BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2018 Author Share Posted November 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah, Gfs a little colder like last night's euro.. Unfortunately the system off the coast takes to long to get going, at least in terms of synoptic precip.. Yeah either way the pattern going forward looks promising for late Nov./Early Dec. Should be lots of potential for synoptic and if we can get some colder air LES. It looks transient though, very up and down with some warm ups in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2018 Author Share Posted November 22, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: As a N.Y. Ranger fan I have to pipe in. The Rangers are hot, 9-1-1 in their last 11 games. They are now tied for first in the Metropolitan division. 19 year old Filip Chytil scored a goal in his 5th straight game as the Rangers beat the Islanders 5-0 last night. Got a really good player there in Chytil. Lundqvist is on my fantasy team so I’m enjoying it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 45 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Here is the 12z Canadian Looks like some pretty good enhancement/Les on a NW flow, on the backside.. Still not much cold..Granted the low is right over us lol Is the energy onshore yet? If not, there's still time for some changes with better data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Gfs has it entering the Pac NW tomorrow night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Euro remaining consistent, 48 hours of W/WSW flow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2018 Author Share Posted November 22, 2018 Definitely a white thanksgiving 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Monday Night Rain showers likely before midnight, then rain and snow showers likely between midnight and 2am, then snow showers likely after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Snow showers. High near 35. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Night Snow. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Wednesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Models are beginning to hone in on late Tuesday as the period when bands of LES will form to the east or east-northeast of the Lakes as 850 hPa temperatures plummet to around -8 to -10C. A shortwave passing through will likely oscillate the bands some Tuesday night as they intensify, with activity then settling southeast of the Lakes Wednesday. Off Lake Ontario this activity of lake effect snow may even clip the Rochester area as winds veer to northwesterly. This northwest flow will maintain cold air through the end of the period with lake effect snow diminishing as drier air filters into the lower levels. High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be near the freezing mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Tug gets annihilated on the FV3 Gfs now showing mostly a WSW flow.. Fv3 and euro are more westerly-WSW Icon mostly SW flow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Temps are dropping below 0, even in the lower elevations, forecast low was -1.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 My thermometer just hit the big goose egg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Yeah this is just nuts, seriously though, as I'd be pretty surprised if we didnt shatter some record/s today!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Gfs is game for a long lasting lake effect event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. The next 10 days look like crap. The models have had a terrible time with long term so far this season. A few days ago the set up looked like a lock for an EC storm, then it degraded into a weird split flow retro and now it just looks like a mess of weak, random impulses. Just gross looking for at very least the next 5 days. Tug might get a few inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Looks like the potential for a little more then a few inches on the tug lol And that's coming from a global model.. Juts matters which way the wind blows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Euro with a little quicker transfer and thus a little colder with more moisture.. NW flow on the backside.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...There is high confidence that temperatures will average belownormal...possibly by as much as 10 degrees...during this period.This forecast is supported by strong consensus among the mediumrange ensembles that a large closed low centered over the UpperGreat Lakes at the start of the period will take several days to`open up` and rotate out across the Canadian maritimes to theopen waters of the North Atlantic.H85 temperatures over the Lower Great lakes during this period willaverage between -8 and -10c...which will certainly be low enough tosupport lake snows downwind of both Lakes Erie and Ontario. Whilethere is some spread in the variance of the steering winds betweenthe ECMWF and GEFS ensembles...there is the risk for a prolongedwesterly fetch lake snow event. This would target the Tug Hill andportions of the Southern Tier with several feet of snow...so staytuned for refinements in the forecast and possible watches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 I’m sure things are gonna flip flop a dozen times over the weekend but at least we might have something to watch here! CIPS is popping up some nice analogs as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 NWS forecast low, -3. Actual low -12.4. Pretty impressive for November! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Starting to think outside of the westerly and northwesterly snow belt regions the rest of us will be nickle and dimeing our way to decent snowfalls accumulations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 22 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Starting to think outside of the westerly and northwesterly snow belt regions the rest of us will be nickle and dimeing our way to decent snowfalls accumulations Agreed, and Lake Erie is 3 degrees below normal already. Not going to be a good year, this is what happens when the cold comes too early. Give me 60s until mid November every year. Long range looks like a roller coaster with some decent warmups, so we may hold on to some lake warmth for a little while longer. Erie PA is going to have back to back record breaking years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: This excites about 2 people in the entire NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 Should see a warmup in beginning of Dec as PNA goes negative and EPO/WPO go positive. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Should see a warmup in beginning of Dec as PNA goes negative and EPO/WPO go positive. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Give me 55/43 for a couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, WNash said: Give me 55/43 for a couple of weeks. Tough to get that this time of year. Next Sunday looks quite warm, potential at 60 degs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Tough to get that this time of year. Next Sunday looks quite warm, potential at 60 degs. That’s ahead of a big storm that cuts through the western lakes. Looks to be warm and wet here. Parts of the high plains and Minnesota could see a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Tough to get that this time of year. Next Sunday looks quite warm, potential at 60 degs. THAT we don't need!!! If the forecast verifies this week with heavy LES in the typical belts then there will be some serious flooding at catt creek and southern tier subsidiaries. Btw what happened to cold start to December?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 This is what happened lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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