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Upstate/Eastern New York


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My 10,000th post! It's been fun tracking with ya'll the last decade or so. I truly enjoy all aspects of winter almost equally. You'll see me in the plains forums for severe, southeast forums for the hurricanes, and the GL for snowstorms/LES. I hop around which has led to this post count. I've learned so much about meteorology and climatology from these forums, and thank all those knowledgeable posters on here. (Really wish LEK would post more, he's one of the best on here!) Still have some high hopes for this winter, hopefully we can keep it civil in here. It is just snow after all, there are more important things in life! ^_^

Still looks good for Tug and Western Southern Tier (especially higher elevations) Thinking lake effect snow warnings for both locations. The last few days model runs have changed quite a bit. I think everyone gets a decent amount between Tues/Weds. 2-4" for everyone. There is a ton of moisture being thrown back as the primary is the main low now. The last week of model runs with that crazy retrograding low never came to fruition. First call 1-2' for the tug and around a foot for southern tier. 

The next few weeks look like a pattern shake up. PNA negative, EPO negative, NAO positive, WPO neutral, AO neutral. I like the look if we can get a little more pacific help. We should experience lots of ups and downs. A few days below average, a few above, rinse and repeat. 

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I don’t want take the fun out of it for everyone. Carol should be ok. She should have a little fun. 

And that one hermit at the top of the hill in Springville. Him too, he might need the snow brush. 

nam3km_asnow_us_61.pnglol!! 

Its gonna be fun to track. Weirdo scenario. Maybe a good one to take a drive and take some pics! :bike:

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Hello, I thought I should sorta say hi before I started to post randomly. I just moved up to Fort Drum from the far southern Kentucky area so while I know a far amount about severe thunderstorm forecasting and lingo I feel a tad bit lost when reading about snow. But basically I’m just happy to see any appreciable winter weather. After 7 years I’m already in heaven. I’m looking forward to learning. 

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41 minutes ago, Shea said:

Hello, I thought I should sorta say hi before I started to post randomly. I just moved up to Fort Drum from the far southern Kentucky area so while I know a far amount about severe thunderstorm forecasting and lingo I feel a tad bit lost when reading about snow. But basically I’m just happy to see any appreciable winter weather. After 7 years I’m already in heaven. I’m looking forward to learning. 

Welcome!

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47 minutes ago, Shea said:

Hello, I thought I should sorta say hi before I started to post randomly. I just moved up to Fort Drum from the far southern Kentucky area so while I know a far amount about severe thunderstorm forecasting and lingo I feel a tad bit lost when reading about snow. But basically I’m just happy to see any appreciable winter weather. After 7 years I’m already in heaven. I’m looking forward to learning. 

Are you active duty? Sounds like you were at Ft Campbell and got PCS orders to Drum. Anyhow, welcome - I’m in NE Buffalo and if this winter is like recent history you’ll hear a lot of me bitching about IMBY <1” forecasts a lot.

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in a nutshell

KBUF

On Tuesday night into Wednesday, model guidance suggests a trough
will pivot around the upper low from north to south. This will
enhance moisture, and even though 850mb temperatures will warm
slightly it still will be just cold enough to support snow. This
event will have both a synoptic and lake effect component with some
lake and orographic enhancement. Deeper moisture will support higher
snowfall rates, but there may not be singular convergence band.
Orographic lift will play a key role, with significantly more snow
expected across higher terrain even though there should be some snow
accumulation in all areas. There are still model differences in
timing and wind direction which will have a significant impact on
snowfall amounts. However, significant amounts are possible east of
the lakes with this event.

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I’m not, but my husband is and that’s exactly what happened. We spent a few years at Fort Hood prior to Campbell so it’s been a LONG time without winter. We are from Colorado though so we aren’t a stranger to it. I didn’t really start being interested in weather until the December 2015 tornado outbreak in the south. I’m glad I get to expand my horizons beyond severe weather. 

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4 minutes ago, Shea said:

I’m not, but my husband is and that’s exactly what happened. We spent a few years at Fort Hood prior to Campbell so it’s been a LONG time without winter. We are from Colorado though so we aren’t a stranger to it. I didn’t really start being interested in weather until the December 2015 tornado outbreak in the south. I’m glad I get to expand my horizons beyond severe weather. 

You should learn a lot about the fickleness of lake effect snow this winter where the difference of a few degrees in wind direction will leave some smiling and some crying, lol. 

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