CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 28 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: That hasn’t stopped the NWS lol The ECMWF has been the more climatologically realistic looking of the packages. The 00z guidance from both models show much more run to run consistency with the ECMWF while the GFS is starting to `come around` to the ECMWF solution. This makes sense climatologically..and also due to the fact that the ECMWF has notably better assimilation of initial data than its counterpart Yeah I know, whatever, I' done trying to figure out the weather and what it will do, lol, tired of being wrong! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 65 degrees down here in TN today! I will be coming home just in time for more winter on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Quote All's I see on the models is rain, rain and more rain, lol. It gets chilly in between systems with temps in the low-mid 30's mostly with the warmest being Monday at42F. Even during this next LES event, when its not snowing, it should get above freezing both days during the event. A great event, nonetheless, but would be even better with temps in the mid-upper 20's! Still Nov, we've all been spoiled with all of this cold, as of late, but this is certainly not the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 I can barely remember a more disappointing evolution of a ‘promised’ pattern. Thousands of wide eyed tweets about the end of November along the East Coast have been smashed! Lol Its like someone sent you a beautifuly wrapped gift only to discover, as you eagerly unwrapped it, that it was a bag of burning sh.t. Long range has been ridiculously bad. Tug is the only area looking realistically good. That 12z CMC was an interesting run. I honestly don’t believe that any of the models have a grip on the upcoming storm once it gets into Michigan. It looks like the primary just degrades near Toronto while a coastal tries to ride up to Gulf of Maine and then retrograde back into the primary???!?!whaaaaat? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Temps are gonna be an issue with this next LES event as 850's don't go above -8C? Am I missing something here? This is from the EURO. The GFS is no different, in fact, its a bit warmer at both H850 and 2M. IDK, maybe I'm not seeing something, lol. How are we gonna see LES Monday evening with 850's in the single digits on the + side of 0? At 06Z Tuesday, the GFS has us at -1C as does the EURO. 12Z Wed its -7C over Matt and Carol's house on the Tug and, imo, thats just not gonna cut it unless I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 30 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I can barely remember a more disappointing evolution of a ‘promised’ pattern. Thousands of wide eyed tweets about the end of November along the East Coast have been smashed! Lol Its like someone sent you a beautifuly wrapped gift only to discover, as you eagerly unwrapped it, that it was a bag of burning sh.t. Long range has been ridiculously bad. Tug is the only area looking realistically good. That 12z CMC was an interesting run. I honestly don’t believe that any of the models have a grip on the upcoming storm once it gets into Michigan. It looks like the primary just degrades near Toronto while a coastal tries to ride up to Gulf of Maine and then retrograde back into the primary???!?!whaaaaat? Lol It's really not a bad a bad pattern as storms traverse the area every 2 days or so, and with downstream blocking, the parent low has no choice but to hand off energy and redevelop so its no wonder why the models are having difficulty cause who knows where and when these storms do redevelop. IMO, due to the early arrival of this pattern, the seasonal Jet hasn't come South yet enough or else these systems would not get to Ontario CA before redevelopment so hopefully this changes because if not, it may be a looooonnnnnnggggg Winter, with not much to show for it, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Nam is no better, Temp wise, but maybe I'm looking to hard at temps, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Euro actually has wide spread 6 to 10 inches along south shore. Lake enhanced storm. Just after end of nam just like the canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 That’s cold enough for lake effect in late November.. With plenty of synoptic moisture.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Temps don’t go above freezing until the band goes WNW lol look how it’s warmer to the north, once wind shift out of the north we actually warm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 NWS seems to think -8C is fine for heavy LES so I guess it'll work, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 I don't like the set-up at all, but what do I know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Look at the GFS Temps start to warm when they go NW and they don’t cool down overnight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Bro, your in a different world than we are, lol. You literally get snow with any wind direction so if I were you, I'd look for wind anywhere from 360 to 240, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Yeah, a pretty interesting solution so say the least but the question is, How wrong is it, lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Another system that has been popping up on models.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Still rain but yesterday this was pegged in minnesota I counted about 7 storms over the next 14 days on the gfs, active to say the least, rain or snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Euro shows how volatile the situation is.. The low near the lakes is probably about 50 miles different then 12z and its predominantly wnw/nw flow.. Gfs still keeps everything north, even for me.. I believe the bands will move around enough to give everyone in oswego county their share.. Lot still to be determined, stay tuned.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 yep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Definitely spreads the love around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 A tick or two colder on the Euro and rain will be taken out of the forecast entirely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Look at hr 36hr on tonight's 00Z, compared to its 12Z 850 temp. Almost 5 degrees colder at H850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 A little late with this as we are currently thawing, but I measured just over 2in of ice on our pond yesterday and walked out on it on Nov 24th! This property has been in our family since 1960 and my father and uncle think this may be the earliest date to walk on the pond in that time. Regardless, it’s impressive for this time of year and a nice reminder that us snow lovers are getting spoiled by this pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Up until WED morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Nam starting to get into better range.. West flow all day tues into wed morning when flow start to turn NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 What am I missing? The entire 12z NAM gives BUF-SYR thruway from 1.4”-3.8”. Total. With marginal temps. Ski country and the Tug do moderately better but it sure doesn’t look impressive. I guess it’s an interesting set up. Kinda spring like with elevation depending totals. Only way this thing impresses is if it really winds up (even more than its showing) east of us and drags down some cold. I think the early start raised my expectations too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Bro WTF are you looking at.. The Nam give the tug 12-18 " by WED morning.. The Nam only goes out 84 hours till WED morning.. NW flow has not even started yet!! While cold temperatures and synoptic moisture stay in place into Thursday, a passing surface trough will likely cause winds to become more northwesterly and lake effect bands to shift south and become multiple bands especially across Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Tuesday and Tuesday night, the system will transition into a lake effect snow event in favored westerly flow areas. Lake effect parameters appear to be improving during this period. Flow is expected to become well aligned from the west and this could set up nice plumes of lake snow east of both lakes. A little early to pin down exact amounts, but a significant lake event is possible during this time. A large closed low will be tracking across the Northeast Wednesday-Thursday night. A westerly flow is likely Wednesday with lake effect snow showers ongoing east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. This will likely bring significant snowfall accumulations across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and Southern Erie and Wyoming counties as well as the Tug Hill Plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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