Upstate/Eastern New York

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

And the NAM says let’s retrograde!



.

[Thinksnow18]

This forecast for the next 2 weeks is starting to take a toll on our number of people interested imby weather. With what looks to be southern tier snows-tug hill snows followed by mild spells then wash, rinse repeat southern tier-tug hill LES...ugh...thank God the Sabres are smokin hot.

[rochesterdave]

Upcoming pattern is more typical of late November. IMBY folks got spoiled by mid November. 

I proudly count myself among them. My interest is not vested in the micro climates of Cattaraugus or Lewis County. But those two people should have fun racking up their way way to 300”. 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Congrats Carol, as she'll be the only one measuring the next several days, lol!

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

Wait, Wolfie will definitely get in on some of the LO action, then there's Matt, who should have a big big smile on his face, lol!

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[mattny88]

hey guys  i know its early and still a few days out but what are the early projections for the wind flw for this upcoming lake effect efect..do you think the winds can veer for a 290 degree flow for a time so that the city of oswego can get into the lake effect band..im wondering if that band that sets up tuesday will meander around to the south or for the most part will it be confined mainly to the tug on more of a 270 degree flow...let me know your guys thoughts??

[wolfie09]

[CNY_WX]

If the Euro verifies we’ll be wearing shorts, lol. 

[wolfie09]

Euro was a little "whiter" with the synoptic system..

kbgm

 One point of
uncertainty, is that ECMWF has slowed down the exit of the
system Monday, with upper low opening and getting pulled back
somewhat towards a larger upper low descending into the western
Great Lakes. This could mean a period of rain changing to wet
snow across the northern zones Monday night, before the
already-expected transition to a lake effect snow regime
Tuesday through Thursday.

 

Monday

Rain before 5pm, then rain and snow. High near 42. Southeast wind 11 to 14 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday Night

Snow showers. Low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

1 hour ago, CNY_WX said:

If the Euro verifies we’ll be wearing shorts, lol. 

Bring it!

[wolfie09]

[CNY-WXFREAK]

The Euro is suffering from something because it simply makes no sense given its H500 depiction for next week and beyond.  Besides that, its once again suffering from its usual bias of holding back energy in the West, creating an ever present trough in the West, or so it seems.  Any prolonged warm periods the models see, need to be questioned, imo, considering the curent state of some of our bigger players on the field.  You simply can't have an Alution Low present, with out some kind of downstream ridging, which would put a ridge along the WC and then a trough in the East, pretty simple stuff, but somehow it see's ridging all the way to the EC, sorry, not gonna happen!

[CNY-WXFREAK]

3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

If this comes to fruition, We'll be looking at at least a foot or more in the belts to the East and SE of the Lake, but I don't believe it.  Models seem to be having issues with resolving this system, interesting.

[wolfie09]

Yup, carol is seeing feet lol

 

 

[wolfie09]

Euro is a huge hit for the county, nearly 2" imby 

Eventually goes WNW/NW and nails the southern zones..

My lattitude may finally come into play as i'm just SE of Richland, 4 miles NW of Altmar..

[wolfie09]

A view for all..

[wolfie09]

Fv3 from earlier..

[wolfie09]

Gfs says fook you all..

Mainly sw/wsw flow, off Ontario..

[wolfie09]

And the German, which if i'm not mistaking is a littler higher rez then some of the other global models..

Mainly a straight west wind..

[wolfie09]

Euro has Lake effect starting late monday night, would think watches will be issued tomorrow if necessary..

[TugHillMatt]

I have been down in sunny 60 degree Tennessee the past few days, so haven't been paying too much attention. Will be home on Monday. Stupid GFS...consistently showed West wind for days and then changes its tune. On the EURO, I am just below the 2" line. I will gladly take the Icon, as a west wind perfectly nails my location. Looks like between Carol and me...somebody will get quite the snowfall....hedged slightly in her favor. She does better in a sw wind...

[wolfie09]

It’s a little comical but with the greatest anomalies to the south and south west, we actually warm up from a northerly wind lol

850 mb temps just to the south are -10c and -6c north..

Enjoy that one day warm up lol 

From afar it’s lower 40’s if that, verbatim..

[mattny88]

How much snow accumulation you see with the southern edge of the band affecting the city of oswego?  You think the models will veer more of a wnw component  Wolfie?

[wolfie09]

Definitely fits the pattern we have been in..

Another dual low scenario..

This is supposed to be our “warm up”

[wolfie09]

Euro has  surface temps in the single digits-teens pre storm..

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Once again, I would seriously advise people to look Beyond the euro, its having big-time time issues even the European Meteorological Center stated such

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[tim123]

Gfs actually does better in its ideas with long range only to loose it in mid range only to come back to original ideas.dont know why. But something i have noticed over the years

[wolfie09]

That hasn’t stopped the NWS lol

The ECMWF has been the more climatologically realistic looking of
the packages.

 

The 00z guidance from
both models show much more run to run consistency with the ECMWF
while the GFS is starting to `come around` to the ECMWF solution.
This makes sense climatologically..and also due to the fact that the
ECMWF has notably better assimilation of initial data than its
counterpart

[CNY-WXFREAK]

6 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

I have been down in sunny 60 degree Tennessee the past few days, so haven't been paying too much attention. Will be home on Monday. Stupid GFS...consistently showed West wind for days and then changes its tune. On the EURO, I am just below the 2" line. I will gladly take the Icon, as a west wind perfectly nails my location. Looks like between Carol and me...somebody will get quite the snowfall....hedged slightly in her favor. She does better in a sw wind...

I think your in a better spot than Carol for this event but we'll see.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

14 hours ago, mattny88 said:

hey guys  i know its early and still a few days out but what are the early projections for the wind flw for this upcoming lake effect efect..do you think the winds can veer for a 290 degree flow for a time so that the city of oswego can get into the lake effect band..im wondering if that band that sets up tuesday will meander around to the south or for the most part will it be confined mainly to the tug on more of a 270 degree flow...let me know your guys thoughts??

Not looking all that good right now as the band may stay just to your North the majority of the time so don't look at the radar the next few days cause you just might break whatever device your watching it on, lol!