rochesterdave Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Next Weds still the time frame to watch for a big one. Tentative at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 I’m not great at this, but I think having the 540 all the way down to VA is a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 BTW, this is a new Doppler radar out of ROC. It should fill up the hole that exists in Wayne, N Cayuga, SYR and even NE Monroe (when snow is dry): https://www.whec.com/doppler 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Game changer for Wayne County. It’s amazing to me, this area is one of the only, non topo, holes in all of the US. Can’t wait to track those skinny bands that hammer N Rose and Hannibal. I used to drive from ROC to Oswego on 104 and Hannibal always had the most snow. Same band that gets Fulton (I think). Spent 2 years in SUNY Oswego- they need the stars to align just right to get hit- but when it does.... I only saw it once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Don't know where this band came from but its coming down at a decent clip as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 What an absolutely horrific time to have a small Lake band form over you with a temperature of 37°! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Game changer for Wayne County. It’s amazing to me, this area is one of the only, non topo, holes in all of the US. Can’t wait to track those skinny bands that hammer N Rose and Hannibal. I used to drive from ROC to Oswego on 104 and Hannibal always had the most snow. Same band that gets Fulton (I think). Spent 2 years in SUNY Oswego- they need the stars to align just right to get hit- but when it does.... I only saw it once. I went to school there for MET undergrad and experience some impressive events (2'+) and one (3'+) which led to the only class cancellation over 4 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 It’s really coming down here but at 34 it’s not really accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Nope and its been coming down for at least 2hr now with 0 acc to show for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Nope and its been coming down for at least 2hr now with 0 acc to show for it! Better to watch than rain, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 yeah, I guess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Still coming down at a decent clip, and if it was below freezing I'd have over 4" perhaps more. Looks like mid-winter conditions out there, wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 None of whats going on was even, forecasted today, at all cause its coming down, Maybe Phoenixwx will chime in cause its been snowing quite heavily for the past 6 hrs easy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Final snow tally’s in Oswego county (minus altmar) we need more spotters lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 The euro tried lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Yes we do, I'm 3 miles to the ESE of Palermo so I recorded close to 9 for a tally but its still snowing and has been all day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Just now, wolfie09 said: The euro tried lol Good catch as I didn't check the Euro but I did check the HHHR and it had nothing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 The returns don't look half bad either and its dropped below freezing and its began to stick and quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... This time period in general looks to be active, but with no indications at any large precip. events. This is the result of a large (longitudinal) low amplitude upper level trough over the northern half of the US. This trough will provide periodic bouts of synoptic moisture and combined with cold 850Ts there will be the potential for on and off lake effect snow through this time period. There is some indications that a better lake effect setup will occur for Wednesday into Thursday, and as we get closer to that time, model agreement should become better aligned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2018 Author Share Posted November 30, 2018 The euro weeklies verification score beyond week 2 has been terrible recently. It looks like any warm up will be transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: The euro weeklies verification score beyond week 2 has been terrible recently. It looks like any warm up will be transient. Yes in fact theres been a lot of chatter about multiple PV disruptions in the coming weeks and a larger one towards the middle to end of Dec which could really make winter stick around vs the ups and downs over the next 10 to 14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Quite silent in here today...so I'll try and stoke the fire a bit...the last 5 runs or so on the GFS ops have a Alberta clipped sliding just north of the great lakes and slowing up a bit between thus and Friday which shows a prolonged 12 to 18 hour window of SW winds during that time. The 850's look to be more than cold enough and the moisture has been there each run...this is reminding me of last year in early December (9th maybe?) Where the Northtowns of williamsville and Amherst Amherstpicked up between 8 and 12 inches. Something to watch at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2018 Author Share Posted November 30, 2018 The pattern looks quite lame for the next 2 weeks. Cutters, suppression, and not cold enough for good LES. Wake me up in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 There is high confidence that we will experience below normal temperatures through...and beyond (second weekend of Dec)... this forecast period. The bulk of the GFS ensemble members as well as the ECMWF deterministic run agree on a longwave trough remaining parked over the eastern half of the continent...with a generous number of solutions including a southward push of the notorious polar vortex to at least 60N as we move towards mid month. The somewhat highly amplified pattern is consistent with the ongoing weak El Nino. In terms of precipitation...the main concern during this period will be a relatively long period where a west to northwest flow could support headline worthy lake snows in the typical snowbelts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Got about an additional inch or two from the light snow this afternoon. Probably would have been more if it happened at night. Was moderate for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 There is high confidence that we will experience below normaltemperatures through...and beyond (second weekend of Dec)...this forecast period. The bulk of the GFS ensemble members aswell as the ECMWF deterministic run agree on a longwave troughremaining parked over the eastern half of the continent...with agenerous number of solutions including a southward push of thenotorious polar vortex to at least 60N as we move towards midmonth. The somewhat highly amplified pattern is consistent withthe ongoing weak El Nino. In terms of precipitation...the mainconcern during this period will be a relatively long period wherea west to northwest flow could support headline worthy lake snowsin the typical snowbeltsOnce again their focusing on a W-WNW flow starting Tuesday and lasting through Thursday but this time its plenty cold at all levels of the BL, with 850's down to about -12C to -15C!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 At least the Holidays will be cold and hopefully snowy because I wouldn't want to see snow for most of November and then we thaw through the Holidays. Thank God that's not happening this year!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Went up to Oswego today and it felt like the Twilight zone because there was snow up until about 3 miles from Oswego city, then once inside the City, there wasnt a flake of snow in the air, or otg,, weird! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 40 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Went up to Oswego today and it felt like the Twilight zone because there was snow up until about 3 miles from Oswego city, then once inside the City, there wasnt a flake of snow in the air, or otg,, weird! What a difference between the lake shore areas and inland parts of Oswego county this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now