca. 3" in Hamburg. Yawn! Between this boring weather, the Bills, and the Sabres, someone wake me up January 1st. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem still a very nice hit for the metro, really likes the SW flow.. Bullseye downtown to Sloan, at 10:1 that’s over a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem still a very nice hit for the metro, really likes the SW flow.. I have to think this is a classic setup for the metro as the winds are going full fetch up the lake. That has, in the past, overcome not so great parameters. Will be interested in the placement of the NAM tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem still a very nice hit for the metro, really likes the SW flow.. Trust me the hi res nam has it nailed down. Bullseye on the Chautauqua Ridge with a lesser secondary maxima over the northtowns with a nice hole right over South Buffalo and West Seneca. Happens almost every event lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Kind of a glancing blow on the HIRES NAM, by the time it gets juicy its heading south. Still looks like a Solid 3 hours for Northern Erie which could be 6 inches or so. If it can get started earlier than that model depicts it might overachieve. Also, It does come right near rush hour which should be taken into account when they drop watches. I'm pulling for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Going with 3-6" across all of Erie County. Band is too transient for much more, unless we get some really intense snowfall rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 This would be like the most perfect metro hit would could hope for! Can’t ever underestimate a SW flow event. If it can get cranking early and not dance around too much could be a good hit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: This would be like the most perfect metro hit would could hope for! Can’t ever underestimate a SW flow event. If it can get cranking early and not dance around too much could be a good hit. The Hi-Res Canadian drops up to 18" across the Northtowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Seems like there's a pretty significant discrepancy in the models timing the frontal passage. I have to drive to Albany on Thursday afternoon, so as much as I'd love for the snow to park over the metro for a few extra hours, I'm hoping it pushes south by 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Buckle up BUF. Pretty great set up. Parameters are real nice. Thunder stuff. Only limiting factor is the transient nature of the band. I’ll be watching from Roc where we will see less than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 WWA for all of Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua Co's midnight to 7pm tomorrow night...4-7 Northtowns and 5-9 south and east of buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Models look to be pushing band through much quicker then yesterday’s runs. Don’t think any one area will be under the band for more than 2 hours or so which should greatly limit accumulations even if it’s cranking out 3”/hr and thundersbow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 It actually looks really good for Watertown, I'm surprised BUF only has them for WWA. I think they have a fair shot of over a foot with this one... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Occasional lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows, with the greatest amounts expected across the Tug Hill. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 1 AM EST Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel conditions could be hazardous at times, and could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 South east NJ seeing their own micro-climate today in the form of an inverted trough..Some area's could see 6+ while just down the road flurries.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Neat meso low spinning on Erie north of Cleveland this morning. Can’t post radar gif for some reason. Makes me a bit nervous for tomorrow as 3k NAM showed this meso perfectly on the money yesterday and that is the one model being hesitant on bringing the metro good snow tomorrow. RGEM and HRDPS and solid hits. Guess we will have to wait and see!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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