BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: SW flow lake events are more rare just because of the climate of the Great Lakes. Not the main wind flow. But when they do happen...BAM! In Michigan, I lived in an area that was amazing during SW flow events, but struggled with many other wind directions. Plus, snow can melt rapidly when a Sw flow of mild air from the gulf works up. When you live in an area like Buffalo or Watertown, you definitely need to be patient in waiting for the big events. You guys still have all of December at least. W/SW events are rare, but much more common across the Eastern than Western GL. W/SW winds probably happen off of Erie 30-40% of the time. You need SW to get up to northern erie, but sometimes we can get hit with a W flow in the southern suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 53 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: SW flow lake events are more rare just because of the climate of the Great Lakes. Not the main wind flow. But when they do happen...BAM! In Michigan, I lived in an area that was amazing during SW flow events, but struggled with many other wind directions. Plus, snow can melt rapidly when a Sw flow of mild air from the gulf works up. When you live in an area like Buffalo or Watertown, you definitely need to be patient in waiting for the big events. You guys still have all of December at least. Watertown has actually had multiple great LES events in recent years. Buffalo used to get a good event every few years, but it has been over a decade since a big event hit the city from downtown to the north. There have been several great chances for a big snow on the last five years, but every time there’s a great set-up, one variable - shear, moisture, flow, temp profile - changes during the nowcast. It’s either a very bad run of luck or a climatological problem. Unfortunately, it keeps happening. Last year we got bailed out by several moderate synoptic events in the last third of the season, but we have had a run of anomalously low LES years recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 51 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: For S&G Pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Some "Mexico bay" enhancement so to speak..On a NW-NNW trajectory .. I have been noticing this show up for the last day or so , big fluff factor, gonna be interesting later this evening/overnight..Radar wont look great but could be snowing decent..(includes some falling precip, especially north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 How did Buffalo do with the snow this morning? I could see my own snowstorm here on the coast of Cape Cod, from Ocean Effect Snows, the equivalent to Lake Effect Snows you guys get. It could be a dangerous day to travel tomorrow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Euro looks terrific, for "some" , especially the tug ...Starting late monday night lasting into wed morning.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Some "Mexico bay" enhancement so to speak..On a NW-NNW trajectory .. I have been noticing this show up for the last day or so , big fluff factor, gonna be interesting later this evening/overnight..Radar wont look great but could be snowing decent..(includes some falling precip, especially north) I like the Penfield/ Walworth area for a few inches of fluff tonight. Could get interesting if the dry doesn’t kill it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Streamer off Georgian Bay is feeding a developing band over Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 The models have that band sweeping west over time tonight eventually reaching buffalo south...oh wait buffalo doesn't get snow...nevermind the models are broken... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 The sun is out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The sun is out! The sun is out here, too but the temperature keeps dropping. Down to 26. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 hour ago, WNash said: Watertown has actually had multiple great LES events in recent years. Buffalo used to get a good event every few years, but it has been over a decade since a big event hit the city from downtown to the north. There have been several great chances for a big snow on the last five years, but every time there’s a great set-up, one variable - shear, moisture, flow, temp profile - changes during the nowcast. It’s either a very bad run of luck or a climatological problem. Unfortunately, it keeps happening. Last year we got bailed out by several moderate synoptic events in the last third of the season, but we have had a run of anomalously low LES years recently. How much snow, excluding southern Erie, has the Buffalo area had so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: How much snow, excluding southern Erie, has the Buffalo area had so far? 6" They picked up 1.5" today. Erie PA: 15.9" Syracuse: 15.7" Rochester: 10.6” The last 3 haven't updated yet with today’s totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Wait the airport has had 6"??? I lI've about 2 maybe 3 miles north as the crow flies and I'd be shocked if we had 1/2 of that. Now if they're including melted frozen thats melting on the grass but not a snowboard them I can't day that's false. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 38 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Wait the airport has had 6"??? I lI've about 2 maybe 3 miles north as the crow flies and I'd be shocked if we had 1/2 of that. Now if they're including melted frozen thats melting on the grass but not a snowboard them I can't day that's false. https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=buf 4.5" season total 1.5" today 6" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Just had a pretty heavy squall set up over Irondequoit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Wait the airport has had 6"??? I lI've about 2 maybe 3 miles north as the crow flies and I'd be shocked if we had 1/2 of that. Now if they're including melted frozen thats melting on the grass but not a snowboard them I can't day that's false. Yeah I live a couple miles due west of the north side of the airport and we have had less than three inches total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 57 minutes ago, WNash said: Yeah I live a couple miles due west of the north side of the airport and we have had less than three inches total. I was incorrect its 5.3". https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=buf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 54 minutes ago, WNash said: Yeah I live a couple miles due west of the north side of the airport and we have had less than three inches total. Sounds about right to me. Have a seasonal total of 8.7" here so far but just 3 miles to my ESE on the WS/Elma border they've had over a foot so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 Current temp departure is -4.8 deg. for the month, pretty substantial October ended up negative too at -.3 deg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Potential is obviously there, but much can go wrong from now till then lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 Springville is at 33" already for the year, Warsaw 32", Perrysburg 24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 kbuf On Tuesday this upper level trough will become negatively tilted, and a new surface low will emerge to the lee of the Appalachians. This new surface low will bring impacts along the east coast, with lingering surface troughing back across WNY continuing the threat for showers...of which most will be snow as much colder air aloft wraps across the Eastern Great Lakes. This colder air, with 850 hPa temperatures dropping to -10 to -12C...will likely yield bands of lake effect snow...which at this time may be downwind of the Great Lakes on a westerly flow. However there is still some model differences in the position of the upper level low and where it forms a cut off...that will influence the surface wind direction. Regardless there will be chances for lake effect snow through the end of the period with temperatures again returning to below normal, with highs Wednesday possibly remaining below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 I guess Binghamton put out a good forecast with the advisory today. They had two to five with locally higher amounts if the band set up anywhere for any length of time like for instance the way it is now in the northern Finger LakesJust a brutally cold Thanksgiving Day in store. Just amazes me how this shot of brutally Arctic air arrived perfectly on Thanksgiving Eve and will last through Thanksgiving and then leave the day after followed by a brief but significant warm up!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 What a horrifically dry airmass. If this Arctic shot would have been accompanied by at least a bit of synoptic moisture then we would have been in business but it is wickedly dry!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 OT, but Sabres keep this sh$&%^t up please. I’ll take 20” seasonal total at BUF for playoffs!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Think webster penfield walworth macedon are in like for a few inches over nite as winds die down nnw wind likes roc embayment funnels a bit if convergence in this area 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2018 Author Share Posted November 22, 2018 38 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: OT, but Sabres keep this sh$&%^t up please. I’ll take 20” seasonal total at BUF for playoffs!! I can’t believe this team. Shocked we’re playing so well without ROR. I’m ready for some playoff hockey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I can’t believe this team. Shocked we’re playing so well without ROR. I’m ready for some playoff hockey. Why? ROR was an overrated centerman with a bad attitude. Team is infused with young talent with Middlestadt and Dahlin as well as Eichel, Okposo, Rinehart, Pominville all stepping up in a big way then add in the offseason additions of Skinner, Sheary, Bergland, Sobotka, and a very competent goalie with Hutton and it's no surprise they're playing as well as they are. This is a good team with people who actually want to be here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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