Thinksnow18 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 NWS buf going with 2-4" for lake plains including buffalo...still think low end of that at best due to marginal temps and plenty of melting on the ground at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 LMAO East of Lake Ontario...there`s still quite a bit of uncertainty east of Lake Ontario however, as flow initially is still offshore early Tuesday as what`s left of the original low moves toward the east end of the Lake. Flow then gradually becomes more supportive of lake effect, but not til later Tuesday night or even Wednesday. Will therefore leave the watch in effect due to lower confidence. Looks like KBUF is forgetting about tomorrow altogether, interesting. On to Wed-Thurs when most snow will fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Places between Erie, PA and Jamestown, NY on the shoreline of Lake Erie will get up to 30" of snow from this event. If I were to pick a spot to see the most it would be between those two locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 My grandma and cousin live in Amherst and Buffalo, NY respectfully and they could see up to 8" of snow this week according to the NWS forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 The Erie lakeshore proper won’t see those totals, but they do have better thermal profiles than the immediate Ontario shoreline. The big snows will be inland up on the ridge. Erie lake shore is forecast for 3-4” at Dunkirk by NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 That's a nasty cold rain out there presently. When is Spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 41 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Ok, lock it in! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 House looks to be in a really good spot. The cabin appears to be locked and loaded for a pretty big snow. Will definitely be out there Tues and Weds night. May go tonight. Will take some photos and provide updates from the western end of the chautauqua ridge (just west of Peek Peak and just north of the Wilderness Lodge resorts) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, MAIDEsNow said: House looks to be in a really good spot. The cabin appears to be locked and loaded for a pretty big snow. Will definitely be out there Tues and Weds night. May go tonight. Will take some photos and provide updates from the western end of the chautauqua ridge (just west of Peek Peak and just north of the Wilderness Lodge resorts) Awesome! Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Hmm, hoping this isn't a winter of all NW flow events....still primed to get quite a bit of snow here. Sure hasn't been much westerly wind though. We lost ALOT of snow in the Tug this weekend. More than I thought we would. Still a 4 to 6 inch base of water-logged snow. That is down from the 16 to 20 inch base we had just a few days ago. Observations on trip home from TN yesterday (taken late last night): No snow pack until the Elk county, pa and Bradford, pa areas. Solid snow cover along 86. Second deepest snowpack of the trip was on the hills between Allegany and Dansville. Came down the hill on 36 and snowpack disappeared immediately in Dansville proper. Just a few patches from there up 390 to Rochester. This continued on 90 until Van Buren. Then snowpack increased from there up I 81 to the Parish exit where we got off. Even in this area, there were large patches of grass amongst a general snowpack. Solid snowcover did not return until we got to Amboy/Williamstown area. Then up 17 snowpack kept getting deeper as we arrived to Redfield. Even where I live, up the hill from Redfield, we have more snow than down in town. Temps varied from 31 down in the higher elevations of the Southern Tier to mid to upoer 30s in the Finger Lakes to 42 along 90 in Rochester area over towards Syracuse, then dropped to the mid 30s once we got to the Tug, with 34 at my house. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2018 Author Share Posted November 27, 2018 34 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Hmm, hoping this isn't a winter of all NW flow events....still primed to get quite a bit of snow here. Sure hasn't been much westerly wind though. We lost ALOT of snow in the Tug this weekend. More than I thought we would. Still a 4 to 6 inch base of water-logged snow. That is down from the 16 to 20 inch base we had just a few days ago. Observations on trip home from TN yesterday (taken late last night): No snow pack until the Elk county, pa and Bradford, pa areas. Solid snow cover along 86. Second deepest snowpack of the trip was on the hills between Allegany and Dansville. Came down the hill on 36 and snowpack disappeared immediately in Dansville proper. Just a few patches from there up 390 to Rochester. This continued on 90 until Van Buren. Then snowpack increased from there up I 81 to the Parish exit where we got off. Even in this area, there were large patches of grass amongst a general snowpack. Solid snowcover did not return until we got to Amboy/Williamstown area. Then up 17 snowpack kept getting deeper as we arrived to Redfield. Even where I live, up the hill from Redfield, we have more snow than down in town. Temps varied from 31 down in the higher elevations of the Southern Tier to mid to upoer 30s in the Finger Lakes to 42 along 90 in Rochester area over towards Syracuse, then dropped to the mid 30s once we got to the Tug, with 34 at my house. This map is updated daily for snow depth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2018 Author Share Posted November 27, 2018 Euro weeklies look toasty in weeks 3 and 4. Thinking short weather for Christmas around these parts. It's warm from Mid December to the first week of January which coincides with the MJO cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2018 Author Share Posted November 27, 2018 1 hour ago, MAIDEsNow said: House looks to be in a really good spot. The cabin appears to be locked and loaded for a pretty big snow. Will definitely be out there Tues and Weds night. May go tonight. Will take some photos and provide updates from the western end of the chautauqua ridge (just west of Peek Peak and just north of the Wilderness Lodge resorts) Both houses should be in a good spot for this event, looking forward to see which one gets more. I'd wager the one on the ridge in Chautauqua county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro weeklies look toasty in weeks 3 and 4. Thinking short weather for Christmas around these parts. It's warm from Mid December to the first week of January which coincides with the MJO cycle. That seems to be happening a lot in recent years, as in the past decade plus. Pretty sure it’s just random probability distribution as nothing else makes sense, but it kind of $ucks timing wise. It’s like we get a pre-January thaw, or the January thaw happens in mid/late December. I could be off on this but that’s my perception anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro weeklies look toasty in weeks 3 and 4. Thinking short weather for Christmas around these parts. It's warm from Mid December to the first week of January which coincides with the MJO cycle. Are we currently in phase 8? If so where is the consistent cold? I guess I look at it this way if aren't scoring at the lower elevations, and we've had chances, then we might as well pull for a trend to milder conditions which will lengthen the lake effect opportunities in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Take it FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Models can't resolve where snow or rain will fall in this event 24hrs out, and I'm supposed to believe the weeklies from a model that showed warmth for Thanksgiving week. How'd that work out? I'll worry about weeks 3-4 when it's the Sunday before week 3, lol! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Seems like one of those winters as we get closer to events models get colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 19 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Take it FWIW If I see 14" in the next 72 hours I will literally eat a piece of my shoe and record it and post it on here. Where are they getting this stuff from? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 The Tug seems to be losing precip with every run. Looks like Wayne Cty gets the Jack and its getting to be the norm as of late. NE Wayne cty gets crushed, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Subbed a bit early, lol, had to. This is starting to look better and better for So Oswego cty and with the band meandering in the same vicinity for 2.5 days. Suffice to say that if it gets stuck over one area, someone can get quite a bit of snow! Oswego is looking a bit better but I think to your South will be the lion share but time will tell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Not so sure about that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Definitely some elevation dependency going on.. Although i'm only at 600 feet asl and the models have me on the edge of decent accumulations.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Well it seems like everyone ONLY likes to look at the Euro, so that's what I posted, but I don't believe it anyway! I'm sure there's a model out there or an ensamble member that Jacks the Cuse too, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Definitely some elevation dependency going on.. Although i'm only at 600 feet asl and the models have me on the edge of decent accumulations.. I think elevation will be the key with this one, with marginal temps. It’s still November after all so can’t get despondent about it. 6 or 7” isn’t unreasonable IMBY which would put us close to 30” for the month, with a Nov avg of about 9”. Pretty Boss overall. Now let’s queue up that Joe Bastardi ditty about the “weather in November the winter remembers...”or something like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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